The Case Against Counter Programming

by Mike Fagan on Jun 20, 2008 12:09 AM EDT Comment 28 comments

Fronted by Kid Nate

What do you get when you mix one part Anderson Silva, one part free TV, and one part revenge?

A huge mistake on July 19th.

Originally rumored to be headlined by Wanderlei Silva or Brandon Vera or Wanderlei Silva AND Brandon Vera, Zuffa has thrown together a card featuring the 205 lb. debut of pound-for-pound king Anderson Silva. The card will also showcase Brandon Vera, a lightweight bout between Hermes Franca and Frank Edgar, and a heavyweight fight with prospects Jake O'Brien and Cain Velasquez.

The questions is, "Why?"

I've heard people touting this card as the "Affliction Killer" and any chance Affliction had at success has been wiped out faster than Rich Franklin in the Thai plum.

Except that the Affliction card wasn't going to succeed in the first place.

Depending on who you get your information from, the BodogFight PPV featuring Fedor Emelianenko and Matt Lindland did anywhere from 10,000 to 15,000 buys. I think it's pretty reasonable to assume that Affliction 1) will market the show better than Bodog and 2) has a card that is a lot more appealing from top-to-bottom. With that said, Afflction probably has a ceiling around 50k buys, and a more likely (but still generous) estimate between 30k to 40k.

In response, the UFC throws together a card more irrationally than a divorced wife demanding the kids, house, and car.

First, what's the end game? Sure, there will be casual fans that tune into Spike instead of splurging $40 to see some Russian cyborg. How many of those fans planned on buying the Affliction PPV in the first place? The same can be said for segments of hardcore fans. There will be a handful who watch the Spike show on free TV and "acquire" the Afflcition show via underhanded means later. Again, how many of those fans were going to shell out the money in the first place? Really, how many fans are going to actually be pulled away from the Megadeth and overpriced T-shirt bonanza?

The other point of contention involves the matchmaking. To be fair, the undercard looks pretty solid so far. I may even go as far as saying all four undercards fights are pretty perfect matchups. Unfortunately, the main event sells the card and this main event fails in its short-sightedness and potential for disaster.

By all measures, Anderson Silva should have no problem handling James Irvin. If we accept the opening line at Bodog (and do a little rounding), Anderson will take this fight 9 times out of 10.

The risk doesn't justify the reward though. As stated earlier, this card won't affect Affliction's bottom line much. You aren't going to be stealing many PPV buys from a show that didn't have much chance from the get-go.

From a fight standpoint, Anderson gains nothing from a win and loses so much from a defeat. Sure, he's still your middleweight champion, but how much luster disappears in the event of a loss? Anderson Silva can be a top draw for the UFC soon. However, his epic encounter with Pride Champion Dan Henderson did just north of 300k buys. His star is rising, but it isn't all the way there yet.

You're left with a show that's being put on in short notice, will probably lose money, will not really accomplish your objective of gouging your competition (because they were screwed from the onset), and you have the potential for a huge trainwreck if you're superstar middleweight loses to a middling 205 journeyman.

I'll finish with this quote from MMA Payout's Robert Joyner:

The decision to counter program Affliction seems to be made more on the basis of personal animus than the Affliction show's actual business impact on the UFC. Affliction is very much between the Zuffa crosshairs because of their ties with Randy Couture and Zuffa's belief that Affliction played a role in Couture's departure. Dana has decided that Affliction are the enemy and to quote Dana from the Rolling Stone article from last month:

"If you try to hurt me, that's a whole other ballgame, and you couldn't have picked a worse f*cking enemy ever. Ever. I am going to f*cking hurt you."

When you are running a company that generates in the hundreds of millions of dollars in revenues and Forbes has valued at close to a billion dollars, sound strategic planning has to win out over marshaling your corporate resources to settle grudges. For this reason I think running this show will ultimately hurt the UFC's cause.

The FanPosts are solely the subjective opinions of Bloody Elbow readers and do not necessarily reflect the views of Bloody Elbow editors or staff.

