Phillipe Nover and Vinicius Magalhaes: Boom or Bust Prospects?
by "Mr. NC-17" on Dec 14, 2008 12:52 PM EST
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We have all seen what winning the Ultimate Fighter can do for a fighter. It has produced 2 champions (Serra, Forrest), has seen 3 winners get a shot to fight for the title (Stevenson, Cote and Evans) it helps a fighter get huge name power (Bisping, Sanchez, Diaz) and it just proves that if you win the Ultimate Fighter more than good things are bound for you if you put it together.
The combined records of the Ultimate Fighter winners since the clinched the championship of The Ultimate fighter is an outstanding 31-14 with Travis Lutter being the only TUF winner not to win a bout. Every fighter minus Matt Serra and Mac Danzig (1-1) has a fighting record better than .500.
But let's take a look at the runner-ups to the crown of The Ultimate Fighter:
- Season 1 Combined W/L Record: 14-3 (Bonnar/Kenflo)
- Season 2 Combined W/L Record: 3-5 (Cummo/Imes)
- Season 3 Combined W/L Record: 3-5 (Herman/Hayes)
- Season4 Combined W/L Record: 9-4 (Cote/Lytle)
- Season 5 W/L Record: 2-1 (Man Gam)
- Season 6 W/L Record: 0-1 (Speer)
- Season 7 W/L Record: 1-0 (CB)
If you take out the W/L of season 1 (14-3) and the W/L of Season 4 (9-4) you get acombined record from seasons 2,3,5,6 and 7 of 9-12. Also take a look at Brad Imes, Josh Haynes and Tommy Speer. All of them are 100% out of the UFC and Tommy Speer has since retired from the sport to work on his farm.
Now, with the Ultimate Fighter 8 show and winners in the wrap, that leaves Nover and Magalhaes in the "Boom or Bust" type of situation.
Phillipe Nover might just be the best UFC prospect right now. His striking is dangerous and his ground is a black belt caliber. The sky is too short of the limit for Phillipe Nover. But how will he rebound from his lost? Will he be able to go back to the way he was in the house and defeat fighters with his incredible knockout power? Or will he show that his ability to stuff a takedown hurt him in a long run, with a division that is stacked with some of the best 155 wrestlers in the world.
Vinny Magalahes is blessed with incredible brazilian jiu-jitsu. His BJJ is bar none a top 10 in the world, but can it translate in the UFC? You can be a fantastic BJJ grappler, but that does not mean you are a certified MMA fighter. As seen last night, Vinny's jaw is a huge question, his record now stands at 3-3 (.500) overall. Vinny can be his worst enemy as most fighters, because when he decides he wants to stand and band instead of taking the fight to his world, will Vinny's extreme cockiness get the best of him?
So, after TUF 8 has finished up, will Phillipe Nover be the next KenFlo and just show why he deserves to be in the UFC and why he was the man that was feared in the house? Or will he turn out to be a 0-2, 0-3, 1-3 and done with the UFC faster than you can say Tommy Speer?
What about Vinny? He has the ground game to make it all the way, but the fight always starts standing, and the level of fighters in possibly the most stacked division is so deep, can Vinny tread through the waters and establish a name for himself, or will he become the Next Brad Imes or Josh Haynes, and quickly find yourself looking for a fight in a smaller organization.
So the question I leave to you guys is, will these guys be a boom or bust prospect? The question lies within.
The FanPosts are solely the subjective opinions of Bloody Elbow readers and do not necessarily reflect the views of Bloody Elbow editors or staff.
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I agree 100%. I actually just got done looking at Vinny’s fighting stats, and he has lost to George Bush and Raphael Davis. George Bush has had 1 main fight and that was against Ricco Rod at Yamma Pit Fighting 1 and he lost that fight. I’m not sold on Vinny, and when people were saying he was going to win by Submission, I wondered how. I really did not believe he could take Bader down, I knew Bader would not take him down, and I figured the fight was standing that Bader had the better boxing of the two, because Vinny exposed his chin and head a lot, and when it comes to Power, Bader might be up there in the top 10 Light Heavyweights of Pure power. That guy is strong.
