The Case for Rampage Jackson
by Michael Rome on Dec 22, 2008 9:04 AM EST
in MMA News
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From what I can tell, nearly all analysis of the third Jackson-Silva fight has focused on intangibles. What is going on with Jackson's trial? How has the move overseas affected him? Is Silva in his head?
All of these things matter, but this is still a fight, not a therapy session. It's going to be primarily determined by the way their styles collide, and because Jackson's style has changed so dramatically since their first two fights, I don't think those fights are a reliable indicator of what is going to happen this time. It's been well over four years since their second fight, and things have changed. A lot.
Wanderlei Silva is no longer the invincible monster that went 17 fights without a loss before his High Octane fight with Jackson, and I don't think fighting Jackson again is going to bring that man back. In 2003 and 2004, Jackson was scared to stand and trade with Wanderlei Silva. His striking was powerful but basic, and he wanted to get Silva down. I do not believe that will be his strategy this time. His game has evolved to the point where he relies almost exclusively on his boxing superiority and punching power; I'd be shocked if we see him shooting for takedowns unless he gets badly hurt.
If Jackson can keep Silva in check and turn it into a boxing match, he will tear Silva apart. Jackson's boxing in 2008 is a lot cleaner than Silva's; he has more powerful punches, a much better left hand, far superior head movement, and the ability to put together advanced combinations that Silva doesn't even attempt. If Silva can turn it into a reckless brawl, then the advantage is his, but even then it is still essentially a tossup.
Wanderlei Silva has history and the intangibles on his side, but Jackson has the stylistic advantage. In 2008, I do not believe that in a fight where both men will likely stand in front of each other and trade until the other goes down that Wanderlei Silva will survive longer than Rampage Jackson. I am picking Rampage Jackson via KO, round 2.
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Michael
You and I are in the minority here. However, I agree that Jackson has a much better chance of beating Silva than most people think.
http://mma4real.net/
I’m not sure why so many people seem to be so confident in Wanderlei. His dominating performances over Rampage just don’t seem as relevant to me now. Unless these outside the cage factors do significantly affect Rampage, I think he should win. Knocking out Jardine just doesn’t convince me that the old Wanderlei has returned.
by Cannon Jacques on Dec 21, 2008 10:32 PM EST reply actions
Rampage might stand a chance if he keeps it on the outside and uses his reach advantage, but up close I think he will be in for some trouble. His primary attack from the clinch is to collar his opponent and feed them uppercuts, something which is not likely to work against Vondairlay. Rampage has evolved since their last fight, but I still think Silva has superior power and versatility in a stand-up battle.
I think Jackson’s uppercut is actually going to work very well for him. His is the best in MMA, and the tool just wasn’t there in 2004 the way it is now. In a battle between Jackson’s uppercuts and Silva’s knees up close, I pick Jackson’s uppercuts. I also just think his body shots and combinations are too good for what Silva does now.
Of course, I think this is going to be a very close fight. I’m not a crazy fan saying one guy will destroy the other. My concern for Silva is his knack for standing flatfooted and trading with guys when he shouldn’t. By all means he has the tools to beat Liddell, but standing in front of him like that was just a recipe to lose.
by Michael Rome on Dec 21, 2008 11:43 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, if he fights Rampage like he fought Liddell it probably won’t be a good night for him, but I’d like to think that was more about nerves than anything. If he has the guts to just close in and feed Rampage like he did with Jardine, then it could easily be deja vu all over again. At least thats how I’m talking myself into this fight…
WRONG
Hell ya it matters, think of all the pressure in this fight (and we all know what happens to Rampage under pressure), the money, the pride, the #1 contender spot, i mean this is gonna have a huge impact on their life and their family an sht. And buddy doesnt think it matters.
Rampage is probably at home thinking.. "how the hell am i gonna beat wanderlei???"
Wanderlei: "Oh its the 27th today?? time to smack my btch up"
LOL
It’s surprising to see that this fight currently has over 50% of the votes on the UFC site for the most anticipated fight of the card. Griffin vs Evans is second with 33% and Nog vs Mir has just 13%.
I think the UFC’s making a mistake putting this fight on the show before Nog vs Mir and CB vs Massenzio.
I don’t think match order matters, everyone buys the show. I think this fight should be front and center for promotion though and they are focusing on Mir-Nog instead. Still, the short preview of tomorrow night’s countdown has me so stoked for Wand and Jackson.
