The Case Against Forrest Griffin

by Luke Thomas on Jun 30, 2008 12:03 PM EDT in News Comment 20 comments

Forrest only has two likely ways to pull out a victory in this fight grind out a decision or catch Quinton in a submission during a scramble. Forrest just doesn't knock people out, especially block heads like Rampage. He has excellent ground skills, but is self admittedly lacking in the area of takedowns. He will have the gas tank to go full speed with Jackson for five rounds and after seeing both of their last fights it's a very likely outcome.

Unfortunately for Forrest Quinton is likely to be the aggressor for more of the fight and in the in I think he'll pull out another decision to defend his title.

Two things. First, I believe this fight will be significantly closer than folks imagine. Forrest is going to come into this fight very well prepared and I believe will give Jackson everything he can handle. Griffin trains incredibly hard and has the benefit of training with Wanderlei Silva, a man whose use of the clinch brutalized Jackson twice. In addition, I expect Griffin's size to be a factor in allowing him to apply the clinch both from a height, weight and reach factor.

The only issue I have is Griffin's chin. It's not a bad chin, but it isn't exactly sturdy either. Jackson is a notoriously hard puncher and even if Griffin is able to stay tight inside on Jackson in the clinch or with pressure against the fence, Jackson's power and underrated combinations can do enough damage to allow him to follow up on a hurt or stunned opponent. It's also interesting to note that despite being bigger and longer, I also don't think Griffin has the advantage kickboxing on the outside. The way for Griffin to win is with patience and timing and by deciding when the action of the bout should take place.

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Let’s be honest, he’s not going to submit Rampage. His chance is to grind out a decision, which is definitely possible. I think it will be a close fight too, but like you I think Quinton will catch him eventually.

by Michael Rome on Jun 30, 2008 12:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The Bottom Line is.....

The way this fight breaks down for me is if Forrest’s stand up has improved enough to pressure Rampage or not. How Wand beat Page in their first two fights was by pressuring him in the stand up. Wand did a nice job of throwing combos and whenever he threw a connecting body shot he would attach that plum clinch and knee the beejeesus out of Rampage’s head. Where Page did well was when he took the opportunity to take Silva to the ground and used his superior wrestling and submission defense to pound on Silva. Both fights got away from Page when they were stood up and back into Silva’s strength.
I do not see Forrest being able to hit hard enough to threaten Rampage on the feet. he throws beautiful combos, but his power is lacking. And to upset Griffin fans even more, Forrest’s takedown defense is less than optimal for this fight. If Rampage gets his way and can take him down at will, this will be a very long fight for Forrest. His ground game is solid, but Rampage has fought and beat some of the very best submission fighters in the sport, I find it highly unlikely that Griffin catchs Rampage in any type of Submission. Some Forrest fans like to hang their hat on how good Forrest is in the scrambles. Unfortunately for them, Rampage is maybe the best in the 205 division in the scrambles. Short of Rampage walking into something or coming in out fo shape, I just don’t see how he loses this fight to Griffin.

by strictlymma.com on Jun 30, 2008 12:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I just don’t see Forrest lasting 5 rounds with Rampage…he will get rocked at some point and it will be over.

by Tha Realness on Jun 30, 2008 12:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The UFC and Dana White want, and possibly need Forrest Griffin to win this fight. When Liddell was champ, his name and face were everywhere. When Rampage won, all of the promotion seemed to grind to a halt. Dana didnt expect Rampage to win. He was trying to help Chuck avenge his losses against the people who had beaten him in the past. The UFC didnt do enough to promote Rampage, and people are not really intrested in this fight.(See todays article on Sherdog.com) But if Forrest wins, I predict the UFC will get behind him in a big way. It would be good for the organization for Forrest to win, but I don’t think he’s got the tools. He won’t KO Rampage. He doesn’t have the power. And he isn’t strong enough to control the ground. I see it going Rampage’s way after 5 rounds.

by Cmad77 on Jun 30, 2008 1:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

That’s an interesting take on it. You’re right. They haven’t done much marketing with Rampage as champ. It’s ashamed. Forrest Griffin seems to be a favorite of the UFC, with good reason. Forrest is definitely capable of winning, but I think its highly unlikely. Rampage seems to be much improved from his Pride days. I feel like he’s going to eventually catch Forrest, and knock him out. Rampage is just so powerful. From my less than expert perspective, he seems to be at the top of his game at the moment.

by Cannon Jacques on Jun 30, 2008 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think that’s a short sighted view, and I think you’re wrong to think they need Forrest to win. It would be news to all sorts of people in UFC that that is what they want.

by Michael Rome on Jun 30, 2008 1:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Did anybody watch that show?

They did some science show on Discovery or National Geographic or something where they rigged up a heavy bag with pressure sensors and had Rampage hit it: The man delivered 1,800 pounds of force with an overhand right. That’s RIDICULOUS. And it’s way in excess of the kind of force that Tito, Bas, or any of the TMA guys on Fight Science did with their hands or feet. To say that his striking has improved with Juanito is a serious understatement.

So we give the stand-up to Rampage – unless Forrest has completely revamped his already crisp striking to be more of muay thai fighter or to pack a lot more power. He probably has a slight reach advantage to go with his 2 extra inches of height (but nobody on the net seems to keep reach stats), but didn’t Chuck have reach advantage as well? We see how far that got him.

And on the groud, Rampage is a beast. His takedowns are, and I know this is a dumb word and I complain every time Mike Goldberg uses is, but the shoe fits: legendary. On the Fight Science show, they measured the force that somebody hits the ground with when Tito gets a slam and it was around 2,000 pounds. I can’t imagine how hard a slam from Jackson would be. But once he gets Forrest down, Forrest has to compete with a guy who controlled an Olympic wrestler on the ground. DAMN.