I really think Ryan Bader is going to accomplish something huge in the UFC. Rashad Evans is really the onl powerhouse wrestler that is in the top 10 of the light heavyweight division. Most 205’ers are stand up fighters with Average to Good BJJ. I think Bader will be able to wrestle his way up to the top.
by "Mr. NC-17" on Dec 14, 2008 11:12 AM EST up reply actions
Nover = Boom
Vinny = Big time bust.
I agree. I can see Nover tweaking his game and going on to be a force. Vinny not so much. I mean, c’mon didn’t they have 6 months after the show and Vinnys standup looked EXACTLY the same. Bader looked better and Junie definately looked better.
by xFenixKnightx on Dec 14, 2008 1:10 PM EST up reply actions
Nover-This guy has heart and smarts. He will absolutely improve and I think this loss will be a catalyst to future success.
Vinny-This guy has size and bjj. I just don’t see the heart from him. he doesn’t like to be hit and seems to want to rely solely on his ability to catch a sub. Of course training at Coutures may change this.
Bader- Natural striking power, great wrestling, explosive strength/athleticism. If he adds to his arsenal, i could see him being a contender someday, and that is not just based off of last night.
Efrain-Has all the skills, heart and smarts you could want. Very patient and determined. It will be interesting to see how he does against some of the bigger UFC lws.
Of the 4 finalists, I say that Vinny clearly has the most questions around him. Great BJJ guys have often not been able to translate well into mma, so we will wait and see where he winds up.
Eliot Marshall: Bader won. Like I said in the episode, I'm not going to make any excuses. It's my job to be able to deal with when somebody's doing that. It's not his job to change up his tactics.
http://eliotmarshall.com/
Who I would match these guys up against next
I agree with most all of the above. This is what I figure we will see matchup-wise in the coming months.
Nover vs Dale Hartt- 2 guys who are entry level and just fought this week. Both should be ready to go at the same time, come Feb or March show. This will be the start of the Nover push.
Efrain vs Dave Kaplan- Efrain has earned a layup first bout after the show. This will be excuse to bounce Kaplan out of the UFC and begin the Efrain “Roger Huerta-esque” push
Bader vs Houston Alexander- Houston is taylor made for Bader’s game. Yet he is still a bigger name than threat at this point. Bader beating Alexander gives him a push and a name on the resume.
Vinny vs Alessio Sakara – I know Sakara has dropped to 185. I don’t care, because he isn’t a threat there either. This would be a way to test Vinny against a smaller opponent. If Vinny can’t take a Sakara down then he has ABSOLUTELY no place in the UFC 205 lb division.
" Tell me something Steve, How does a guy from Puerto Rico loose a ball in the Sun? "
That could work except I don’t see the the UFC matching Efrain up with Dave Kaplan. Generally, once you graduate form TUF the winners get matched up with a lower level veteran not from the show, as if to say that they are above the level of their castmates upon winning. See Forrest v. Mahood, Evans v. Hoger, Diaz v. Assuncao.
The problem for Vinny is that he can’t take a punch, mentally or physically. Mentally speaking, he loses confidence, backs up, and otherwise starts to turtle up. Physically, he doesn’t have a soild enough chin to make up for the fact that he has sub-par striking defense. The two of those coupled together is quite the hurdle to overcome for any fighter.
I also wonder, like Brookhouse, if he can last for more than a round. All that weight might just gas him out.
Is Nover big enough for 155? Efrain looked much bigger than Nover. I wonder if Nover would be better off at 145 in the WEC.
Nover’s fought at 185 and 170. I think that 155 is a good fit for him.
by Rundownloser on Dec 14, 2008 1:01 PM EST up reply actions
Vinny has balls like raisins and the heart of the tinman. He just cant deal with being punched in the head. Unfortunately for him that tends to happen alot in the ufc. He will be better off sticking to pure grappling.
Phillip obviously needs work on his take down defense and wrestling. If he can manage to improve in those areas he will be at the top of the division one day.
3 winners get a shot to fight for the title (Stevenson, Cote and Evans)
Cote didn’t win – he was submitted by Lutter, who did technically get a shot at the title, even if he didn’t make weight.
Otherwise, good article. Spot-on analysis. They could both be booms if they dramatically improve their weak points, though Vinny does need much more work.