A note on card structure: When there are three “main events” the UFC usually puts one of them second on the card, so the crowd gets a breather with a popcorn fight before the two main events. This has nothing to do with stature, it is a tactic to make sure the major fights come across as a big deal. See: Sokoudjou vs. Machida at 79, Ortiz vs. Machida at 84, Huerta vs. Florian at 87.
by Michael Rome on Dec 22, 2008 4:42 AM EST up reply actions
i just cant see rampage winning this fight by any other way then decision. liddell tagged wand with some very solid shots and couldnt put him away, and rampage couldnt finish forrest after he dropped him. rampage just doesnt have the killer instinct to put wand away, so if he doesnt put wand on his back and cuddle up for a nap he will get smashed on his feet.
This MMA Math doesn’t really apply. Jackson hits much harder than Liddell, and didn’t finish Forrest because Forrest locked his arms up and recovered real fast. Wand had been brutally KO’ed two fights straight before Liddell…again, it doesn’t mean anything for this fight, but he is hardly immune to being finished.
by Michael Rome on Dec 22, 2008 3:04 AM EST up reply actions
huh?
im not sure how you get that Jackson hits harder then Liddell, and aside from that the “MMA Math” i was doing was to give one example of “killer instinct” and you kinda proved my point. Wand has great recovery (like Forrest) so unless Rampage can put him out on his feet a la Eastman and Liddell i dont see him finishing Silva. i understand that Wanderlei is not invincible and very well could get KOed, but i just dont see him pulling it off. i know MMA fans have very short term memories, so i’ll remind you of something, Rampage is NOT a great striker he got this striker moniker in the UFC by KOing Eastman (glassjaw) Liddell (got sloppy) and standing with Hendo (a wrestler) so like i said if Jackson doesnt take it to the ground and try to work from there he will be playing with fire.
by RJ St.Croix on Dec 22, 2008 12:11 PM EST up reply actions
I’m a huge Wandy fan. Really big. I like him more than Page. But there was a mystique that he had in Pride that he no longer has and his flash knockout of Jardine hasn’t convinced me that he’s the same guy that is going to take Page out. There are a few things. One, he was fed a lot of cans in Pride. He fought some toughies too, but there were some cans in there. Two, I just think he looks smaller now. His shoulders don’t wrap around his head like they used to. Rampage is Way way better too. Not to mention that he’s been training with a new camp. I gotta say my gut says Rampage, even though I’d love a Wandy win.
This is clearly the most anticipated fight for anyone following MMA over the last couple years. I for one am stoked, almost as much as for GSP vs Penn.
Page definitely has more power than liddell, or is at least as powerful. Most people who fight him agree that his punches are as hard as they come.
The one thing that sticks in my head is this: camps.
Rampage is working with Bisping and Wolfslair, while Silva is training with Nog, Couture, Forrest and the rest of Extreme Couture.
Does anyone disagree that Silva has a much better crew? Randy worked with Forrest to create a gameplan to beat Page, I think he can do the same for Silva.
The main reason you can’t really rely on the first 2 fights in pride and primarily can’t rely on any fights in pride and in Japan for that matter is because of Drug TESTING.
Yeah people can cheat the Commission Testing but there is a huge difference in cycling down and other methods for quicker recovery in training than the shooting up these guys did/do in japan…
It’s like 2 super humans fighting each other all pumped up with pain killers, and all this other shit.
Quick test – go do some pcp and you’ll be able to punch a whole through the wall and not even feel it.
Was it everyone? no… but it was prevalent enough where you can’t really rely on Japans fights as indicators for real “MMA”.
By your logic – that means all fighters were doped to the gills. So if they were both doped to the gills when the first two fights happened, how will that make a difference now (all else being equal)?
I’m sick of people using the “no drug testing in PRIDE” and “everyone was juicing” but then pretending like only selective people were doping for the sake of their arguments. Was it rampant and everyone was doing it? Or was it just some people doing it like they while others just decided out of the goodness of their competitive spirit not to?
That’s the point… there was NO TESTING, so you don’t know who did or didn’t…
You may just take painkillers while the other pumps himself full of pcp… too many variables – too many different kind of drugs.
Some fighters will look worse and some fighters will look better.
I guess my point was the whole “prisoner’s dilemma”. You’re right you can never really tell who was and who wasn’t, which does make these past fights a wash in terms of being a proper barometer…but I just find it hard to believe if people knew it wasn’t illegal and that their opponent was jacked up (or in the least thought they were) that they wouldn’t take advantage of it.
Regardless, Saturday can’t come soon enough and we won’t need to predict or guess anything.
