UFC 84 Betting Odds
by Nick Thomas on May 22, 2008 8:49 AM EDT
in MMA News
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Sherk and Tito are interesting bets. I really want BJ to win and I'll be cheering for him but I think Sherk stands more then a decent chance at beating him. The face off at the weighins should be a good one.
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some good lines there
Tito, Jardine, and Palhares are hard to resist at those odds and Antonio Mendes is way way underrated. I don’t think he’ll win, but I give him a 30% chance to win so I’ll definitely bite at +500.
Keep in mind that B.J. opened up at -180 at most places, so this line has been bet up by a lot of sharps. It’s usually not a good idea to bet against the market, so unless you think there’s an inefficiency going on, I would stay away.
I think a solid bet here is Carwin.
I was hoping the Yoshida and Kim fights would have opened more favorably. I think Yoshida is more skilled than War Machine, but I’m afraid that Koppenhaver is going to be a lot bigger than him at fight time. I may end up putting a bet in if I see the weigh-ins and Yoshida looks OK.
Kim is going to smash Tan, and I wish that line was nicer. Kim is absolutely huge at 170 (I read on Sherdog that he walks around over 190), and I’m very excited to see his fight.
“Sharps” base there bets on inside info and statistical simulation. In MMA there are not a lot of stats, at least deterministic stats, so that is not a factor. There may be some inside info that we don’t have here on BE, but I doubt it. This line is not moving because of “sharps”, it’s moving because fans of MMA love BJ. It’s a drastic line move to be sure, but “sharps” don’t bet MMA unless the fix is in. Large moves are a signal of a few things and one of them could be smart money, but not in this case I think. The line on Penn opened up different all over the place. +160 on sports bet, -180 on pinnical, -225 on bodog, -230 on BetUS. If you think I am blowing smoke when I say there is not smart money in MMA then read the book "The Smart money" by Michael Konik. I am not saying people don’t win betting MMA. I am saying in the long run they will lose.
Maybe it is me not wanting to admit that I play a losing game. But I’ve not lost a cent in ‘08. I’ve lost a few bets, sure. But my bankroll has been going up steadily.
There is plenty of money to be made betting MMA, it’s just that there are a lot more rules to how to bet. There is no point playing big favorites really, don’t bet every fight on the card…etc.
Most people who lose a lot betting on MMA bet on 4-5 fights a show. I’m usually at 1-2…three if I am feeling really confident. It takes a lot of time analyzing, figuring out if the value really exists, and then deciding how much of your cash to throw down.
Contributing Editor - BloodyElbow.com - SBNation's mixed martial arts headquarters.
by Brent Brookhouse on May 22, 2008 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Fair enough, but remember this: to beat the house you have to MUCH better then them at making lines. If that were the case you would do better getting a job as a line setter. Its almost imposible to beat the juice.
Also, I am calling you cocky. Saying you are better then 99% of betters is something most better say. The house calls 100% of the bettign public suckers so it doesn’t matter. I am one of the few who knows I am going to lose. You’re better 11 to win 10. Don’t kid yourself.
Ah…now I’m not saying I’m better at gambling than 99% of betters. I’m saying that I trust my knowledge in MMA more than 99% of them. There is a reason I don’t gamble on football anymore. Even though I know the game very well and follow it closely I lost money…A LOT…because I was somewhere in the middle of “knowledgeable” gamblers with that sport.
I’ve had to scale back my work with this site a lot for the last month or so because of personal reasons. But before this small break I’m taking I was spending insane amounts of time reading up on the sport, breaking down film and generally eating and sleeping the sport. If you can honestly tell me that you think the vast majority of people who are betting on MMA spend 40-60 hours a week digesting the sport then I’m willing to concede that my knowledge is meaningless. You’re smart enough to know that the majority of gamblers are casual fans of a sport who put money on fights, games, events…whatever…just to make it slightly more interesting.
I’m not saying I’m the smartest MMA gambler on earth, nor am I saying that I don’t accept the reality that winning money is less likely than losing it…I’m simply saying that I trust my own knowledge in the sport more than 99% of people who gamble on it.