Ever tried. Ever failed. No matter. Try Again. Fail again. Fail better. -Samuel Beckett
by Scott C. Broussard on Dec 14, 2008 2:36 PM EST reply actions
I supose we’ll see what happens for both fighters. I thought Vinny fought a very smart fight against Krystoph in the semi finals on the other hand he let Bader dictate where the fight was going to go on the finale. Vinny is in danger of becoming a Gurgel like figure who has solid BJJ but gets his ass handed to him on his feet. This would be even more deplorable in his case as his stand up is weaker and his BJJ is better. He needs to work on developing a more well rounded MMA skillset and then work to use that to play to his strength BJJ.
As for Nover, I kind of thought the hype that Dana was throwing out there of the next George St. Pierre and the next Anderson Silva was over the top non-sense to begin with. Nover has good striking and BJJ, He looked pretty good against so-so competition in the house. On the other hand does anyone really think Nover could hang with the top fighters in the 155 division? If Efrain could control him that easily think of what fighters like Sean Sherk, Tyson Griffen, Gray Maynard and Frankie Edgar could do to him. Perhaps its unfair to put that sort of question to a young fighter fresh off TUF, but people have build this guy up beyond what I think he’s honestly capable of.
If you want a more accurate statement regarding Nover you might say he seems like a less experienced version of Kenny Florian. That’s been my thoughts on him since seeing him fight good BJJ and muia thai makes that comparison more apt to me than the GSP and Anderson Silva comparisons. Nover is going to have to refine his game though, as Efrain exposed a glaring hole in his repetoire.
Great post!
I was recently wondering the very same thing: How are the runner ups doing in the UFC? Thanks for putting it all together.
I think Nover will be huge. He’s extremely technically profficient. He’s marketable on numerous levels: the nurse-by-day angle, the Phillipino heritage, and the flashy striking. I guarantee he’s going to train take-down defense hard core when he gets back to the gym. I look forward to watching him improve.
Both busts. Vinny for obvious reasons, Nover because 155 is full of wrestlers and he’s not going to be able to improve wrestling defense enough from where it is in a short enough period of time.
You don’t think they’ll give Nover gimme fights until he can beef up his wrestling?
And while 155 has lots of wrestlers, it also has plenty of guys who rely on striking or submissions, as well. If Nover can just win fights against the latter while getting dominated by the former, he’ll last in the UFC long enough for his wrestling to improve.
by Michaelthebox on Dec 14, 2008 4:24 PM EST up reply actions
Nover did NOT look relaxed at the stare down – flickering towards the ceiling and generally avoiding Efrain, who looked real confident. I, for one, believe he lost his head. Sort of found it in the third, but that was that then. Efrain really impressed me, on the other hand. He’s got that “champion” quality. Damn. I’m a fan. War, Efrain!
Right now if you want to match Phillipe up against a decent opponent who has a win that will box Phillipe, I say you do a Phillipe Nover vs. Aaron Riley contest and you try to get that done by March.
Efrain has sensational wrestling, decent jitsu and decent stand up. Match him up against a stand up fighter without a ufc name (ala Nick Catone, Bill Mahood) somebody in which fits Efrain’s style. Me personally would love to see KJ Noons vs. Efrain, but that will never happen. But I see Efrain getting a feed me fight.
Ryan Bader, I saw somebody put Houston Alexander, I do like that idea, but I say go with Eric Schafer. Schafer has black belt level jitsu, but really no boxing. I think Bader is going to be a huge problem inside that 205 division considering there is not many powerhouse wrestlers. Plus I think Bader would just wear out Schafer.
Also for Vinny, I dunno what you do with him. Maybe you match him up with Houston Alexander. Your classic Grappler vs. Striker, then you can see what Vinny can do against a powerhouse fighter.
So my Suggestion Match-Ups:
Phillipe Nover vs. Aaron Riley
Efrain vs. Somebody outside the UFC with a possible 2-0, 3-0 record.
