An intriguing line of speculation from the fan posts. Kid Nate

Following upon my post  about how not making weight may have been a good move for Gina Carano, I have some questions about the kind of reasoning Kaitlin Young had to do. 

There's been a lot of talk about how "the fix was in" for some of the fights at EliteXC Primetime. But what if it made more sense for a fighter to lose than to win? I don't have any evidence, there's no reason to suspect that anyone threw a fight, and until the payouts are released this is just idle speculation, but it's an interesting thought exercise.

Stated simply: what if the 12.5% that Young got from losing to Carano was more than her win bonus?

The information about the deal that was worked out has been very vague, but it sounds like Young was to receive her base pay, her win bonus if applicable, and 12.5% of whatever Carano made. What we don't know is if that percentage was of her fight pay, her win pay, or her combined pay, and this makes a huge difference. The way it was reported certainly sounded like the primary factor was Carano's combined pay. We can safely assume that Carano is making more than Young, but how much is up in the air. But there's a good chance that it was significant. Let's try some math: 

If Young was paid $10K to fight and $10K to lose, and Carano was paid $100K to fight and $100K to win, winning the fight would get Young $32.5K: $10K + $10K + $12.5. Losing would get her $35K: $10K + $25K. Now I obviously made those numbers up, but for a first time fighter and a headliner, that doesn't sound too unreasonable. In fact, it might be a bit conservative.

But let's play with the numbers: If Young were paid $4K/$4K - a reasonable amount - and Gina still made $100K/$100K, winning would get Kaitlin $20.5K, while losing would get her $33K. If Gina made $50K/$50K, the difference between winning and losing is $14.25K/$18.5K. 

Obviously, it's all more complicated than this. Winning has other consequences than just a bonus: more and better sponsors, higher pay for the next fight, and even a long-term contract are all worth something. But that all depends on how risk averse Young is. Would it be better to make an additional few thousand and risk tanking her career? Who can say?

This is of course not an attempt to say that Young threw the fight: she was clearly fighting very hard, and she doesn't seem like the kind of person who would be motivated to risk her career for a few extra dollars. But there are fighters who have more bills and less scruples than her, and this kind of arrangement (large difference in fighter pay, penalties assessed as a percentage) is clearly a moral quagmire waiting to happen.

Organizations need to come up with a different way of arranging for these penalties, before this kind of problem becomes an issue. But again: this is all speculation. What do you think?