Contributing Editor - BloodyElbow.com - SBNation's mixed martial arts headquarters.
by Brent Brookhouse on May 22, 2008 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions
You might be better then 99% of MMA bettors as far as knowledge. I would say it is likely, but I am saying the guys who set the lines might spend 80 hours a week studying and those are the guys you have to beat. Hell, they don’t even mind if you beat them as long as they have enough suckers on the other side of the line. The next time you see a really great line you have to ask yourself “what do they know that I don’t”. Maybe nothing. Maybe they just have a lot of action on the other side. They knew Starnes would be a bust for some reason. Maybe they know Sherk was taking something and now he’s not. They house takes every edge it can. Its just not an even playing field.
Absolutely 100% agreed. But there are just as many times where they are moving the line just to keep up with where the money is going.
All I’m saying is someone with patience and restraint CAN make money. You can’t jump on a line without knowing as much of the story as possible. MMA is still a fairly open sport where fighters are very public about a lot that is going on. They also have camps full of guys who can’t keep their mouth shut and you can find out a lot about where a guy is at simply by listening. The house will generally have an edge, you just have to be smart enough to minimize that edge as much as possible and not just throw money at a fight simply because you think “oh that looks good.”
But if you are gambling strictly to make money and not because it is fun you’re probably going to be frustrated. That much I will agree with.
Contributing Editor - BloodyElbow.com - SBNation's mixed martial arts headquarters.
by Brent Brookhouse on May 22, 2008 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Um…I get that you’re trying to say there’s juice involved in any sports betting, but you aren’t usually “betting 11 to win 10).”
yes you are. Thats how betting works. In MMA there are no points so its all money line. You bet on the win. In sports like basball, football, basketball, ect. They have point spreads. Unless they adjust the spread you always bet 11 to win 10. That is the standard ratio.
I’ve gotta disagree with Mike on a few points.
Call me cocky but I still trust my MMA knowledge more than that of 99% of the betting public. The reason Penn has moved from -180 to around -250 is that the original line was a steal. Now it has moved to where I personally think Sherk is starting to be a steal. I’ve gone on record as saying I think Sherk will take the win here but that doesn’t mean I think he should be favored. I just think Penn should be closer to -220. The line seems to have over adjusted on the fight.
I’m staying away from Yoshida/Koppenhaver as there’s too many variables there.
I’m betting pretty large on Tan. I’m thinking the chances of Kim smashing him are pretty small. Winning? sure. Smashing? not so likely.
I think there is a touch of value in Etim since Clementi is making a quick turnaround and that could factor into things. But its another fight that I probably won’t play.
Jardine is a really nice bet even though I am picking Silva to pull this one out.
Contributing Editor - BloodyElbow.com - SBNation's mixed martial arts headquarters.
by Brent Brookhouse on May 22, 2008 2:23 PM EDT reply actions
FYI, I’m MikeyPatriot, the dude that wrote the gambling articles awhile back.
szucconi,
The linesmakers are nowhere near as efficient at setting MMA lines as they are for baseball or football. You seem to have this idea that Vegas lines are infallible. A great example is the Chael Sonnen/Paulo Filho II opening line. Sonnen opened up at +450. PLUS FOUR HUNDRED FIFTY. Even after the first fight where Sonnen dominated until Filho hit an armbar.
Squares usually don’t bet right after the lines are released. Why? Because they aren’t checking everyday for the lines of fights that aren’t happening 1-2 months down the line. They bet within a few days of the cards. So when a line goes up and it moves one way or the other within the first couple days, it’s usually a sign of smart money.
You don’t need inside information to be a smart. With fringe sports like MMA, it is possible to beat the house (or market) straight up with quality analysis. It’s much, much, much harder with mainstream sports.
Finally, while the “Smart Money” is an entertaining read, I don’t know what that has to do with betting MMA.
P.S. I’m pretty sure the +160 Penn line at SportsBet was a mistake.
Yes, the lines have some holes, but my point is can you tell a hole from insider info? Thinking your sharp is a good way to lose a lot of units. I check the lines everyday on a lot of sides. I watch old DVDs before events to break down fighters and predict match ups. I know a little about the sport, but I don’t think I am going to win in the long run. Its for fun. The vig puts you in the hole and one fight where the line looks great and the bookie knows something you don’t and your whole system/profit is sunk. Making money for two months is one thing. “Smart Money” was a great book, but my point was lost on you. The house wins. Vegas wasn’t built by winners. The house takes every edge it can. Maybe you are better then the house. I would say to you, stop betting and start making lines. You will make tons more money.
