Ten Predictions for 2009
by Michael Rome on Dec 2, 2008 9:16 AM EST
in MMA News
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Everyone is playing the predictions game, so here are a few that I think are locks by the end of next year. Since there will be ten thousand posts like this around the blogs at the end of this month, I'll just do it now.
1. Brock Lesnar loses the title: As much as Brock has impressed me, I just don't see how he gets by Nogueira. Nog has made a career of surviving beatings and clawing his way to submission victory. If Brock beats Nog, there are still no easy fights after that, as everyone will be gunning to take him down.
2. Chuck Liddell retires for the first time: Whether or not they change their mind on Chuck fighting Randy, I believe the end is in sight for Chuck Liddell. I say first time because I have no doubt he'll be back for a big return at least once.
3. Affliction goes under: Anyone who reads my work regularly knew this was coming. They are set up to fail, I have my doubts if we'll ever see a third show. Hopefully I'm wrong about this.
4. GSP vs. Anderson Silva headlines UFC 100: I guess you could see this as a prediction for GSP-BJ Penn, but I believe the two men will collide in July for UFC 100.
5. Tito Ortiz returns to the UFC: I think this is virtually a lock. He has no other options and the parties talk all the time.
6. UFC PPV business starts slow and ends hot: The first few PPV shows of 2009 are bare looking. 93 with Henderson and Franklin won't do well, they have nobody for Silva right now for 95, and outside of Hughes-Serra I don't know what they can headline Columbus with. Spring and Summer will then heat up bigtime leading into UFC 100.
7. Randy Couture will not retire: I don't believe he is done, and I don't believe he wants to stop fighting. You can see it in someone's eyes when they just can't get enough of competition, and I think that is where Randy is.
8. Gina Carano will become the top draw of the WEC: She sounds happy with the idea of fighting there, and seeing as Faber is apparently not a draw at all on his own, I think Gina will emerge as the star there. But is it a waste of a superstar on a network that doesn't have the penetration to make stars?
9. Matt Hughes will retire: Not really a bold pick here, I know. But I don't see him wanting to fight as a gatekeeper at 170 even if he manages to beat Serra.
10. The UFC will be in Madison Square Garden: Bob Reilly be damned, this is going to happen. The current battle is greed vs. stupidity, and unlike some I have no doubt that greed ought to and will win.
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I Agree
with #3 being a lock and if that happens maybe Fedor vs. Couture headlines UFC 100.I couldn’t agree more about Chuck retiring and eventually coming back for at least 1 fight.As far as numbers #5 and #8 I wouldn’t rule out Strikeforce being a home for Tito or Gina especially if they start having live shows on NBC,and Hughes at #9 is all up to the Serra fight if he loses I think he retires if he wins I think he’ll be around until at least the end of 2009.
Agreed on all points
Especially #1, 2, 3, 5, 8
Did the health care b!tch ever put her two cents in about MMA in New York? That’s the only one I can’t see happening.
Sleeper pick….Carwin ends up becoming a definite contender….I’d love to see him and Brock go toe to toe.
The Carwin prediction is already a guarantee. By the winter of 2009, Shane Carwin versus Brock Lesnar will be a fight for the Heavyweight Championship. And Carwin will win.
"A lie gets halfway around the world before the truth has a chance to get its pants on." - Sir Winston Churchill
People
obviously do care about Tito he’s talked about all the time on the internet and been part of the UFC events with the biggest PPV buys.I disagree with ChillMike on one of his points that the hardcore fans don’t,because that’s when he made his mark as UFC champion before the TUF era brought in a whole new group of fans.I do agree however he has a large group that watches hoping he gets his ass beat.I assume for the most part these are fans of Dana White.Tito will always draw good numbers on TV or PPV because people either love the guy or love to hate the guy.I haven’t met too many who are ambivalent.
#4
I agree on all except #4. If GSP beats Penn, he will be facing Alves around 97 or 98. I don’t see GSP being ready for Silva at 100.
i think brock can win against nog.. If he lands the big shot, i dont think nog could recover from that. But if he doesnt land that, i think he gets subbed. especially if he decides to take him down. in my opinion, the only time brock should go to the ground is if he drops nog as hard as herring or randy, defend a few subs while Gnp-ing away. not the hammer fists but elbows. He needs to learn how to use those massive elbows of his for gnp.
PS
i said ‘can’. not ‘will’.. hehe.. :)
http://weoweoweo.deviantart.com/
i think before we see alves vs gsp we need to see thiago alves vs diego sanchez..that still needs to happen and it will determine the number one contender.
by DeMo Spinning back fist on Dec 2, 2008 2:32 AM EST reply actions
before his infection he was pretty close to a title shot…
by DeMo Spinning back fist on Dec 3, 2008 2:33 AM EST up reply actions
I don’t see the need for Alves vs. Sanchez. Sanchez would get owned. If Kos couldn’t get Alves down, how would Sanchez do it? Alves has already proven he’s worthy of a titleshot by totally destroying his last 3 opponents, all of whom were top 10, and with the possible exception of Karo Parisyan, still are.
kos took the fight in less then 2 weeks notice, alves didnt make weight against huges, and sanchez would have a faster pace then kos did.
by DeMo Spinning back fist on Dec 3, 2008 2:35 AM EST up reply actions
Before everyone gets carried away about GSP vs Silva, the market for that fight will disappear after BJ beats St Pierres.
After BJ beats Thiago, he’ll get a shot at Anderson.
There’s a recent interview where BJ talks about Zuffa limiting him in what weights he can fight at.
I wish I could find it.
Dana has flatly stated that BJ won't get the opportunity
to fight Silva even if he wins.
by dualdiagnosis on Dec 2, 2008 2:56 PM EST up reply actions
It was a prediction, and a solid one.
BJ won’t beat GSP, and he wouldn’t beat Alves either. He should actually be fighting Alves first for the right to a shot at GSP.
Penn will never fight Anderson. After Penn loses to GSP, he’ll stay at 155, because he won’t want to have to work his way back up the WW ladder.
#1
Brock actually fairs pretty well against nog, there is no way in hell Brock will even attempt to take down nog, And theres no way nog is going to take down Brock, I see a UD coming for Brock. Think about it, nog’s been looking kind of slow in the stand up, Brock’s stand up is mproving, and he has serious power. If he knock Nog down, i wouldn’t be surprised if he did not even attempt to hammer fist , or donkey kong, his way to a tko. I know nog’s cardio is amazing, Brock’s is not, but I just don’t see that fight ending up on the ground at all.
Flame all you want, but really think about it.
Minotauro is a very solid boxer; aside from the knockdown in the first he boxed Herring around the cage. When he adjusted to Sylvia’s range he gained more than parity standing. He trains regularly with the Cuban national boxing team and also with Silva, his brother and Machida, all very high level strikers.
If he prepares for Lesnars reach and move a lot better then Couture who, to me, was very sluggish standing. That said it is difficult to find sparing partners with arms that out of proportion to their height. That’s why Lesnar can use his reach so well, he is punching straight and not down giving him that extra few inches.
My prediction is Lesner tiring in the 3rd and Nogueira pulling ahead or Lesner getting a decent smack and reverting back to his wrestling roots and aggression only to be submitted.
I actually think Lesners best chance is to clinch a lot and aim to take Nogueira down only when he is fairly sure to end up in his half guard or side control. There he can use his base to avoid sweeps and ending up in Nogueiras guard. If Lesnar is in top position on his terms he should avoid submissions, if, and that’s a substantial if, he stays controlled. Basically the old Sean Sherk special.
Those are great points. Nogs’ striking is great, his cardio is amazing. That true if Brock can take him down and get side control, he should fare pretty well, but if he gets caught in Nogs’ guard I think it will be over fast. lol at the old Sherk special, If it makes it to the third, or fourth, and if brock can get side control, i can see him L’n’p for 1 or 2 more rounds. I personally want to see him tapped. If he loses, I say let him work his way back up, keep learning, and then , watch out.
Nog has good technical boxing, but he doesn’t really have any power, and he is starting to slow down. Remember, Brock has knocked down every single opponent he has faced in the UFC.
Also in reply to unphreezing, Brock’s cardio is probably as good if not better than Nog’s. He was in no way gassing at all in the Couture fight. He was pacing himself and using his size advantage to tire Couture out while not expending any real energy.
Pretty safe
All these predictions are all pretty safe ones. The only one you went out on a limb on was GSP vs Anderson at UFC 100. I think BJ is gonna win myself, but It is a 50/50 fight for sure.
The rest of these are close to 100% going to happen.
Well I’m not sure if WEC can draw casual fans, or at least very well. I think if they aired on Spike or some other basic cable channel they would have a chance, but VS? It’s two tiers up and is pretty obscure. It’s mostly golf and bull riding. It’s not a channel that a casual person would take much interest in.
Also, they schedule these things for mid week, which cuts down on the potential to friends to watch. I think the biggest problem the WEC has is that they haven’t made themselves as accessible to the general public. There’s a reason why the UFC is using Spike to air its free shows even though they have a standing relationship with VS, and its because nobody watches VS.
If WEC wants to develop big draws, its got to get a better TV deal.
Oh please, like Spike is a better outlet than the channel with the Tour De France and NHL. The reason the WEC exists was to prevent Versus from going with the IFL and next to nothing but. Spike has the cable rights to the UFC; nothing Versus can do there.
The problem with the WEC is that aside from the recently KOed Faber, no one cares about the fighters nor do they need to. It draws IFL ratings because it has, in essence, IFL level fights. No one believes Jamie Varner is a real world champion. Hell, no one believes he’s even a top 20 lightweight.
I disagree, the problem with the WEC is versus itself. Are you saying that the WEC wouldn’t never get more popular than it is now if it was on a higher profile more prolific tv station? I’m not sure why you want to undermine Faber and Torres, both are IMO at the top of the foodchain for their weight classes.
The biggest problem with the WEC is that getting eyes on their product is difficult. I have to beg my regional sports TV channel to host the fights because versus isn’t even available here, on any source (satellite, cable, OTA, anything)
I am. The problem with the WEC is the WEC. No one buys into any of the champions except the littler guys, and even then few care. Who is aching to see Mike Brown? His highest profile fight that was televised previously was either on a PPV about 50,000 people ordered or on a TV show with a .1 rating.
id like to see how mike brown does.. as long as he isnt the main event.. its still torres and faber who headlines. So having a featherweight title fight along with torres and or faber is a good card for me. and if they indeed get carano then the WEC would sell for sure.
http://weoweoweo.deviantart.com/
by Anton Tabuena on Dec 2, 2008 10:42 AM EST up reply actions
And I call BS that its “not available anywhere” if you’re in the US on satellite. Its part of Dish Network and DirecTV’s packages.
It’s not part of the regular package. It’s a premium package (the top package from Dish) and you’d have to pay $20 more per month just to get Versus. That’s more than HBO by itself. I don’t have it and I’m sure most people don’t as well.
Or go get the $35 a month package from DirecTV. All of the people that tuned in for Faber/Pulver couldn’t be bothered to ever return, it seems, which tells me that the problems are bigger than just the TV outlet.
That’s only for new customers. After 12 months, it increases an additional $20 which is the same as Dish.
You’re also not explaining why it is their ratings are basically a third of what the last Faber fight was the next time he came around. Blaming the network is easy, though its not as if Zuffa was utterly unaware as to what Versus’ market penetration was. The ratings “suck” (they aren’t really that awful, to be honest) for the same reason the IFL’s ratings went from 1.0s to the toilet: no one cares to see anyone they have fight.
The Torres fight will be interesting. I’m guessing .5?
The real question is why they gained momentum all last year and then had such a sudden and huge dropoff.
I don’t think it will do that. None of the support fights are with guys anyone in this country or really any country has heard of. I would bet closer to .3/.4. I just looked and you can get a pair of tickets in the 4th row. Not the best sign of this thing being a major success.
I can tell you why pretty easily:
-Cancelling the next Faber fight: The claim is that it was a sellout, but watching on TV it didn’t look that way. There were plenty of tickets available prior to the “hurricane” cancellation too. While I’m sure they want to tout their successes only, putting that card for as many weeks as it was on ice killed their momentum.
-Blew their wad promoting a one sided fight. Pulver/Faber was no classic, and the guy most people recognized basically went out looking like nothing more than an opponent. You know what? Most MMA fans have never seen Jens Pulver win.
-6 weight classes, 4 of them automatically inferior. No one was going to believe that Doug Marshall was a legitimate claimant to the world title.
Just looking at how they drew live, you can also make the case that they never should have moved the organization out to Vegas. They were getting crowds of 3000-5000 in Cali. Now they sell half of The Joint.
White, middle class America does not care about guys under 155lbs fighting in any sport unless your name is Oscar De La Hoya.
Boxing gets away with having draws at the smaller weights because of the strong Latino and Phillipino fanbase…as of yet, these people have not proven to be part of the larger “ultimate fighting” fanbase.
Mir will upset Nog
Why does everyone think Nog will go through Mir?? I think this will be an upset…Nog hasn’t looked that good as of late – he went to a freakin decision with Heath.
Because....
Mir has NEVER looked that good outside of snapping Sylvia’s arm. He’s one of the most trumped up fighters Zuffa ever carted out there, in hopes of igniting interest in the “hometown Vegas boy”.
His cardio was always suspect and he’s look positively HORRIBLE since his return from the motorcycle accident. He got demolished by Vera and Pe de freaking Pano, gift decision against Dan Cristensen, he looked less than stellar against Wes Sims of all people and then pulled off a miracle sub against a positively green rookie in Lesnar. He’s going to get absolutely tooled by Nog – I doubt he’ll be subbed, because Nog in my recollection hasn’t subbed someone of Mir’s BJJ skills but I definitely believe Nog will pick him apart standing and take him into deep waters where he’ll TKO him.
Nog, outside of the signature “Herring knee-kick” landing, absolutely dominated Herring in a much more convincing fashion that Lesnar did and he proved his mettle under fire against Sylvia…the type of fortitude that’s all but foreign to Mir.
Regarding Mir (vs Nog) ...
“He’s one of the most trumped up fighters Zuffa ever carted out there”
“He’s going to get absolutely tooled by Nog”
“I definitely believe Nog will pick him apart standing and take him into deep waters where he’ll TKO him”
Guess more of you should have listened to me now that we saw that Mir absolutely DOMINATED Nog.
Save the excuses…and I don’t like to say this – but I told ya so….
Thanks
You Say
Nogueira went to a decision with Heath and (won by the way) as if it’s a bad thing.Heath Herring is a good fighter, not a top ten 10 guy for sure,but only the top fighters can finish him as Nogueira has before.Lesnar couldn’t finish him and he had him hurt badly.Guys as tough as Herring can take a lot.I’m sure people thought Kongo was going to take him out too,but that didn’t happen either.
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