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Well

I can say this, I was contemplating whether or not to order the Affliction show just to see some fights that night, because while I’m a MMA fan first and UFC fan 2nd, I still don’t care about Fedor and refuse to buy into him. Now that UFC is having a show, much less a free one, I’ll be watching that and finding the results via internet!

So, maybe not many minds were changed, but I am one of them!

all you gotta do is...

by imapimp08 on Jun 19, 2008 8:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Care to explain the Fedor-hate?

by Mike Fagan on Jun 19, 2008 8:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

All hype, no recent fight! And let’s not include Hong man choi(however you spell that, i went off the top of my head)

He is equivalent to the KIMBO hype machine right now! Of course he has actually beaten good people along the way, but he is riding on his past wins the way TITO ORTIZ is. I just wanna see him get beat, like everyone wants to see KIMBO lose. just my own opinion

all you gotta do is...

by imapimp08 on Jun 19, 2008 8:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

So even though he’s beaten the current UFC champ twice and more importantly is set to face a top 5 heavyweight, you have no interest?

by Mike Fagan on Jun 19, 2008 9:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Look at who Tito beat in the past

and look at who he has beat recently, that’s all the comparison i was making! Tito ducked Chuck for whatever reason and it seems like Fedor has ducked out of fighting the best as of late. I wasn’t saying he is Kimbo in regards to skill, but in regards to all the “over hype” about him. I wasn’t all that excited about the UFC champ getting that shot anyway. The UFC heavyweight division is all smoke and mirrors right now.

all you gotta do is...

by imapimp08 on Jun 20, 2008 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

OK, but that doesn’t address what I was trying to say. You say he’s been ducking competition, but now he’s fighting a top HW. So shouldn’t you be interested to see if the hype is real or not?

by Mike Fagan on Jun 20, 2008 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes

I am interested to see if the hype is real or not! I think if he was for real in the first place he would already be signed and fighting in the UFC, but thats beside the point and way to many variables to argue about why he isn’t, Going on how he performed 3 years ago doesn’t match up with the Hype that he is the #1 heavyweight in the world “RIGHT NOW” , then matching him up against Sylvia who has had 3 poor performances in a row AND calling it a TITLE matchup for who is the #1 heavyweight is IMO a spit in the face to all the heavyweights who are actively training and fighting to get the privilige to be called #1. IF he beats Sylvia then I still wouldn’t consider him #1 heavyweight, but i’d be glad to retract my previous statement that he is “overhyped” and then i’d consider putting money in his overpaid pockets!

all you gotta do is...

by imapimp08 on Jun 20, 2008 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Comparing Fedor with Kimbo is absurd.

by idefinecagefighter on Jun 19, 2008 10:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It isn't like Kimbo.

It’s really only diehard MMA fans who hype Fedor. It’s kind of the opposite scenario, really. I’m not in love with Fedor like many seem to be, but I’ll be interested to see what your opinion is if he makes short, decisive work of Big Tim (which I believe he will).

by Popetastic on Jun 20, 2008 12:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

your right

If he comes out looking like he is still taking the fight game serious and not just going out relying on his natural abilities i’ll gladly welcome him back as a contender, but until then i’m the “ANTI-HYPE”

all you gotta do is...

by imapimp08 on Jun 20, 2008 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Fair enough.

by Popetastic on Jun 20, 2008 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Silva vs. Sandman

I might actually like this fight better than Iceman vs. Rashad.

by thetakeover on Jun 19, 2008 8:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

This post makes some compelling points, but I still think this is a good move for the UFC. Maybe they don’t drive a stake in Affliction’s heart right now. I just think it makes sense to try and stop any momentum this show could give an upstart promotion with pretty deep pockets. The UFC’s got the fighters. Use them, and remind people who’s the leader in MMA. EliteXC has already cemented themselves as a competitor with their exposure on CBS. The UFC should be proactive at this point.

As far as Anderson Silva goes, I like that the UFC is willing to put their stars out there, and let the chips fall where they may. Although this isn’t a big risk, Irvin isn’t exactly Rampage.

by Cannon Jacques on Jun 19, 2008 8:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Another point that I touched on briefly in the article is that this card being put on with 5 weeks notice is a huge down point for me. It isn’t as if they haven’t known about the card for awhile, you know?

Irvin isn’t Rampage, and that’s part of the point. If Rampage beat Silva, you wouldn’t exactly hold it against the guy.

by Mike Fagan on Jun 19, 2008 9:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You’re right. It would be a blow to Silva and the UFC if Irvin were to pull off a win. That adds a little interest for me although I’m not overly excited about the match.

I don’t know why they just now decided to put on a competing event. Maybe it had to do with Trump coming on board and adding some mainstream star power to Affliction. I don’t think they’ve got a very good plan. I’ll have to hand it to them for putting together a star-studded card, though.

Affliction clothing is banned, because it should be banned. Looking at those shirts is like ingesting second hand smoke. You could receive brain damage.

by Cannon Jacques on Jun 19, 2008 9:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree with you for the most part, but the UFC made the right move in this case. While I don’t think the UFC card will have a major impact on pay-per-view buy rates, it will have an impact in terms of media attention. Affliction will no longer be the sole focus of the weekend, and I would imagine most fans will be dividing their attention between the UFC and Affliction (as I will be). Preventing Affliction from being the only event talked about that weekend is a worthwhile outcome in and of itself.

I’m sure this move is very much about keeping fans talking about the UFC and not getting too excited about other promotions.

by Andy R on Jun 19, 2008 9:13 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs

That’s a fine point that I haven’t seen discussed and honestly hadn’t considered myself.

by FRANKIE on Jun 20, 2008 12:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That’s a good point. It’s not so much about the buy rates as it is the resulting hype and focus being taken away from the UFC. With the UFC scheduling an event the same weekend, it takes a lot of the wind out of the sails of Affliction.

Intentional Blog on Balls

by Richard Wade on Jun 20, 2008 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Mike, I think you make some good points. But heres a few points for counter programming.

- Any dollars the UFC is able to take away from Affliction now will pay dividends further down the line as the UFC wont have to worry about competion from them.

- If by some chance the is an Affliction 2, the UFC will no doubt pull the same trick again, only this time with a better card, better promotion, probably for free and possibly on network.

- Affliction is blowing their load right now, financially, and also talent wise. I mean who else is on their roster? I suppose they could shuffle the deck and mix up the HW matchups. The UFC has a deep bench.

- The Donald should recognize the poor business model pretty quickly and GTFO of dodge.

- Fedor nor Sylvia are big draws, this should be a huge disaster.

I am one of the guys who was going to order the PPV, and will now be watching spike that nite. I’m quite sure i am not alone.

by nitro on Jun 19, 2008 10:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Maybe the title is kind of misleading, but I’m not against counter-programming as a business philosophy for the UFC. I just don’t think it’s a good idea given how everything has played out so far. As you said, Affliction is “blowing their load” and probably aren’t going to be very successful doing so. So why rush a fight card to TV now? If you wanted to run a show on the same night, why weren’t you planning and announcing it 2 months ago?

by Mike Fagan on Jun 19, 2008 10:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It could very well be the difference between Affliction breaking even/slight loss, or being absolutely upside down. Dana is banking on the ladder.

by nitro on Jun 19, 2008 10:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

This is the perfect strategy!

Mike,

First Off:

What better way to amp the drawing power of the best pound for pound fighter in the world than having him Main Event on free TV?

Secondly Big John Mcarthy is crying about how this counter programming is hurting the sport… why wasnt he crying when affliction was trying to steal UFC fighters? Isnt that bad for the sport as well? because we wont be seeing randy fight nog, and if they werent in the game fedor would probably sign with the UFC yada yada yada…

This is all Stupid talk – just surprising that its coming from big John.

The Bottom Line is this counter programming will solidify any doubts to whether another org can compete with the UFC… and the answer is NO… Not by using their model anyway.

They have to find something other than Pay Per View and that is going to take alot…

Differentiate your product and/or Garner a whole slew of new Fans or Monetize in a different way.

The only Org who has differentiated successfully is the WEC with the lighter weights and guess who owns them… the only other apparent one is a female league which the AFL is probably taking (although this should work it will not produce significant revenues – think wba vs nba).

instead of these idiots spending 30 mil in the states in a futile attempt to compete with the UFC they should go into some of the emerging markets overseas… oh I forgot – Lorenzo is now attacking that assignment :)

UFC is doing a brilliant job and as Bas Rutten says – “you can say whatever you want about Dana but when he does something he does it right… He built this sport here”.

Regarding Elite XC they will be out of business within 12 months… if you read the deal they have with CBS it comes down to a time buy – insiders are probably dumping their stock with the transaction.

Half the people watching cbs fights think its the UFC… basically Elite XC is building stars for the UFC :)

The net result of the CBS show is more fans for the UFC… the ratings on UFC programing has gone up since then.

Think about it… anyone who was hooked or intrigued by the CBS show channel surfs and what MMA programing is mostly run? UFC and WEC biatches… these people arent waiting 3 months for the next cbs show they’re getting there apettites satisfied.

So when Dana says he’s happy with all these schmo’s spending millions of dollars… he means it!

Peace

by mmalogic on Jun 20, 2008 3:35 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

You're not seeing the big picture with Anderson...

I agree with the assessment that UFN 14 is a hasty, and probably unecessary move on the UFC’s part. However, I disagree that there is not a benefit to having Silva headline. Irvin can certainly KO him and it would be a diaster, but let’s face it, this match will be a perfect showcase for Anderson’s skills. Irvin will stand directly in front of fim and get picked apart from a full array of jaw-dropping kicks and punches. It’s a mismatch. Maybe the hardcore fan does not want to see that, but he casual fan loves a Mike Tyson-like fighter- someone who has you on the edge of your seat the second he enters the arena. If there is anyone in the UFC with that kind of potential, it’s Anderson Silva. Putting him on Spike exposes him to the public. If he goes out there and puts on a show, you can gurantee that people who saw him for the first time will be watching the next time- and that’s how you build a star. Right now, the UFC being the UFC drives the success of the company, but stars have to be made- and this is a chance for Silva to make the leap.

by peauxboy on Jun 20, 2008 9:50 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Putting him on Spike exposes him to the public. If he goes out there and puts on a show, you can gurantee that people who saw him for the first time will be watching the next time- and that’s how you build a star.

And that might be one side effect of putting Silva out there. He still hasn’t achieved superstardom like Liddell, Ortiz, etc, yet he really has been dominant and exciting to watch. Keeping him busy AND putting him on free TV is a good way to build his star.
Yeah it could backfire on the UFC and Silva but I don’t expect it will be as devastating if it was a ‘side-show’ match with someone in his own weight class (ie: TUF fighter winning a chance to fight him ala GSP)

I don’t like that people keep thinking that it’s the UFC that is forcing him to fight, he likely wants to be a lot more active being in his prime and the 185 division at t his point offers him very little in ways of competition. Why would they instantly pit him up against Rampage (who is obviously booked already) in the case that he beats him? Besides, who besides Irvin are they going to put Silva up against that isn’t booked or isn’t a legitimate contender for the title at this point?

It seems like a win-win to me. Silva wins it announces his intentions to run for the 205 title, likely fast-tracked. Silva loses his is proven to be beatable and gives a storyline for Irvin to drop down to 185 (he might have to shave off a limb to make it to that weight) and challenge for the actual title.

by pr0cs on Jun 20, 2008 9:59 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

People seem to forget how much the UFC was worth when Dana and his boys bought it. Now what is it valued at? Yeah he should start taking notes from you blog writers, he would if he was smart. After all, look what you guys have.

by Tommy7 on Jun 20, 2008 10:04 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Why read blogs if you don’t expect to see opinions?

by Mike Fagan on Jun 20, 2008 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I believe Tommy7 was merely expressing his own opinion thus continuing the cycle of opinions being found on blogs.

Intentional Blog on Balls

by Richard Wade on Jun 20, 2008 6:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I definitely think this impromptu maneuver by the UFC is unnecessary and a bit harsh, cause Affliction was never going to be successful due to the amount they were spending on the show. The death nail was having Megadeth play the show. I mean, really? Megadeth? Has anyone ever cared about Megadeth? Ever? I guess with all the money they were spending on fighter purses, they really didn’t have much left over…

by pud333 on Jun 20, 2008 11:51 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs