Business Outlook for UFC 92
by Michael Rome on Dec 24, 2008 6:09 PM EST
in MMA News
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Heading into UFC 92, things look good for the UFC. According to the Wrestling Observer Newsletter (subscription only), they need to break the 489,000 buy mark to break the single year PPV revenue record set by the WWE in 2001, and I believe they will do so fairly easily.
MMA Payout reports that Countdown to UFC 92 did 733,000 viewers Monday night. The number is significantly better than the last, and higher than the average. The countdown obviously doesn't tell the whole story, but it suggests an interest level. I believe the countdown special was so effective that most of those viewers will end up purchasing a show with three huge matches. I'm going to go ahead and predict a buyrate of 600,000, with an outside possibility of a high number if new fans that purchased UFC 91 decide to stick around after such a great show.
The show is expected to do a gate somewhere in the 3 million range, or a little below. Dave Meltzer reported that they've sold over $2 million worth, and by the time casino buys come in the number will be close to $3 million. It's not a home run by any stretch, but in this economy it is still a solid number.
The outcome of fights is also crucial to business outlook. If Frank Mir defeats Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, the UFC has a mega money match in Lesnar-Mir II. However, that looks unlikely, and Lesnar-Nogueira can do very well too if the fans take to Nogueira coming off the reality show.
In Rampage Jackson vs. Wanderlei Silva, the UFC can't really lose either way. Both guys are marketable, but Jackson is more of a proven draw. Jackson-Griffin II is a big fight if it ever happens.
Forrest Griffin vs. Rashad Evans is a match that the UFC probably wants Forrest to win. Forrest can carry a main event against just about anybody at this point. Visions of Rashad Evans vs. Lyoto Machida for the 205 title probably give Dana White chills regularly. If Rashad wins, I think it is certain that the winner of Silva and Jackson will get the next shot rather than Lyoto Machida. Rashad winning is no disaster though, he has the potential to draw in the future with a big win here.
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I find it funny how Thiago Silva ia not considered at all as a potential contender. I would have to disagree.
by iamtheoriginalchris on Dec 25, 2008 9:46 AM EST up reply actions
I think next year will dwarf this year
You’re going to have Lesnar returning in April and fighting again, win or lose. That could be 1.6-2 million buys for those two events alone. A robust HW division. GSP/BJ II (and the possibility of GSP-Anderson Silva in the summer). The LHW division capable of creating a great main card fight every month of the year.
Anyone who wants to bet Affliction is putting on MMA shows in 2010, let me know.
We’re witnessing history here. Leaps and bounds.
by Derek Suboticki on Dec 24, 2008 7:00 PM EST reply actions
UFC’s dream scenario for Lesnar: Beat Nog, beat Mir in a rematch, face Randy in a rematch. Those 3 fights would likely come near 3 million buys.
by Michael Rome on Dec 24, 2008 7:01 PM EST up reply actions
If Lesnar beats Nog
He no longer needs Randy for a huge payday. He’ll be the guy who walked into MMA and took out two of the top three HWs within his first year. Sure, it would be humongous (especially if Randy can take out a good HW or two between now and then… but I don’t have him beating a lot of them these days :-o )
By that time, Gonzaga/Carwin will be ready for a true monster fight. THAT’S your Ultimate 2009 headliner.
by Derek Suboticki on Dec 24, 2008 7:06 PM EST up reply actions
amazing how fast fans write people off at the expense of a guy like Carwin that has shown nothing. Randy wins one fight against the loser of Nog/Mir and his title rematch probably breaks the buyrate record.
by Michael Rome on Dec 24, 2008 7:33 PM EST up reply actions
Well, I didn't say he was irrelevant - just unnecessary
If Randy can beat a top five HW in the interim, absolutely – he’s got two fights left and no one would bitch if his last was another title shot.
But the ‘if’ in that sentence is staggering to me. I do not see the Randy that fought Brock Lesnar beating Nog or Mir, and I think he’d lose a rematch to Zag.
Age hits hard when it hits, and I think we’ve seen that here.
by Derek Suboticki on Dec 24, 2008 7:42 PM EST up reply actions
Does anyone remember who Frank Mir is? He’s terrible. Randy, or just about anyone, would utterly destroy him.
by Michael Rome on Dec 24, 2008 7:51 PM EST up reply actions
I’ve made my longstanding, unjustified faith in Mir’s ability well known.
by Derek Suboticki on Dec 24, 2008 7:55 PM EST up reply actions
Who are these people that will line up to see a 46 year old man fight Frank Mir, particularly if Mir loses to Noguiera? Frank Mir has never, ever, ever drawn a dime in his life.
by D.Capitated on Dec 24, 2008 10:43 PM EST up reply actions
Randy did 520,000 against Gonzaga, who is almost a negative draw. He’ll do money against anyone.
by Michael Rome on Dec 24, 2008 11:28 PM EST up reply actions
1) It was 485K
2) Randy had just made a monster comeback in winning the heavyweight title. This time, Randy just got knocked out pretty badly.
by D.Capitated on Dec 25, 2008 12:06 AM EST up reply actions
It should be noted that Mir would be coming off a loss following a TUF season notable for its low ratings. Gonzaga coheadlined UFC 70 where he won in the main event via hyperviolent headkick. Mir/Couture does maybe 300,000 unless you can get the title back on one of those guys before hand. That ain’t happening.
by D.Capitated on Dec 25, 2008 12:07 AM EST up reply actions
The season isn’t notable for its low ratings. The ratings are basically right where they’ve been the last few years give or take a couple thousand people. It had a bad finale rating.
Mir/Couture doing 300k is as likely as Affliction’s first show doing that number, which may be why you had such faith in their business model to begin with.
by Michael Rome on Dec 25, 2008 12:21 AM EST up reply actions
The ratings have been mediocre at best and awful at worst. The worst episode ratings wise for TUF ever was in this past season.
As for Couture being able to garner buyrates, I think its foolish to assume that the public didn’t, you know, notice Randy getting KOed. Those sorts of things matter, you know. And please, save the BIZ talk for someone else, michrome. Weren’t people supposed to stop trying to run against the UFC by now? Meanwhile, I see EXC is coming back, Strikeforce is probably gonna be on NBC, Affliction still exists, and someone is gonna spend a bunch of money to try and get a permanent ESPN slot. Funny how that worked out.
EXC is dead and Affliction’s coming behind. Strikeforce survives by not challenging the UFC.
Welcome to 2009, the year the MMA landscape gets a little more Zuffa dominated.
by Derek Suboticki on Dec 25, 2008 2:24 AM EST up reply actions
Meanwhile, I see EXC is coming back, Strikeforce is probably gonna be on NBC, Affliction still exists, and someone is gonna spend a bunch of money to try and get a permanent ESPN slot. Funny how that worked out.
Well, I am laughing.
Did you know we are in high demand, Laura?
by Eugene Schelfaut on Dec 25, 2008 12:57 PM EST up reply actions
GSP was also on that card with Randy
" Tell me something Steve, How does a guy from Puerto Rico loose a ball in the Sun? "
And Carwin is a physical beast
Which is what the casual fan wants to see. You put Beast v Beast and the numbers go up.
by Derek Suboticki on Dec 24, 2008 7:43 PM EST up reply actions
The numbers go okay, they wouldn’t even approach the universe of a Randy Couture rematch. It’s the basics of promoting, they need to build Carwin.
by Michael Rome on Dec 24, 2008 7:52 PM EST up reply actions
If randy wins his next fight and lesnar wins…
The Randy v Lesnar rematch will be the biggest ppv buy in UFC history.
Even then it’s win-win.
If Brock wins it is a true crowning, it is like Wand beating Sakuraba again.
If Randy pulls it off, you have the trilogy which would once again break the record.
For building a guy like Carwin, it takes more than one fight to make him a star. That fight will be the first time fans beyond the internet even take notice of him. Even if he wins, which I find highly doubtful, it takes a long time of fans seeing your fights on PPV, unleashed, etc before you become a bigtime draw. I’m partially a proponent of doing Cain and Carwin as coaches for the second season next year just to accelerate this process.
by Michael Rome on Dec 24, 2008 8:16 PM EST up reply actions
I hug the shit out of Carwin’s nuts because he trains in Colorado – full disclosure.
If Randy did beat Brock, the third fight would outsell any PPV ever.
by Derek Suboticki on Dec 24, 2008 8:42 PM EST up reply actions
My only gripe with the Sakuraba analogy is the size differential. Wand was the bigger fighter every time. Lesnar is the bigger fighter every time, although to a much more significant degree.
Petty, I know.
I really just mean in terms of importance. I don’t think the fights themselves are really analagous at all.
by Michael Rome on Dec 24, 2008 10:29 PM EST up reply actions
Lets not rewrite history…
I think the reality of Randy getting too old has finally set in. When he re-peaked nobody was saying he was going to be a champion for several years. Everyone knew he had a short window to make a run and I think most know it has closed. He burned a lot of time in a contract dispute.
As far as Carwin…..who knows but you brought him up…not me. The time it would take Randy to fight Lesnar again in your scenario is likely more than a year. Who knows how fast the MMA landscape will change by them.
And my use of “new name” was a general term for the UFC that could include Fedor. He would be “new” to the UFC.
I just can’t buy the age thing when he was better in every way in the Lesnar fight than he was early in his career. He was quite easily able to get up and counter Brock’s wrestling, when early in his career big guys were a gigantic problem for him. Bottom line is he got hammered by a big shot behind the ear by Lesnar’s gigantic hands and went down, for most of his career he would have never got Lesnar off of him.
by Michael Rome on Dec 24, 2008 9:10 PM EST up reply actions
I didn’t see that at all. He got taken down, and when he tried to reverse position and take the back, he was shaken off with ease. Brock didn’t need to take him down and pound him out over a long period because he stopped him standing before that became necessary. It would be like blaming Mike Tyson for not throwing enough body shots when he stops a guy in 2 rounds.
by D.Capitated on Dec 24, 2008 10:40 PM EST up reply actions
Not a problem.
I don’t think that the UFC has to worry about anything. In these three huge matches they should catch just about everyone who has followed MMA for any time at all. Not to mention the casual fans who just want to see exciting fights, which this card is full of. I can’t remember the last time I was this excited about something and I have two kids and one on the way. I told my ol’ lady as soon as they released the details of this card that this was all I wanted for Christmas. I can’t wait till Saturday!
Griffin via TKO in the third around 2:20 to 2:50
Nogueira via armbar in the second around 1:30 to 1:45
Silva via total stompage in the second around 2:00 to 2:30
Watch and see!
The real question is will next years ppv buys beat this years…
Lots of variables to consider including the economy… recession helps this business but if the shit really hits the fan then there will be a bunch of unknowns to consider.
Ive always said UFC will be at capacity and have all that is necessary with 20 stars (Randy Couture Caliber)…
Then you can simply rotate in and out as old stars fade away and new ones emerge.
UFC is at less than a 1/3rd capacity at the moment.
So there’s lots of room to grow.
For one the price can be raised 5 bucks to 49.95 and it won’t negatively effect volume one iota.
That’s all gravy.
The “Star Making” system needs to continue to improve and be tweaked…
Alot of it has to do with time, seasoning, longevity, establishing a certain history…
Repetition is the best weapon.
If Machida beats T. Silva, he’s earned his shot. Hell, he earned it awhile ago. Machida beat Ortiz, who beat Griffin and had a draw with Evans. Actually, Machida dominated Ortiz. Marketable or not, he’s due a title shot. At the very least he deserves to fight the winner of Wand/Page for #1 contender status. Machida is the best at 205 in my opinion, and opened up alot more against Ortiz than he has in the past. I don’t understand why everybody seems to hate the guy so much. I want to know who the best in the world at each weight class is, regardless of how they win. Yes, I know it’s all about who brings in the most buys, but in my opinion a system needs to be put in place that puts the most worthy opponent in line for the title shot, not the most marketable.
Machida doesn’t have the OMGWTF highlights like so many others – he’s so cerebral a fighter that the any charm of watching him fight is limited (he’s analogous to guitarist Yngwie Malmsteen – technical virtuoso, but not necessarily entertaining). I do agree he’s earned his title shot, and he is actually one of my favorite fighters – I like how he defies the traditional brawler image that so many casual fans enjoy. I hope his game develops into finishes, if for no other reason than to increase his marketability, but I’m totally for Machida LHW Champ ’09.
Ever tried. Ever failed. No matter. Try Again. Fail again. Fail better. -Samuel Beckett
by Scott C. Broussard on Dec 25, 2008 12:20 AM EST up reply actions
Hopefully if machida doesnt get the immediate title shot after, he gets to fight a highprofile fight, like the winner of shogun/coleman or wand/rampage, then they wouldnt have an excuse not to give him the next shot if he still wins.
http://weoweoweo.deviantart.com/
by Anton Tabuena on Dec 25, 2008 3:43 AM EST up reply actions
I don’t think people hate Machida. I think people are frustrated by his style and the fact that even when he does appear to dominate and have opportunities to finish, he retreats. Personally, I think he’s amazing to watch but I do find him enigmatic, in that he’s in the fight game but is constantly avoiding the fight.
by jebushchrist on Dec 26, 2008 3:42 PM EST up reply actions
However if you are a fan of Point Karate Matches. Then Machida is your man. I can’t wait until he has the belt. Then we can watch him move around the octagon for 5 rounds instead of 3.
You think Anderson Silva is a weak draw. Wait until we have Machida taking up 40 minutes of every PPV he is on.
" Tell me something Steve, How does a guy from Puerto Rico loose a ball in the Sun? "
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