Yeah the +160 line was a mistake. It moved from +160 to -265. Its not the first time the online sites have made errors. They made a similar error with Miguel Torres v. Jeff Bedard. They had reversed lines for a short amount of time.
If you really don’t think people can win long term sports betting, you’re really naive. I don’t know what else to say. It’s not easy, but it can be done.
And the “Smart Money” is such a bad example. The syndicates made tons of money. Disproving your point. Konik is not a sharp, proven at various points in the book.
The large betting syndicates stay away from sports without stats. MMA is much less predictable because its an individual sport and based on things that can’t be converted into numbers. You need to pick match ups and estimate skill based on rumor and fights that happened months ago under diffrent conditions. Can you pick winners? sure. Can you make money over the long term? unlikely. If you can produce a better line then the book makers then you have a new career.
I will let you in on something. I like betting baseball. I win in the long term. Lets just say I have faith in statistics. I lose what I made in baseball on MMA. I bet on who I want to win (which I know is stupid) for fun.
Guys like Mike and I...
will never lose our entire profits on a single fight no matter how jacked up a line seems to be. Someone who wants to make money in the long run is never going to say “whoa! check out that line! I’m going to bet my entire bankroll on that!” My bankroll since dream 1 is up 50%. It’s through knowledge, restraint and yeah…a fair amount of things breaking your way.
But this includes betting on events such as DREAM, UFC, IFL, EXC, ICON…so it isn’t like my system is “bet on fights I think are neato and getting lucky.”
You can make money gambling and you can DEFINITELY make money gambling on MMA. And yes…Mike and I both mean you can do so longterm.
Contributing Editor - BloodyElbow.com - SBNation's mixed martial arts headquarters.
by Brent Brookhouse on May 23, 2008 12:15 AM EDT up reply actions
I know. You guys are great. Would you like the house to increase your limit? How about they comp your meals?
I really do hope you guys win. I wish you the best of luck, but general treands say you won’t and you don’t have any evidence that you will (in the form of hard numbers). Sure you can say you made money recently, but that isn’t enough to prove anything. I never meant you would lose everything on one match. I just meant your picks will be thrown by some information you don’t have. You will be attracted to the lines that are off due to info you don’t have. It will appear that they have good value when they wouldn’t if you had a complete picture on the fight. The margin for error in analysis for MMA is higher. That coupled with the juice makes it more difficult then other sports. Is that proof that you can’t make money betting on MMA? no. I just know that Vegas would love your attitude. I didn’t read Mike’s article about gambling a while back, but I know I had to re-teach some people about a few of the parts that were missing.
06 – 17% overall increase in my bank for the year
07 – 14% overall increase in my bank
08 – roughly 45% increase due to increased amounts of time being able to be devoted to analysis of the sport (but I haven’t done the full match this year yet..but I do expect that to level off to where at the end of the year it will be around the 20% mark)
Sure, there will be lines where I’m drawn to something where the guys making the lines have info I don’t. Starnes was a perfect example of that. I lost hardcore (by my standards) on that fight. But like Mike said, MMA lines are generally easier to beat through pure analysis than other sports and the guys making the lines still don’t fully have a grasp on the sport.
I’ve been pretty up front on this site over the past year on what bets I was making on events. So I think there is at least a year’s worth (which is a fairly long period of time in a sport with as short of a life as MMA) of data showing that people can make money.
You seem to be taking this to be “we never lose a bet” I can’t speak for Mike, but I lose plenty. I just win more than I lose. I’m not saying I make the kind of profit to where I can live through gambling only. Not at all…but I haven’t ended a year with less money in my “gambling fund” than I started in the 3 years I have seriously bet on the sport. If I’m expected to say after 2.5 years of positive results that you can’t be ahead long term..well…I just can’t do that.
Contributing Editor - BloodyElbow.com - SBNation's mixed martial arts headquarters.
by Brent Brookhouse on May 23, 2008 1:40 AM EDT up reply actions
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