Ryan Bader vs. Eric Schafer
Vinny vs. Houston Alexander
and to throw this one in there
Junie Browning vs. Matt Wiman
I think Nover v. Riley and Bader v. Schafer are both possibilities. Alexander I think is finally going to get a gimme from the UFC in order to get him another highlight reel KO so when he gets matched up against a legit opponent again it will be a little more credible. With that said, I see Vinny going against a guy from the house like Eliot Marshall, who also has solid BJJ creds. That will basically say who stays and who goes. As for Efrain, he’ll defeinitely get somebody with a record better than 2-0 or 3-0. They’re going to give him somebody like a Mark Bocek or Alvin Robinson or someone – somebody with a little bit of UFC experience who he should be able to beat.
I think Browning v. Wiman won’t happen because Wiman is simply too good for Browning at this point and it would be a bit of a mismatch. Browning has a ton of potential and he’s not going to get tossed to the wolves in his first first. Maybe in his second or third, in order to give a boost to the guy who beats him, but not in his first post TUF fight.
by dropkick101 on Dec 14, 2008 11:56 PM EST up reply actions
Excellent post, agree with the majority that vinny just does’nt seem to have the chin or heart to be a success at the higher level.Maybe nover needs to join a more experienced camp att , jacksons or noguiera,just don’t think he’s getting the top level sparring at his camp.
Escudero has a bright future ,very young and should only improve from here on out, not sure whether bader can cut to 185 looks small for a light heavyweight considering the size of the ufc roster(griffin,rampage ,liddell,jardine etc) all cut considerable weight to make 205,just my 2 pennies worth.
AKA or Jacksons MMA woulod be perfect for Nover. He needs to join a wrestling heavy camp and he’ll learn TD defense soon enough.
Bader’s strength is wrestling so cutting muscle to hit 185 can only be bad for him. Rashad is smaller than Bader and he fights at light heavy. I disagree with fighters running to a lower weight division just to pick on smaller guys. Bader is a monster at 205 and within 3 years he should be up there with the elites.
I think Bader has all the potential upside in the world but I don’t know if I’d say he’ll be up there with the elites in three years. It could potentially happy since it seems the sky’s the limit for some of these guys but the light heavyweight division is monstrously deep. He has Forrest, Rampage, Machida, Shogun, Rashad, Wanderlei, Franklin, Bonnar, and Jardine to contend with. I’m going to stick with a wait and see approach because I don’t give anybody good chances when they’re entering the deep waters of the 205 class.
Look at all of those guys minus Rashad and Rampage. All of them are stand up fighters with decent jitsu or good jitsu. Im not saying Bader is the next second coming of Randy Couture, but with his fantastic wrestling skills, and strong knockout power (he must work on his technicality on his boxing), Bader is going to be a force to be messed with. Other than Matt Hamill, Ryan Bader has the best wrestling, and unlike Hamill, I think Bader will be able to adapt to a better boxing and jitsu defense game. Its going to be a treat to watch him evolve.
You definitely have a solid point there. Bader has a huge upside so it will definitely be fun to watch. If he has the expected success against the lower level guys, I’d like to see him matched up with Hamill in maybe three fights or so to see where he’s at. Also, I’d like to look at both his career and CB’s career two years from now and see how the two Arizona Combat Sports standouts compare in their respective divisions.
by dropkick101 on Dec 14, 2008 11:50 PM EST up reply actions
If by treat u mean lots of lay and pray on ppvs then ya I guess we will be in for quite a treat.
by Harry Triangle on Dec 14, 2008 11:56 PM EST up reply actions
Dude the guy has stopped all but one of his opponents and his finale win was a devastating KO where he barely took the guy down. Ever think that he wrestled the guys on TUF bc it was the safest way to get the W and get himself into the UFC. If he continues that trend while now in the organization I’d be very surprised.
by dropkick101 on Dec 15, 2008 12:15 AM EST up reply actions
Hey now. Let’s not let facts get in the way.
Bolts from the Blue // People who have time on their hands will inevitably waste the time of people who have work to do.
by Richard Wade on Dec 15, 2008 1:07 AM EST up reply actions
I wasn’t impressed by either but of the 2, would def think Nover has the bigger upside. Nover is def WAY overhyped though. There area number of mid tier 155’rs that would handle him at this point.
Vinny needs much work and think he should prob take some more smaller show fights. The guy was 2-2 coming in here. Not like he was 6-0 in smaler shows. He had losses to guys that will never sniff the UFC octagon.
I’m with those who say both bust. Overall, the talent level was appreciably low this season; better than TUF 6 and 7 sure, but the guys that are interesting are pretty early in their developments. I just can’t see Vinny being brought along slowly with his .500 pro record in the current environment. There’s so many good 205 lb fighters out there who have equally high or higher profiles, why waste time on him? Almost the entire top 20 in the division is in the UFC right now, and a lot of them are gonna sell more tickets than he will tomorrow, next week, or 3 years from now. I think he ends up fighting about twice more before ending up cut.
Nover is a slightly different story. Again, I look at the rankings and who the UFC already has under contract, and I don’t see where he fits in, or why they would spend so much time in particular building him instead of the guy who beat him. Maybe they should just rematch to kill time?
Also, not that its asked, but I think Bader is destined for a highlight reel KO loss sooner, not later, and that Escudero might be pretty good, but woefully unprepared for someone like Frankie Edgar, Tyson Griffin, or Clay Guida, and not likely to ascend beyond that level.
The thing is, the UFC will not feed him to somebody like a Edgar, Griffin, Guida or the top tier, not yet. Joe Stevenson has been the only real winner to face a tough as nails fighter in his first fight as TUF season champ. Efrain I believe can claw his way up to the top, he has good wrestling(I would not say great comparing him to Griffin, Guida, Sherk, Edgar, Maynard) decent stand up and decent submissions to make him a threat right now to be a top 14 lightweight.
Phillipe Nover on the other hand, has all the tools set, but the problem I saw with him on Saturday night was his sloppy boxing. I saw that he tried to make something out of nothing, and he would swing wildly awesome causing a takedown. His stuffing of the takedown was terrible. He was being taken down at will and seemingly being tossed like a rag doll by Efrain. Now in a division stacked with incredible wrestlers as mentioned above, how is Phillipe going to carry himself against the biggest stronger wrestlers that are going to go in there throw a punch and slam him down like a rag doll.
Personally, I believe you give Nover somebody like Aaron Riley or Shannon Gugerty so that he can show that he could be a potential player on down the road. Not 1 champion of the ultimate fighter (minus season 4) has proven that in their first fight that they could fight the champion and win. Griffin, Evans, Sanchez you name it, all of them (minus Stevenson) got almost cake walk fights. Its kind of like being a rookie in a major sporting event, most of the time if you slowly work your way into it the more you understand it and the better you become, I think Efrain, Phillipe and Bader all have that in them. Vinny on the other hand.. I think he needs a new camp, because quite frankly other than Hendo and Lindland, Team Quest has not been that good lately.
Nover would have to be protected Huerta style before getting potentially cashed out somewhere down the line. That’s basically what we come to in discussion of him having a future in the sport. While you mention Griffin, Evans, and Sanchez, it wasn’t long before those guys ended up fighting top 15 level comp. Evans 2nd fight post TUF was Bonnar. Griffin’s 3rd fight post TUF was Tito. Sanchez fought Nick Diaz in his 2nd. Grove fought Cote in his 3rd. Danzig fought Guida with fight #2.
The only exception to this was Nate Diaz. His move up the card has been more deliberate, though I suppose you can easily argue that Pellegrino and Neer are probably the P4P equals of Bonnar or Cote. He was also part of a lightweight crop of 16 that was, as a whole, significantly more talented than this bunch. The point stands though: History seems to dictate that TUF winners and runners up get fights to test them fairly early on, and I don’t see that changing now.
The Diaz season did have a ton of Lightweight talent.
Manvel the Anvil
Diaz
Emerson
Wiman
Corey Hill
Gray Maynard
joe Lauzon
Cole Miller
All Have had long runs in the UFC
And even Gabe Ruedigar was the WEC lightweight champ
I doubt we see another season where 9 of the 16 are legitimate MMA top level fighters?
" Tell me something Steve, How does a guy from Puerto Rico loose a ball in the Sun? "
Gabe, like Huerta, won the belt before it was Zuffa owned. Still, this is on point. The reinstitution of the 155lb weight class was a big part of it. You can’t expect something like it again unless 145 is brought in.
by D.Capitated on Dec 15, 2008 11:42 AM EST up reply actions
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