Inevitability Works Until It Doesn't
by Michael Rome on May 31, 2008 12:45 AM EDT
in MMA News
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PrintUFC's entire PR strategy regarding Elite XC on CBS, Affliction, and all other companies is to dismiss them as irrelevent. Dana seems to believe that by calling UFC the equivalent of Nascar, it makes it true:
"It's like us sitting on my couch on a Saturday afternoon watching NASCAR, okay? We're watching NASCAR and I'm like, "Holy ****, look at all the people that are at that race. They must be making a lot of money. They've got a network deal with Fox, too. You know what we should do? We should get a couple of their drivers and go out and start our own race league, and we'll compete head to head with NASCAR."
The most obvious problem with this kind of analogy is that NASCAR didn't first get popular 2 years ago. Dana's attempt to act like he is the top dog, has always been the top dog, and will inevitably be the top dog is little more than wishful thinking. If Elite XC does a 4 or 5 rating this weekend, Elite XC will almost immediately be a serious number 2.
I'm loathe to bring politics into things, but UFC's position right now reminds me of where Hillary Clinton was in the Democratic Primary a little over a year ago. The entire strategy was to act like victory was simply inevitable, and to ignore the legitimacy of the opposition. It worked for a long time, but as soon as the dam broke in Iowa, the myth of inevitability was destroyed. If Elite XC hits it big this Saturday, UFC's myth of invincibility is going to be shattered. At that point, it will be up to them to keep ahead on the merits, and once they are forced to do that, we're all going to benefit.
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I just think there are a lot of moving parts for this show and EliteXC. If Kimbo loses the fight, I think that could cause major problems for the organization. Once the mystique of Kimbo runs off, I think the viewers will lose interest. And I also think that without Kimbo, Elite does not have the drawing power to get a lot of viewers interested in their cards. I mean for hardcore MMA fans, they can make some interesting fights, but for the casual person sitting around on a Saturday night, do they have the right stars to put in an interesting main event? I don’t think Carano can possibly headline a high rated show and her drawing power may take a hit because this Kaitlyn chick looks like she means business.
My question is, how can they possibly do good business without any PPV cards?
by RollinOnShabbos on May 31, 2008 1:15 AM EDT reply actions
You don't get analogies.
Is the NASCAR analogy perfect? No, but its pretty good. The UFC is not ignoring anything though. They have counter programing. That in it self tells a lot. Your politics analogy is a lot more off then the NASCAR one. It pretty much a fact that UFC has the top product. They have the talent and at the moment they have the money. If EliteXC can get the ratings then they will get the money and maybe draw a few more fighters over, but right now the top of there ranks are guys looking to make the jump to UFC or former UFC castoffs. Who knows what they did to get the CBS deal. They were/are having cash problem, at least I think they were from reading there SEC filings. Its possible that if CBS drops them after 1 million viewers that they fold Monday morning. I doubt that would happen, but stranger things have happend. Its really a wait and see at this point. Its way to early to start calling the death of the org with ironclad contracts on some of the greatest fighters in the world. To say they are ignoring anyone is foolish.
You know what I think it’s like? I think it’s like when the UFC though it got to be the “major leagues” just because it got there first, and all the others would be forced to do the hard work of holding all the contracts for lesser fighters that were moving up for title fights. While it feasted only on the choicest plums, with Dana calling all the match making shots as he wished.
That was before the UFC kept driving away fighter after fighter, can’t contract for its Heavyweight Camp to fight the obvious contender (I’ll cut some slack on that), and failed to get the big network TV deal first, of course. Seems a bit early to be so cocky. Oh wait, it’s Dana White. Of course he is. Yeesh, boxing promoters. OTOH, the UFC might pull it off too.
by swarmofkillermonkeys on May 31, 2008 3:42 AM EDT reply actions
No way Elitx XC pulls a 4 or 5 rating on a Saturday night. Mark my words. Won’t happen!!
by Jerret Anderson on May 31, 2008 4:36 AM EDT reply actions
lose-lose for CBS
What all the MMA writers/bloggers fail to understand is that this is a lose-lose situation for CBS…
If the ratings are a success all fox or abc has to do is ink a deal with the UFC and instantly they have the better product. One network with major league baseball another with minor league… who wins?
CBS is taking all the risk and they are positioning another network to reap all to most of the rewards if its a success!
If its not a success they look foolish… even though financially they aren’t risking anything – they are risking their prestige with very little upside as described above.
LOSE-LOSE… I can’t imagine someone at CBS not getting fired because of this. The only way I see them saving their asses is if it turns out to be a success dropping elitexc and picking up the UFC ASAP before another network does – If I were CBS I would already be restarting the negotiations with Dana.