I, like just about everyone else, like Forrest. And I’d like to see him win a big fight like this. But I just can’t see that he has the tools to win against Rampage.

Don't believe a word I say, I don't train BJJ. -- TangleBones

by jemaleddin on Jun 30, 2008 2:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Be careful...

confusing power advantage with striking advantage.

That being said I’d still give the stand-up advantage to Rampage right now. But it’s a lot closer than most people are making it sound.

Contributing Editor - BloodyElbow.com - SBNation's mixed martial arts headquarters.

"The reason a lot of people do not recognize opportunity is because it usually goes around wearing overalls and looking like hard work." -- Thomas Edison

by Brent Brookhouse on Jun 30, 2008 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I know, I know...

It sounds like I’m conflating, but I just meant both. Because he has both.

I don’t know the magical ingredient that Juantio brings to Rampage is, but it turned him from an impressive also-ran in PRIDE into one of the most fearsome fighters in the UFC. I’ll have what he’s having.

Don't believe a word I say, I don't train BJJ. -- TangleBones

by jemaleddin on Jun 30, 2008 8:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Here’s the video jemaleddin was referenced.

by Estrada on Jun 30, 2008 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Please excuse the unnecessary “was” in the previous post (I should have hit preview first).

by Estrada on Jun 30, 2008 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think I agree with everything there. Stylistically, Quinton is better everywhere. Forrest’s only shot is to use his reach and footwork to move in and out and win each round on points. Even then, I think Quinton will get him down if that happens.

I don’t think we’ll see an early finish here. Forrest will probably try to take this into the later rounds where he can exchange with less fear of being finished with one punch. The only thing that makes me a little uneasy about picking Jackson is the quality of Forrest’s camp. Training wrestling with Randy and standup with Wanderlei Silva is pretty much as good as it gets, and there’s no doubt Forrest has worked his ass off for this one.

by Michael Rome on Jun 30, 2008 2:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I think we should point out that Forrest trains standup primarily with Mark Beecher (his MT coach) and Rampage trains his standup with Juanito and Chris Reilly (boxing and MT coaches). Those are the guys that put in the technical work with these two. And although Rampage does have excellent power in his punches, I think the technical aspect of his punching is underrated. Sure, he gets wild occasionally while trading, because he goes for the finish, but his footwork and counterpunching are extremely sharp. And defensively, he is very sound with how he covers up to block both kicks and punches.

As for sparring partners, Rampage has Cheick Kongo to spar with, so he’ll be prepared for a taller guy with Forrest’s style.

by Hardcharger on Jun 30, 2008 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Forrest will take out Quinton

Griffin wins this fight for one reason and one reason only – longevity. Jackson hasn’t done many – if any – 5 round events to a decision; Griffin has. And I like the fact that Griffin’s ground-and-pound will trump Jackson’s striking. Bottom line – Griffin’s overall skill set will be the difference at UFC 86. Grigffin wins in Round 3.

by Stephen Rhodes on Jun 30, 2008 3:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

ahem.....

Excuse me sir, but could you please list all of the 25 minute fights that forrest has fought? As far as I knew, this was Forrest’s first title fight. Please educate me.

By the way, this is Rampage’s 5 title fight including Pride.

by strictlymma.com on Jun 30, 2008 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If this isn’t a troll, you’ve got pretty much all the facts incorrect in this “prediction”.

by Hardcharger on Jun 30, 2008 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

What? Rampage will…. uhm.. Never mind..

by Johann on Jun 30, 2008 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Many...if any?

You mean like the Henderson fight?

Contributing Editor - BloodyElbow.com - SBNation's mixed martial arts headquarters.

"The reason a lot of people do not recognize opportunity is because it usually goes around wearing overalls and looking like hard work." -- Thomas Edison

by Brent Brookhouse on Jul 1, 2008 12:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think it’s important to keep some numbers in mind. First, MMA fights generally are finished 65% of the time. That jumps up to 75% in five round title fights.

Unfortunately for Forrest, 7 of his 10 of his finishes (out of 15 fights) are by submission. Rampage hasn’t been submitted since his first fight in Pride with Kazushi Sakuraba. While it’s known that Forrest lacks KO power, but it should also be noted that one of his KO wins is by cut.

Meanwhile, Rampage has 20 finishes in 28 fights, with 13 by KO. While Forrest has a solid chin, it has been known to falter. As such, if this fight doesn’t go to a decision, I think it’s fair to say that the most likely outcome is Rampage by KO.

Forrest is certainly capable, tough, and intelligent enough to survive five rounds in a similar fashion to Dan Henderson.

However, I also feel that Forrest has gained more MMA cred than is justified for his win over Shogun. Look at the next 4 fights after the win over Rua. Decision win over Hector Ramirez, KO loss to Jardine, decision win over Bonnar, decision loss to Tito Ortiz. It’s certainly possible that Forrest is better than the sum of his past 5 fights. A win on Saturday would further cement his place as a top fighter. I think it’s fair, though, to be skeptical of his abilities until he proves himself.

by Mike Fagan on Jun 30, 2008 6:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Where “after” = “before” in your last paragaph: exactly. Forrest has certainly done enough to be admired and respected, but not enough to a) deserve this title shot, or b) give us any reason to think he stands a chance. He’s a talented journeyman fighter with great developing skills, but unless he gets very lucky, this is Rampage’s fight to lose.

Don't believe a word I say, I don't train BJJ. -- TangleBones

by jemaleddin on Jun 30, 2008 8:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs