A Gambler's Analysis of UFC 85: Bedlam - Matt Hughes vs. Thiago Alves

Mike Fagan and I decided to break down some questions that gamblers (especially rookies) may have on tomorrow's UFC 85 Card.  Read on for some of our analysis and if you have any questions ask in the comments and hopefully we can get back to you.  We're using the Bodog odds just to have one standard set of numbers to work off of.  But both Mike and I are big advocates of shopping around for value .

Easy question first.  Who is getting overlooked most on this card?

Mike Fagan:  I'd have to say Jason Day.  While you can get a better price elsewhere, the +260 line still probably has some marginal value.  Bisping is a favorite for a reason, but Day is a solid, experienced fighter who is coming off of a couple of wins against solid mid-tier fighters.

Brent Brookhouse:  Jess Liaudin at +200 for me.  The Marcus Davis and Paul Kelly fights showed some pretty big holes in Taylor's game in my eyes.  Liaudin was kind of a sexy pick for a lot of people going into the Davis fight and just plain got caught.  His win/loss record isn't great but I think he has the better all-around game coming in.  If we look at records since 2006 Taylor is 3-3 (1 NC) with three stoppages but he has also been subbed twice.  On the other hand Jess is 5-1 with 5 stoppages (1 KO, 2 TKO, 2 Subs) and he was KO'ed by Davis.  I just don't see how he is sitting at +200.

I'd also say Jorge Rivera but I'll get to him in a second...

Mike Fagan:  He isn't a big dog anymore, but I'd say away from Alves at the current line (+160).  If you were smart enough to jump on him when it opened around +250, I think you did well.  I think Thiago is going to have a hard time keeping this on the feet.

I'll be interested to see if or how the line reacts to Alves coming in at 174.

Brent Brookhouse:  I actually don't like Day at +260.  I've talked a lot on the site about the reasons I like Bisping at 185 and how slick his boxing was in the McCarthy fight.  Coming off an impressive win I think a lot of people are really high on Day but Bisping is fighting in front of his home crowd, he has a lot to prove after the Hamill fight, and is much improved.  So I guess you either look at things through Mike's pro-Day glasses or you look at things like me.

Mike Fagan:  Not really.  The big three fights on the card (Hughes-Alves, Marquardt-Leities, Vera-Werdum) all moved how I thought they would.  If I had to pick a fight, though, I'm a little surprised the Swick-Davis fight has slightly moved towards Swick.  I think Davis is a little more well-rounded and should have better standup.  Swick's height and reach could give him trouble though.

Brent Brookhouse:  I'm more surprised by the way the lines DIDN'T move on Jorge Rivera.  Rivera is coming off a good (albeit not entirely shocking) win over Kendall Grove whereas Kampmann is coming off 15 months of inactivity due to injury.  On top of that Martin doesn't have the kind of KO power you'd like to see in a guy who would generally be defined as a "striker" (he does have a decent ground game though) and Rivera can cut you up with elbows and has enough power to stop someone.  The longer the fight goes the better things are going to look for Jorge I figure.  But I'm shocked that he is still sitting at +200, I figured it'd move to around +175-180 come fight time.

Mike Fagan:  Jason Day +260 1u to win 2.6u
Marcus Davis -110 1u to win .9u
Matt Hughes -200 2u to win 1u
Nate Marquardt -205 5u to win 2.44u
Brandon Vera -170 1u to win .59u

With some line shopping (a very important skill, kids!), you can get better odds on 3 of those fights. 

Brent Brookhouse:  Matt Hughes -200 3u to win 1.5u
Jess Liaudin +200 3u to win 6u
Jorge Rivera +200 1.5u to win 3u
Luis Cane +125 1u to win 1.25u
Marcus Davis -110 1.5u to win 1.36u