For Elite XC, CBS will deliver nothing in terms of pay per view buys… how do you market a payperview with a show every four months??? no matter how high the rating is – almost impossible… UFC basically has their own channel in spike with weekly content.
And while all the new fans that CBS brings in – hungry for more content channel surfing what will they find mostly? (UFC unleashed, The Ultimate Fighter, UFC fight night replays, WEC)... All while Elite XC is struggling to fund their next show.
And finally every one I have spoken to thinks Kimbo is in the UFC (yeah they are so sure because they saw him on ESPN 360 training to fight UFC – duh). and the ones who know CBS is airing fights on saturday night think its the UFC they are showing! .
(PS. you may publish this on the blog as a separate post as it is the most insightful analysis of this whole CBS deal so far written)
At this point, Dana has every right to be as cocky as he is. No other organization can touch the UFC. Is it too cocky? Probably. But is he overlooking the competition? I don’t think so. He’s not that stupid. He may dismiss other organizations in public, but I think he has a close eye on what EliteXC is doing. I could be totally wrong on this and he could fall a victim to his own hubris, but whatever.
poster mmalogic has a point: cbs could potentially lose from this if the EliteXC show is a success, since all another network has to do is to sign with the UFC and they instantly have a superior product. That being said, I think in a way, EliteXC’s success at CBS (if it is one) could actually help Dana and the UFC by giving them leverage. Dana’s insistance on control over the UFC product/brand is probably one of the biggest reasons why the UFC still had no major network deal. This issue of control is rightly earned by him because he and his crew have done so well in promoting the UFC and elevating MMA to the mainstream. If the EliteXC show is a success, Dana will have a better bargaining position. It’s like, if you want to roll with major leagues, you’re gonna have to play ball on their terms.
In all honesty, I think a deal will be struck before the year is out, regardless.
You are right there. He could definitely pull it of; he’s shown he is a capable business man. I wonder why he didn’t tier the UFC earlier by spinning off a subsidiary for the minor leagues. I guess he can accomplish the same by waiting for the IFL and EliteXC to run low on cash and snapping them up. Just seems an awkward way to do it, and throwing aside that may top players is not winning him any more friends (though a fighter’s union is inevitable, IMHO).
I think there is enough of a fitness market now (as opposed to back in boxing’s heyday) in the general buying public that advertisers and sponsors are a viable alternative to PPV only. I hope so anyway, guess we’ll see (though EliteXC may not be the best example/trial).
by swarmofkillermonkeys on May 31, 2008 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Huh?
This sounds like some rant on Sherdog forums. I used to read Sherdog forums but it was filled with junk like this. I visit this site along with two other sites once or more a day. If this type of crap makes it way onto this or any other site I will just stop going to it. Just take a deep breath and think before you decide to put stuff like this on the front page.
Have to say something..
I read Bloody Elbow regularly for the news, but the opinions are shockingly subjective in nature. The editors of this blog clearly have a vendetta against the UFC, whether it’s for tangible reasons (perhaps revolving around their inability to procure press passes) or a rage against the machine mentality. I don’t understand the sentiment one little bit. I love MMA. From UFC and Pride all the way down to local circuit slug fests. But it is purely absurd to suggest that good ratings on CBS will change XC’s business model. It will not suddenly make them wildly profitable and make signing top tier fighters a foregone conclusion. The best fighters are in the UFC, top to bottom. There is a feeding frenzy for some of the guys they have outright released to meet their 50 fighter cut. I’m going to watch XC, don’t get me wrong. And maybe Kimbo is the most popular fighter in the world. So what? Do you want Kimbo to fight the best fighters in the world and to maybe become one, or do you want to buy his t-shirt? If you’re experts, why do you often act like fanboys?
If by “winning” you’re implying “television ratings”, then who cares if it’s MMA? American Idol wins then, right?
You’re MMA journalists. The winner is the promotion with the best fights. Not the best ratings, not the best president and not even the most profitability (as long as it’s sustainable and we’re still watching fights, what does profitability matter to an observer?). It’s the best fights that matter and, after 84 last Saturday, tonight simply will not and can not (if in volume of fights alone) stand up to that performance.
One CBS show, guys? It’s a wash..
You're welcome to believe what you like
But if you really believe anyone on this staff has a “vendetta” against the UFC, you’re dreaming. Yes, we’re critical of them and overly so sometimes. But we’re not out to get them in the slightest. The amount of positive coverage we give them far exceeds the negative in terms of news like updates, praise for quality of product, air time on radio shows, show predictions, and the like.