Have you seen Wanderlei Silva recently? He looks to be in probably the best shape we’ve ever seen him, and he looks like he’s even more powerful. I don’t believe he’s pushing the “roids” anymore as that would be picked up in Nevada by the NSAC random testing.
Editor-in-chief of MMA-Analyst.com
by Leland Roling on Dec 22, 2008 9:31 AM EST up reply actions
I agree that Rampage has improved since Pride, but
I think its silly to think that Silva has remained static.
I think this will be a close fight that anyone can win, but I would give the mental advantage to Silva.
I don't agree
I love when people say, “stylistically this is a good matchup” or something to that effect, and then don’t explain further. Rampage is a VERY good fighter. But this always has been and always will be a bad matchup for him. As long as Wand comes in healthy, he wins this fight 9 out of 10.
Rampage’s hands have improved dramatically with Juanito over the last few years. He throws 5 and 6 punch combos now and his uppercut is a thing of beauty. He keeps his chin tucked, and his power is fantastic.
BUT……Rampage has Never been good at throwing kicks. And as you can see in the Forrest fight he does not check kicks all that well either. His head movement is very good but without the threat of a lead kick or takedown, its very hard to get inside on Wand to throw those great hands of his. He is not the best setup guy, especially against someone as aggressive as Wand. He has not attempted takedowns as much as he used to, and they were never the most dynamic of takedowns to begin with. He is more of a slammer. 18 months of training with some of the best wrestlers in the sport at couture’s has most certainly improved Wand’s takedown defense.
In the second fight Rampage was able to ride position on Wand and deliver decent ground and pound for most of the round. But that was in Japan. Japanese and American officicating are very different at times. I do not think Mazzagatti, Livigne, or Yamasaki are going to allow Rampage to ride position for quite that long without either a sub attempt or passing guard, and niether he does well at all. And when the stand ups come, that is where Wand wins this fight. Sorry. Short of catching Wand on the button and knocking him out I see another win for Wand.
by Nick Travaglini on Dec 22, 2008 8:59 AM EST reply actions
I’m as big a Wandy mark as they come, but realistically…
(a) Wandy is going to have to get back to tossing leg kicks like he used to back in the day
(b) Page has a reach/size advantage, meaning Silva will probably be in punching range when he’s firing off these low kicks – so Silva will have to be smart and set them up or a lazy low kick could be just like Chuck’s lazy body shot attempt.
© Page does a good job of being patient and maximizing his reach, which could see Silva get impatient and start coming in wildly and flat footed at perfect range.
I still like Wandy to win this fight as I think he’s acclimating to the new rules (which hamstring him and Shogun worse than almost any other fighter I can think of) and the cage pretty quickly and doing all the right things by working with XC. But this is going to be an all-out war and I cannot wait until Saturday night.
I'm going to disagree...
Michael, thorough analysis of this bout and I commend the efforts of actually breaking this fight down exactly how I would have. I’m going to disagree with you on this bout.
First and foremost, I do agree that people need to start getting away from the mental game right now and focusing on the fight alone. I’ve heard a lot of people picking Wanderlei because Rampage is “too busy with legal stuff” to train correctly. I disagree with that.
Here’s where I see this fight going:
1.) Wanderlei will be one of the best cardio machines at Light Heavyweight when he comes into this fight. Nearly all the bigger guys at Xtreme Couture have been training hypoxia and Wanderlei, as we saw in the Countdown show before his Liddell bout, has been a pioneer of it at the gym and in MMA.
2.) Rampage’s patient style is something that seems to be “the thing” nowadays in MMA. Forrest was rather patient and ranged Rampage to death, which worked well. Machida is very much a range fighter with great elusive footwork. It’s becoming the norm. While I believe it works in many instances, I don’t think Rampage has the elusiveness of Machida, and I don’t think he’s going to be able to standoff against a charging Wanderlei Silva, much like their first two bouts.
If we recall, Rampage tried to set himself up, stand, and throw against Silva in both bouts, but was run over.
3.) The reach advantage? Rampage had a reach advantage in both fights, and was still crushed. The problem isn’t neutralizing Silva’s punching so much as it is neutralizing his ability to power through the reach, slug you, stun you, clinch you, and kill you. Wanderlei is going to look for a way to do that, not range fight Rampage who, yes, has the reach advantage.
4.) Strength and power is a huge factor I think. Rampage is definitely a beast when he’s training for a fight, but Wanderlei looks reborn. He looks amazingly fit and powerful, and his power against Jardine was unreal. Not only did he crush Jardine, but at one point, he literally held down Jardine with ONE HAND and pounded him to a win.
I think Rampage can win this bout using his range, but he will need to be much quicker and elusive than I think he can actually be. Yes, Wanderlei’s wildness can be a detractor to picking him, but that’s exactly why I believe he will win. He’s unpredictable whether you believe he’s the old Wanderlei again or a more patient new Wanderlei. Everyone picking Rampage has been saying the old Wanderlei will never return, but I think we may see a small rebirth in the next two years. His shape is outstanding, strength is phenomenal, and he still packs a monster punch and has the aggressiveness of a pitbull. Adding in his newfound cardio and conditioning allows him to eat some blows. I think he can pull off the win here.
Of course, I’m biased as I want to see the Old Wanderlei Silva crush some fools once again! WAR SILVA!
Editor-in-chief of MMA-Analyst.com
If Jackson can keep Silva in check and turn it into a boxing match, he will tear Silva apart. Jackson’s boxing in 2008 is a lot cleaner than Silva’s; he has more powerful punches
Really?
I’m a bit hesitant to believe this as well. After all, where is the proof that Rampage is more powerful than Silva? Silva easily controlled Rampage in the clinch back in PRIDE in both bouts, albeit Rampage was doing well in their second fight.
I think Wanderlei looks to be even more powerful nowadays. He’s looking great for this fight. Should be interesting to see.
Editor-in-chief of MMA-Analyst.com
by Leland Roling on Dec 22, 2008 10:15 AM EST up reply actions
While this could be true that he’s got more powerful punches, I don’t know how you’re measuring that objectively.
I do know that there’s been more than 1 fighter say that Silva hits harder than anyone they’ve fought (Tito, I believe Chuck as well), not to mention we’ve seen Silva throw down with Jackson before and when Silva landed his leather the end of the fight was soon to follow. Obviously there’s something to be said for the difference in being able to throw hard punches and being able to land hard punches, but in terms of pure power in punches I was always of the idea that Silva was the man at 205.
I think it’s more profound that Rampage was unable to release himself from Silva’s clinch in both those bouts, and that was back in PRIDE. Nowadays, fans can make the case the Rampage is more powerful in the striking due to his newfound training, but I’ve see Silva recently, and he looks even more powerful IMO.
Editor-in-chief of MMA-Analyst.com
by Leland Roling on Dec 22, 2008 11:06 AM EST up reply actions
I don’t understand how you Wand lovers are using a 60 second fight with Jardine to say “OMG WAND IS BACK!!!!!!!”
Remember, Houston Alexander did the same thing to Jardine. He just does not do well with that sort of style and power.
People thought his “killer instinct” was gone…he showed that when the blood is in the water he can still be the ferocious killer he was during his PRIDE domination.
And finishing Jardine is pretty impressive work, I don’t get the amount of hate/under-rating Jardine gets from everyone.
I imagine the beating he took at the hands of Houston Alexander has something to do with it. That and his whole “I look like a lawn gnome” deal.
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by Richard Wade on Dec 22, 2008 11:25 AM EST up reply actions
For me it all comes to this:
Rampage is entering this fight after switching training camps, after being involved in a criminal case, and after having a mental breakdown. His new camp is not very noteworthy and he has only been there a few mths. He is fighting a guy that not only beat him the first 2 times, but destroyed him. i don’t care how much Rampage’s striking has improved, the mental factor here is going to be too much for him to overcome. I would take Wandy in this fight 11 times out of 10.
This fight is a case of bad timing for Rampage. He’s going in against a guy that has his number and he’s taking a fight when he should be trying to get his head straight. No way his head is clear in that little time.
Wandy is at a better camp, mentally more healthy, and coming off a huge KO of a top 10 LHW.
Wandy by TKO in the 1st.
Why wouldn't Rampage want to take him down?
It worked well for Chuck Liddell and Dan Henderson.
Silva has always had sub-par takedown defense and his Jiu Jitsu is even worse. A standup fight for Rampage would actually be more difficult than the alternative. Rampage can be suckered into a brawl as we have seen in the Dan Henderson bout and that is what Silva wants.
I think a ground and pound victory is Rampage’s easiest route and he IS training at Wolf’s Lair after all.
thats what im saying, of course if Rampage throws a solid punch and it connect in the right spot there is no doubt he can KO Wand but why take the chance with the guy whos been known to be the better striker? if he tries to brawl with one of the best brawlers in the game (who happens to have a good chin and even better recovery) as apposed to take him down and try for a GnP finish or a decision, then hes dumb and will probably get knocked out…. again.
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