FiELDS Dynamite! Betting Odds
by Kid Nate on Dec 25, 2008 7:18 PM EST
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PrintFrom Japan-MMA:
The odds are currently:
Joachim Hansen -115
Jz Cavalcante -115
Eddie Alvarez -115
Shinya Aoki -115
Semmy Schilt -600
Siala Siliga +450
Daisuke Nakamura -110
Hideo Tokoro -120
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Mo might be a good bet
Schilt’s hands aren’t devastating enough to put him away even with 4 oz gloves on and despite the serious difference in submission ability I have a feeling Semmy will have a very hard time getting him down and even more trouble keeping him there. Siala is nowhere near as experienced but he’s 3-0 with a win over Warpath. Not a GREAT win but it shows he’s got enough ability to not have his weak point easily exploited.
Also Mo with 4 oz gloves on DEFINATELY has the power to put Schilt to sleep if he can shove him against the ropes or into a corner and land an overhead right. I think I would definately lay a little action on that fight but I’ve only got a BetUS account and this, (as of when it was originally posted), was only on 1 betting site.
Mo might be worth taking a chance on depending on how you’re betting, but considering the size difference and Schilt’s previous victory over Mo in K-1, don’t get your hopes up. Semmy has a good jab, and if it goes to the clinch, he can easily bring a knee up to Mo’s chin, like he does against a lot of smaller K-1 fighters.
I’m not a betting man at the moment, but at those lines, Alvarez and JZ are decent value Dice-K Nakamura is also a good pick considering he usually fights at 183lbs while Tokoro’s optimal weight is about 137lbs.
I only bet heavy dogs where I think Vegas is too heavy on the favorite
Even when I’m sure the favorite SHOULD win… In MMA too much shit happens. I laid a couple bucks on Dos Santos and was rewarded despite having to shake my head after the fight. I was gonna play on the last Faber fight because I had a bad feeling and the odds on Brown were so long but I laid off that one. I narrowly missed a 20-1 Payday betting Manny to KO De La Hoya in 9-12.
I feel theres too much risk – to too little reward betting even fights in MMA unless i’m playing against friends for beers.
It works for me more often than not.
Damn good point about Schilt’s knees though. Thanks for pointing that out. Thats definately his best weapon when he can throw more than 1 knee per clinch and I completely blew it off. But at +400 I might still drop 50 bucks on the fight.
Vegas has smartened up. I max bet $500 on Min Soo Kim over Minowa awhile back, and made huge money on some Japanese cards in the past, but Vegas seems to be paying attention nowadays.
Betting even fights comes down to Parlays in my opinion, and I’ve luckily won some huge wons, notably a 10k one at the UFN featuring Speer being demolished by Johnson. Of course, with that have come some significant losses, but I can safely say I’m way above my starter money.
With that said… you’re right, too much shit can happen in MMA, but more often than not, good research and analysis can at least help you win more times than not.
Editor-in-chief of MMA-Analyst.com
by Leland Roling on Dec 26, 2008 12:18 PM EST up reply actions
Mo might be worth taking? Smoogy, you crack baby. After seeing Mo get his leg demoralized last year, I’m taking Schilt and not betting on this one. I think Mo in 4 oz. gloves presents a problem, but not enough for me to risk. Maybe I’ll throw $10 down, but that’s about all I will risk.
I like Dice-K and I’d parlay him with the two main event fights for a big win. I like the fact that Alvarez presents the same problems Hansen did against Aoki.
JZ vs. Hansen is the bout that tilted my parlay, and I haven’t decided which way I want to go.
Editor-in-chief of MMA-Analyst.com
by Leland Roling on Dec 26, 2008 12:23 PM EST up reply actions
Calvan, Hansen, Mo, and Tokoro are locks.
"A lie gets halfway around the world before the truth has a chance to get its pants on." - Sir Winston Churchill
Why the hell did I say Hansen when I meant Alvarez? That’s my bad. I meant Calvan, Alvarez, Mo, and Tokoro.
"A lie gets halfway around the world before the truth has a chance to get its pants on." - Sir Winston Churchill
Is this a Wand lock? Because all those locks are losing then… (inside joke)
Anyways, I agree with Smoogy, Tokoro isn’t a lock at all, and I’d go so far to say Mo isn’t either. Hansen vs. JZ is still tough to call, but I do think Alvarez can beat Aoki.
Editor-in-chief of MMA-Analyst.com
by Leland Roling on Dec 26, 2008 12:25 PM EST up reply actions
I am happy to say
BetUS is now carrying the Dynamite fights though their odds aren’t as good as either BetCRIS or 5Dimes. BetUS’s action is Schilt -700 and Mo +400.
Lol I wish I was confident enough to say Mo is a lock at +400 to +450… I definately feel he is no more than a +300 dog though.
Are you just looking at the fight finder or did you actually see that fight? I don’t think anyone who has seen that fight would suggest that Mo could take down Semmy, mount him, and then beat the crap out of him with GnP. Moreoever, I don’t think anyone would take Mo to come close to winning had they seen him fight at any point over the last 18 months.
LMAO. He looked like crap against Aerts? It was a very ugly fight , but Semmy didn’t look like crap. Even if you did think he looked bad, it was against Peter Aerts, one of the best kickboxers in the world. Mighty Mo is not even close to that level. Using the fight finder again like the Kharitonov fight?
If you want to see a dog crap performance, watch Mighty Mo vs. Kyoutaro Ranger from April. Mo was given a handpicked, less experienced, much smaller opponent to get him an easy win after his losing streak. Instead, he was more or less embarassed as Ranger just fed him leg kicks and avoided the overhand right (aka the only punch Mo knows).
not sure why Aoki isn’t a favorite. Hansens’s win over him wasn’t impressive, it was actually quite lucky. I’ll take Aoki and JZ.
That's just a big son of a bitch -- that's all there is to it.
Same could be said about Aoki’s win over Calvan. And I don’t see Hansen’s win as lucky. He pounded the ever-loving crap out of him. Next thing you’ll say is that Mousasi got lucky with his upkick on Jacare.
"A lie gets halfway around the world before the truth has a chance to get its pants on." - Sir Winston Churchill
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