You're clearly welcome to believe what you like, too
I’m sorry, Luke.. But simply because you report on the UFC doesn’t mean you’re doing them any favors. If you didn’t report on the UFC, you wouldn’t be in business. I’ve read this blog for some time now and there are seldom any positive opinionations in regard to the UFC. Sure, you make picks, but that’s arbitrary. Look, I enjoy reading this site, but I am continually put off by the attacks on Dana White and the UFC. The lone exception being your coverage about ancillary rights, which I have not read anything about from alternative sources. And I agree that the contracts and those rights, in particular, should be revisited. But Dana White is made out to look like Scrooge McDuck meets Egyptian slave driver, and I find the whole portrayal of his character (which is very often on a personally introspective level) and business practices resentful and (quite often) bizarre. By no means do I intend to change the way you write and/or operate as a journalist. But it certainly does not mean that I should nod along when you continually criticise the UFC for being convinced of their own greatness, exhibiting poor business practices or treating their fighters like cattle. For instance, I think Tito Ortiz is a lumbering, unintelligent idiot. At least Arlovski left with dignity. Ortiz’s mouth is like a big, loud, flatulent sore. I’m curious that you don’t provide counter points to his many (and often absurd) arguments. Only once have you made clear that the numbers (ie; compensation for his fights) he defines are post-tax and do not include unlisted locker room bonuses. Wait.. Is Dana the tax man?
Anyway, I digress. But as far as a multi-journalist blog goes, where’s the dissenting view? Where is the contrary opinion? Where is the point/counter-point? That alone would wash away the bad taste..
Don’t feel obligated to regard me with a reply. It’s clear that you are comfortable with your format, so perhaps my opinion is needless. I felt that it needed saying, regardless.
Whoops, I'm Not Helping.
The blog post doesn’t seem really all that negative to me. My comments about Mr. White probably have been overly negative above in here and elsewhere however. But don’t take my poor communications skills out on the original author, if that is the case. Hopefully I didn’t start trouble. I just view the sport at a crucial turning point; clearly whatever his faults Dana has not “ruined” the sport at all—thus far. Mostly the best still fight the best. But where is it headed? What happens this next year will make it or ruin it for years to come I feel. UFC #84 was fantastic, I think we can all agree that we just want it to get better from there (or at least stay that level) but disagree on the path?
As for the dissenting view, I think you did a pretty good job. Isn’t that what the comments are for? (BTW, Ortiz was encouraged to be loud and obnoxious initially. I hate that style too, but at least with him it was his genuine personality in addition to being asked to play the role. That “hype” culture is part of my beef with Dana following too closely existing models that rely on hype versus simply letting the best fighters fight each other, even if they are friendly and boring. Let them be athletes, not actors - the competitive natures will tell their own stories in time, I think. Dana inserting himself in the story, and in front of the camera constantly will not accomplish that however - unless he is a fighter, I don’t want to see him on camera. Even if it is to state the obvious that “Tito Ortiz is the dumbest human being on the planet”. That’s still no way to do business with your fighters, sorry.)
by swarmofkillermonkeys on May 31, 2008 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions
It's not this particular post..
..it’s a thematic recurrence.
Your comments didn’t attribute to my opinion. Not to be rude, but I applied my comment without reading the others that came before it.
And I wasn’t arguing about Dana calling Tito an idiot. Dana is outspoken, yeah. Personally, I find it amusing. Which is not to say you should, as well. Clearly the relationship between those two individuals is beyond repair. But the conflict is a two way road and Dana is clearly a very proud man. I can empathize; pride is my sin. He’s in the fight game, I’ll forgive him his contentious demeanor. I find it refreshing (though it may sometimes be grating, all the same).
As for my application of a dissenting view, I am not a front page journalist on this blog. This is actually the first time I have even ventured as far as to click on the comments. I hardly consider this to be a equal exchange..
Good...
No skin off my back if you skipped comments (don’t we all at times), I just am new here and realized that I’ve been mostly bitching and whining about Dana. I started to annoy even myself; glad I didn’t fuel the fire then.
And I wasn’t arguing about Dana calling Tito an idiot. Dana is outspoken, yeah. Personally, I find it amusing.
You know, initially I did too. It’s just not that big of a deal and… well, we’ve all heard Tito speak. Or try to… pretty amusing in itself. But the pattern, screwing with Couture’s contract—twice, until Randy left. Encouraging Tito’s hype, then crapping the SOB out of the system, smearing him in the press the whole time. “Banning” a brand, even thought that was already given to the lawyers to settle, training to fight Tito himself like this was WWE… seems like there’s more I’m forgetting. Fighters have huge egos too, of course, but the guy running the show needs to be more of a trustworthy leader. You can’t ignore what constantly running out some of the best fighters in the sport sends as a message to other fighters and fans. Unnecessary, IMO. I love the straight-talk and f-bombs, but sometimes silence is the wiser choice.
I’d probably be even worse with enjoying the fame than Dana personally; no angel here. But you know how it works. If you’re at the top, your naturally going to attract the most criticism, helpful and otherwise. UFC is definitely on top so far; hopefully most of the criticism only uncovers some answers and makes them better.
by swarmofkillermonkeys on May 31, 2008 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions
you're smart and opinionated
write some diaries. we’d love to have someone offering an intelligent defense of Dana’s antics and business practices around here.
What are diaries?
Is that a feature I’m not aware of? I saw that you’re looking for writers and was somewhat interested in applying.
The opinions are subjective
I don’t know why people don’t seem to recognize this, but we’ve made it clear since the beginning: this is a blog, not a news site. We do report news, but we have never ever pretended to be anything but subjective. If you want content that’s third rate news with absolutely zero personality, there are plenty of sites to go to. Bloody Elbow is precisely about opinion because we believe in the sharing of ideas, personality and perspective. Objectivity is largely a myth and when blogs think they can beat out news sources with quality and depth of coverage, they’re out of their minds. The difference is that we provide news through a filter. If you don’t like that filter, ok, we’re not for everyone. But we are what we are.
That's a new one...
...when I first started here at BloodyElbow I was called “Dana Whites brother” because people thought I treated the UFC as infallible. I am a huge UFC fan. Some people who write for the site regularly are more critical of their business decisions…I usually am not. What you get with a blog is going to be more subjective in nature than if this were a “news site.” We report the news we see…but we also provide an insight into how we think.
Honestly I am a bit of a fanboy at times. I don’t want to get to the point where I am jaded to the level where I don’t enjoy watching MMA.
The UFC is now the top company in the world…honestly good show or not for EXC that isn’t going to change any time soon. But, that doesn’t mean that a successful show for EXC wouldn’t have a profound impact on the state of MMA in general.
Contributing Editor - BloodyElbow.com - SBNation's mixed martial arts headquarters.
"The reason a lot of people do not recognize opportunity is because it usually goes around wearing overalls and looking like hard work." -- Thomas Edison
by Brent Brookhouse on May 31, 2008 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions
The fact alone that you were frowned upon for not hating Dana..
I won’t get long winded, because I have to be on my way, but I will say this..
I, too, hope that the EXC program is successful, for the world economy of MMA, so to speak. I am also of the opinion that the UFC is the top MMA organization in the world (it’s not arguable), but I would love for there to be many alternatives. However, arguing the business side of MMA so ravenously and rooting for the successes and/or failures of an organization/s? I’d have to be a share holder and, well, I’m not.. I just don’t see any reason to frown at the UFC when the product is so remarkable. If you wish the UFC were not as successful as they are, be careful what you wish for; this sport, as we know it, would simply not exist.
Enjoy the fights, gentlemen..
I actively root for...
...all MMA organizations that do things which benefit the sport. Something like YAMMA I couldn’t honestly root for. It was just such a disaster.
But EXC, IFL, DREAM, UFC…anything that is TRYING to do things the right way I will always pull for.
And just to clarify…it was just a few people commenting on the site that didn’t like my style and thought I was too sympathetic to the UFC. By and large our posters are smarter than that.
Contributing Editor - BloodyElbow.com - SBNation's mixed martial arts headquarters.
"The reason a lot of people do not recognize opportunity is because it usually goes around wearing overalls and looking like hard work." -- Thomas Edison
by Brent Brookhouse on May 31, 2008 4:46 PM EDT up reply actions
CBS and EliteXC
To me this is just another oversite of the big three television networks to adapt to what interests people today. They are going down the tubes (especially NBC) for not thinking ahead and being inventive to a changing market. Another example would be The Deadliest Catch and Ice Road Truckers. People are tired of programs that they can’t relate to.
I think Dana White is perfect in the role he plays for UFC. He puts a sophistication and a very intelligent face on MMA, which in the long run will bring in more and more fans who now disregard it as brutal.
Not to step on anyone’s toes, but the very definition of what a “blog” is can be found in the dictionary, which states it as an online diary, personal chronological log of thoughts published on a web page, typically updated daily to reflect the personality of the author. Check out www.dictionary.com.
As it is, all media has a bias of one sort or another, whether it’s politics or religion or sports. Some are better at hiding it than others. Personally, I come to BE for the opinions on the news. If I wanted to read straight news, I’d look up the associated press. I don’t believe BE has ever promoted itself as anything more than an MMA blog.
Besides, BE allows for a reader’s views to be heard. Being a part of SB nation allows you to post your own blogs, if I’m not mistaken.
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