Frank Mir's Best Chance of Victory

by Zack Gobie on Dec 21, 2008 3:37 PM EST Comment 27 comments

Frank-mir-2_medium Promoted from the FanPosts by Kid Nate.

It's no secret that Antonio Rodrigo "Minotauro" Nogueira is a tough opponent to work a game-plan around. He's never been KO'ed, he's never been submitted, to my knowledge he's never even been mounted either. How do you prepare for a guy like that? Frank Mir has never been known for his striking abilities, so how does Frank hope to topple one of the best Heavyweight fighters of all time?

To me, his best hope is probably the least entertaining one: go for the take down and hold him down. Back in 2003, Ricco Rodriguez was able to take Nogueira down, avoid submissions, and keep top position throughout the 20-minute fight. Granted, Ricco lost that fight, but IMO that was a bullshit decision. But still, that fight and the Fedor fights give a blueprint on how to beat Nogueira.

Noguiera himself said that he would give the wrestling edge to Mir. If I was Frank Mir, I would be devoting most of my training camp to working on take downs and cardio to be able to last for five rounds. Some will say that Mir's cardio may not last that long, and they could be right. But Ricco was able to last 20 minutes against him, so is it that much of a stretch to say that Frank can do it for 5 more?

I remember hearing an old phrase that "Minotauro doesn't lose fights, he just runs out of time." That's exactly what Mir needs to do Nogueira. He can't give Nog a chance to get into any type of rhyme. If Mir wants to win this fight, he needs to set the tempo at his pace and be the "ring general", if you will. He can't hang back and play counter-fighter or Nogueria will eat him alive.

To put a local spin on it, Hall of Fame Football coach Joe Gibbs always loved to run ball when he coached the Redskins. His reasoning was that since running the ball eats up more of the clock, that time his offense spends running the clock means less time for the other team to get any offense in. Mir should use the same philosophy against Nogueira.

Mir has excellent Jiu-Jitsu and I am confident he will be able to at least avoid Nog's submissions and maybe even attempt to pass his guard should to opportunity arise. So while it may not make for the most exciting of fights, if Frank Mir has put the hours in the gym he needs to, he at least has a viable game plan to be able to come away the victor in this fight. Whoever this fight goes to though, I expect it to be a long and ugly fight. Unless of course Mir gasses out after the first round which is a possibility.

The FanPosts are solely the subjective opinions of Bloody Elbow readers and do not necessarily reflect the views of Bloody Elbow editors or staff.

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His best chance is if Nog falls and hits his head on the scale at weigh ins.

Honestly though best chance would be a lucky KO or a fluke leg lock type of sub.

by lbk on Dec 21, 2008 3:42 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

That’s a lot of luck..

by Johann on Dec 21, 2008 8:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm reccing this excellent analysis

The Fedor-Nog fights are basically tutorials on how to defeat the guard. Mir himself has said he’s not arrogant enough to think he’ll be the first person to submit or finish Nog, so he’s got to be planning on a) having more effective striking and b) maintaining position for the majority of the fight.

That being said… I’ve seen surer locks in my day than Nog over Mir. I wouldn’t drop dead from shock if Frank pulled this off.

by subo on Dec 21, 2008 4:28 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Mir just needs to look at TUF: Efrain taking down Nover for 15 minutes, using his BJJ to avoid subs, and just being an oppurturnist in terms of GnP, now obviously Nog isn't as dangerous a striker as Nover, but the comparison is still apt.

Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.

by P Brady on Dec 21, 2008 4:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

And Nover’s BJJ isn’t within shouting distance of Nog’s.

Still apt, though.

by subo on Dec 21, 2008 4:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Nor is Escudero’s within shouting distance of Mir’s.

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by Richard Wade on Dec 21, 2008 5:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Nog is a vastly more dangerous striker than Phillipe freakin’ Nover. Such a comparison is too ridiculous to even fathom.

by George Lucas on Dec 21, 2008 4:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Nog has 1 KO in his career.

Nog is a lesser knockout threat to Mir than Nover was a knockout threat to efrain, which was my point.

Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.

by P Brady on Dec 21, 2008 7:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Just because you have no KO's doesn't mean you aren't dangerous

Nover was striking wildly which opened him up for the takedown. Nog is a lot more technical than that. Proper technique can defeat power with a good game plan. To see an example of this difference please watch Forest versus Rampage again.

by zeroword on Dec 22, 2008 1:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

However...

Nog is so flat footed. That said, I think the ground is not the way to go. Leg kicks are. He doesn’t have to fear the knockout from the overhand right.

by zeroword on Dec 22, 2008 1:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe try watching fights instead of comparing Fight Finder records. Nog’s knockout threat is maybe overshadowed by his submission skills and his endurance but that doesn’t mean he can’t outbox almost anyone in his division.

Nover’s striking is barely on the level of Stout or maybe Emerson.

by George Lucas on Dec 23, 2008 2:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

and b) maintaining position for the majority of the fight.

This is exactly what Fedor didn’t worry about when fighting Nog. He defeated Nog’s guard because he was able to constantly attack without giving much thought to obtaining and keeping a dominant position. It helped that Fedor hits ridiculously hard and has a deep gas tank.

by George Lucas on Dec 21, 2008 5:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

boring, yet interesting strategy if he chose to use it.

by dbcb on Dec 21, 2008 6:50 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Mir would have no trouble smothering Minotauro if he shows up looking the same way as he did with Brandon Vera…

Then again, I’d think that would be called suffocating, wouldn’t it?

