Matt Hughes: Done?

Headlining UFC 85 is the match between Matt Hughes and Thiago Alves.  We have Matt Hughes on one side attempting to prove to the world he is still a tier 1 fighter.  We have Thiago Alves in the other corner attempting to beat a former champion and prove he is ready to fight for the title.

Thiago Alves is a 24 year old American Top Team prospect with a five victory win streak, four by way of KO/TKO (albeit one was a cut against Chris Lytle).  He has decent Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, and some devastating striking ability.

Matt Hughes held the belt longer than any other champion at 170, and his place in MMA history is a lock.  Matt Hughes' problem is that the game of MMA has changed dramatically in the last few years.  The dominant wrestler with no other abilities is nearly extinct, and Hughes is one of the last left.  His age is a non-issue.  Anderson Silva is two years younger, and Randy Couture is 10 years older.   Matt Hughes' fights in the last two years have not been the dominant Hughes of old.  Instead he has been destroyed twice by GSP, won a lackluster fight against Chris Lytle, won luckily against Penn when his body broke down, and to finish out '06 won a fight against an ancient Royce Gracie.

Hughes Recipe for Victory: Take this fight to the ground and force Alves to fight off of his back.

Thiago Recipe for Victory: Stuff the takedowns and exploit Hughes' non-existent striking ability.

And the latter is exactly what's going to happen.  Could Hughes win this?  Possibly.  However, it is not likely.  Ricardo Liborio and American Top Team are going to put a camp together to keep this fight on the feet.  Hughes will probably get a takedown or two, but his fight against Chris Lytle was very telling about his ability to end fights these days.  And with at least three stand ups in this fight, the outlook for Hughes is bleak.

Thiago Alves by KO or TKO in the second round.