Joking aside, I can’t see Mir smothering Nogueira for 25 minutes. Mir can’t give him an INCH, or Nogueira will make it to his feet. So, if Mir tries to lay in his guard the whole time, throwing basically no punches or elbows, not passing guard (I’m not saying he won’t try, but I don’t think he could even get half-guard), they will constantly be stood up. I can’t see Mir putting Nogueira on his back more than five times, that would take a Sean Sherk gas tank.

by Flesh Into Gear on Dec 21, 2008 7:39 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

"Frank Mir's Best Chance of Victory"

Divine intervention.

by Brett Jones on Dec 21, 2008 9:30 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I don't even think God can help Frank Mir...

Frank Mir will learn a lesson in humility and he’ll become an even better fighter and less arrogant person.

by Gunslinger20 on Dec 21, 2008 11:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Frank Mir's Best Chance of Victory....

Hmmm… in all seriousness, he catches Nog and the ref prematurely stops the fight and there is a huge uproar about it and people will piss and moan about the outcome for months on end until a rematch happens or we get to see Couture vs Nog.

Frank Mir’s real best chance at victory…. Antonio “Rogerio” Nogueira drugs his brother and takes his place for some Scooby Doo like jealousy reasons.

by Gunslinger20 on Dec 21, 2008 11:34 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

This analysis makes a lot of sense to me – rec’d. I do think that Mir may lack the physical tools, most notably the cardio, to pull it off though.

by tomh on Dec 22, 2008 6:41 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

rec`d.

I`m not to sure Mir has the stamina to pull it off, but I think he should try. And since Minotaoro is so comfortable on j´his back, will it really take that much energy to take him down. My suggestion i that Mir makes a gameplan like the one above, but gambles and basically gives one round away (say round nr 3 for instance) where he does a Starnes and conserves energy. It may be even less pretty, but he doesn`t actually have to win all 5 rounds you know..

And on Minotaoro`s striking?I think he looked sloooow against Sylvia. Did he hit Timmeh with one clean punch? And just how many jabs did Timmeh tag Minotaoro with. My guess is “a lot”.

"They called him the axe-murderer because he was murdering chumps. They should have been calling him the chump-murderer..." Rampage Jackson (commentating on the fighting abilities of Wanderlei "F#ck Chuck" Silva.)

by BlueberryMuffin on Dec 22, 2008 6:58 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I agree with this EXCEPT.....

In a straight up positional battle, Mir could potentially win this fight. The odds of him doing it for 25 minutes are slim to none. And the odds of him doing this and keeping busy enough to not get stood up are almost nill. You have to remember, Japanese officiating and american officiating are very very different at times. Mazzagati or Yamasaki or livigne will not put up with long bouts of Mir stalling on top, especially it Nog is making sub attempts from the bottom. This fight will continually get stood up if this strategy is inacted and that is where Mir loses the fight.

Same fight and strategy in Japan, Mir might have a shot. In Las Vegas, its Nog vs Lesnar for the undisputed title.

by Nick Travaglini on Dec 22, 2008 8:46 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Wow...with the crowd so opposed to Mir,

it makes me want to root for him. Not that I dislike Nog in any way.

by Razreshat on Dec 22, 2008 9:00 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Agreed...

I think Mir wins this if they go to decision due to the fact that Mir is a bit more powerful than Nogueira and Nogueira likes to remain passive until you make a mistake. If Mir can simply avoid submission and throw some choice elbows every once in awhile, he’ll ride himself to a boring decision.

The biggest problem I see is that these guys are vastly different in the standup game. Mir is terrible, absolutely abyssmal in the striking department, whereas Nogueira has many, many hours of boxing training under his belt, Cuban National team training, etc. His boxing is good enough to provide damaging blows, points, and potentially some stunning effects. That’s where I see this fight going to Nogueira.

The only problem I see for Nog is that he has become a bit lackadasical at times in the cage with his hands up, Herring caught him with the kick which Nogueira is almost always prepared for.

Should be a decent fight, definitely one to watch.

Editor-in-chief of MMA-Analyst.com

by Leland Roling on Dec 22, 2008 9:38 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

His best chance is definately poison

We all know blunt force trauma doesn’t work.

by skwirrl on Dec 22, 2008 3:34 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

agreed …food poisoning and subsequent in-ring diarrhea.

we call that getting sylvia’d

honestly…i think bad reffing could give mir the win. nog can be stunned, just not put to sleep. if he gets knocked down like against herring and then pounced on i could see a tko if the ref stops it early.

the guy that reffed kimbo v collosus would do it. what’s his name again…he sucks bad. wasnt he the same guy that made nelson v arlovski stand up when nelson had side mount and was going for a kimura.

by Headkick on Dec 27, 2008 10:52 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

So Nog has never been submitted...

Points to how hard this fight is gonna be for Mir. Mir’s best chance: a submission off his back. Of course maybe you’re right, we are about to witness a new Frank Mir. But I doubt it.

That's just a big son of a bitch -- that's all there is to it.

by mma_dude on Dec 22, 2008 10:36 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

This could be the most technical heavyweight battle of all time

From a groundfighting perspective. From what i’ve seen, neither of them is great standing. I’ve read that Nog trains a lot of straight up boxing; that may give him an edge there. But I don’t want to see a slugfest from these two. I’m hoping for a BJJ showdown.

by Cmad77 on Dec 23, 2008 6:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs