Will Brock Lesnar's Background Help Him When His Back is Against the Cage?

by Michael Rome on Nov 9, 2008 8:15 AM EST in News Comment 35 comments

People expecting Randy to try to win this fight via submission or KO are expecting a strategy he is not going to employ. He could end up winning there in a scramble, but he's going to try to win this fight the way he always wins--by closing the distance and slowly sucking the life out of Brock Lesnar up against the fence.

Most analysis of this fight so far really ignores where Randy will try to win the wrestling game, and it is a major consideration. None of Brock's amateur training prepares him for a situation where he's up against the fence and has to guess if elbows are coming or a sweep is coming. Most of Randy's takedowns off the fence actually use the fence as an ally. He pushes guys against it and then sweeps when they are off balance. Brock Lesnar's size really can't overwhelm that kind of takedown, he has to be ready to defend those kinds of trips. I have no doubt he has trained for it, but two months of training with his back against the fence just may not be enough.

I thought he looked pretty uncomfortable against Herring when his back was up against the fence. Early on he just held a headlock while he tried to figure things out, which he just can't do against Randy Couture. The fact that it wasn't instinctual to him what he should do in that situation is really where the inexperience factors in. Brock is an incredible wrestler, but if he takes a round worth of dirty boxing, knees, and elbows up against the fence, I expect Randy won't have too hard of a time putting him on his back once he has to worry about those other things.

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I predict this fight going similarly to the Gonzaga fight.

Has Brock’s chin ever been tested? Has he ever been punched? Other than knocking himself nearly unconscious in wrestling with failed moves, I do not think he has been struck in the face.

If Randy cracks him with an opening shot like he did against Tim, it could be a long night for Brock as he shakes out the cobwebs.

If Brock lands that shot from hell like he did against Herring, Randy might go down as well, he did get TKO’ed by Liddell, so Brock just needs to employ the technique. His wrestling is good, but I do not think he can hold Randy down for 5 rounds straight.

In the end I think Randy’s conditioning and experience will pay off and he will end up winning the striking battles and the clinch work up against the fence, and if it goes into deep water, Randy will come out on top.

by DirtyML on Nov 9, 2008 4:38 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I’ve been thinking the same. Exactly like the Gabe Gazaga fight. His Greco-Roman wrestling will be more valuable than Brock’s wrestling experience against the cage in the clench. Its a great strategy and Randy has already shown he can do it against a fighter bigger than himself.

However, if Brock has done his homework he will know that this is a major threat to him and he will do anything to stay off the cage.

by EazyEismydad on Nov 9, 2008 4:42 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

to me the biggest variable in this fight is how much time has caught up with Randy. Remember how bad Evan Tanner (RIP) looked in his last 2 UFC fights? At Randy’s age taking a year off could be disastrous.

by Kid Nate on Nov 9, 2008 10:11 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Well

Age, plus downtime, plus 50+ pound weight difference. I think people are blowing smoke to make this match up look more interesting than it really is.

by mythbuster on Nov 9, 2008 10:16 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The difference being Tanner spent the two years he was absent from fighting as an alcoholic and had to worry about detox as well as a diminished skill set from now training in that two years.

Randy never gets out of shape, spends time at his gym coaching a number of elite and modern MMA fighters so he was constantly staying in and around the game.

I expect there to be little to no deterioration of Couture’s game.

I agree with Rome that there are common positions in MMA (such as against the cage) that Lesnar is very new to, that Randy is a master of. The fight will most likely end up in one of these positions, and even though Lesnar is a monster athlete he’s dealing with one of the most experienced fighters in mixed martial arts who has faced the worst positions in the game and knows how to get out of them.

Come fight time, we’ll see how much of the stuff Lesnar has learned is now second nature to him, because if it isn’t and randy gets him in a position, like with his back against the cage, it will be Randy’s world. Which is a world I doubt Lesnar can survive in.

by SamCupitt on Nov 9, 2008 10:45 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

What if Randy isn't controlling the fight?

I’m quite possibly the President of the Lesnar Nut Hugger Club so maybe I’m wrong on this but I can not understand most of the projections for this fight.

It seems like to me almost all the predictions on how the fight will go talks about what Randy’s game plan is and what he will try to do to Brock and then why Brock will have problems with that.

Where is all the predictions about Lesnar’s game plan and what about his game plan will give Randy problems.

All the experts seem to be only looking at the fight from one side to me.

I honestly believe Randy’s game plan is getting too much attention. I think Brock is going to control where this fight happens. So where is all the predictions about this fight from that point of view.

Just like this article it focuses solely on Randy getting Brock against the cage and using that as an advantage. Where is the flip-side of that?

Brock isn’t an idiot if he thinks that is a weakness he isn’t going to let that happen. If he showed anything from his last fight against Herring it was that he learned from the Mir fight not to put himself in a dangerous position. He played it very safe against Herring not to put himself in a dangerous position. That probably also kept him from finishing the fight though but it allowed him to control the entire fight.

My point is why does it seem like all the experts are trying to anticipate how this fight is going to go through Randy’s eyes like he is going to control the fight?

I just don’t see that happening. Brock is going to control where this fight happens.

So how about somebody give me a Prediction on how the fight will go if Brock is the one controlling where the action happens in this fight!!!

Just stirring the pot a little. : )

by mattman73 on Nov 9, 2008 10:17 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

You didn't get the memo?

I agree with you, but I don’t like Brock.
If you are a Brock sucker you have to talk about how good Randy is, and what a challenge the fight will be for Brock. This is as it’s been since the fight was announced. That way, when it’s done, you can say, “Give him credit now, he defeated a legit opponent!”.

Saying Brock is going to win, and probably easily, is obvious, and obviiously doesn’t help the Fan Club. This is why the Brock fans like Mr. Rome choose to ignore the HUGE advantage he has in this fight, and instead pretend that this is some big test or something.

by mythbuster on Nov 9, 2008 10:24 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Insufficient data available

Randy is a tactician who talks strategy and methodology any time he gets near a microphone. His time as part of the announce team has especially made a lot of Randy’s approaches public.

Brock’s strategic skills are a complete unknown. His camp, if he even still trains there was also known for producing inconsistent gameplan results RE: Sherk, so there isn’t much to go on.

Personally, I think Brock should look for a high half-guard and rest that insane base of his on Randy’s thigh. Pound him out in Randy’s own style. See how he handles it since the Barnett fight.

But I’m biased since I want to see what Randy can do to get out of it.

by asa on Nov 9, 2008 4:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Sweep?

Not sure you’re using the right term. A sweep in jiu-jitsu – which is different from a reversal – is when some form of guard play is used to reverse position. High crotch lifting or trips don’t qualify as such.

by Luke Thomas on Nov 9, 2008 11:12 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Thank you, Luke.

GR body-locks and judo trips occur from a neutral position, sweeps occur from an established position (since the term came from BJJ, usually it’s the guard, but I really do think we need to be a bit more flexible in our application of terminology. Think about takedowns as an example. Everyone considers a guy to have scored a takedown if his maneuver takes his opponent to the ground into the guard position. This actually isn’t a takedown in wrestling, since side/top control hasn’t been established, but we still consider them takedowns in MMA).

I don’t see too many high-crotch lifts in MMA. Rampage did a few that I recall in PRIDE, but mostly guys end up going for double-leg slams.

There is no such thing as innocence, only degrees of guilt.

by misterjonez on Nov 9, 2008 12:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I expect Randy to win. There’s a reason why he preferred to fight in a cage instead of a ring against Fedor should that fight ever get made, and that’s because of the cage itself. I don’t know anyone that effectively uses the cage as a weapon in a fight better than Randy. I suspect Brock to win the first round or so, but Randy’s conditioning and dirty boxing will win out. He’ll grind out a win just as he’s done in the past, and who knows, maybe there’ll be a TKO by ref stoppage in the late rounds. I’m expecting a war in this, so it’s gonna be fun.

by pud333 on Nov 9, 2008 12:16 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I will do a shot for every time that Randy has Brock up against the Fence.

At the end of the night I will be a very sober man.

Couture has had some impressive victories. I mean did you see the fight with that shaved bear. (Tim Sylvia)

But this is an entirely different monster. I have faced demons. Meaning that I have smoked pot and played D+D. This is the thing of nightmares. The man has a dagger tattoo on his chest.

All hysterics aside. Did you see the slow motion to the Herring punch? He broke his eye socket. Word……

by The_Vig on Nov 9, 2008 12:18 PM EST reply actions 5 recs

I have faced demons. Meaning that I have smoked pot and played D+D.

Rec’d.

There is no such thing as innocence, only degrees of guilt.

by misterjonez on Nov 9, 2008 1:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Hey Michael I got to ask Randy about his submission game Thursday's Media call in

We asked if he trained in preparation to fight off of his back with Jiu-Jitsu aces Robert Drysdale or Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza, in preparation for a response from the guard if Lesnar takes him down?

"Definitely, I think you have to be prepared for any possibility in a fight." he said. "Brock is walking into the fight with good grappling credentials so there is potential to fight from that position."

Some people tried to ask about his strategy and he was holding it close and wouldnt let anything slip out. When Franklin McNeil asked him about it he wouldnt give up anything at all.

Narcisist URDirt.com

by Narcisist from URdirt on Nov 9, 2008 1:01 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Training with Drysdale and Jacare would help anyone get better at BJJ – but does that help against Lesnar who is a combo of basic technique and massive strength?

Visit MMA Eruption!

by MMAEruption on Nov 9, 2008 1:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Lets analyze this logically

What has Randy done to prove that he can continue to perform at 45? He beat Tim Sylvia the same way Fedor beat him, a quick jump out of the gate with a flash punch. While Fedor was able to finish Sylvia, Randy had to resort to bear hugging Sylvia for a five round snoozer. Any other fighter and we would have called it a lay and pray tactic. That fight wasn’t much different than the Lesnar-Herring fight except that Brock actually broke Herring’s orbital bone with the first punch.

The fight with Gonzaga was fairly even until Randy broke Gonzaga’s nose with a headbutt. He did not dominate Gonzaga in that fight until the headbutt. We know that Gonzaga tend to roll over and die at the first sight of trouble.

What is the technique that Couture won in those two fights? He used wrestling to control Sylvia and Gonzaga. Against Brock, his greatest asset is neutralized. Brock is a stronger, younger, and bigger version of Randy. The other side of being so big and strong is that he would be extremely difficult to submit, the Mir fight notwithstanding. You can’t rear necked choke a guy with no chin and limbs the size of a man’s torso.

The best thing Randy has going against Lesnar is his dirty boxing and his cardio. This is where he could conceivably win if Lesnar gasses. The other is testing Lesnar’s chin. If I were a gambling man, I would bet that Lesnar’s chin is much stronger than Couture’s. With age, the ability to withstand blunt trauma degrades. We already know that Couture can be knocked out with one good punch. We don’t know anything about Lesnar. However, with that big square chin and youth on his side, I would think the guy’s head is made of granite.

In the end, you have a youthful fighter who may be close to 300 pounds versus a 235 lb 45 year old man. Couture is a man who has defied logic in beating Sylvia and Gonzaga, but I just can’t see him continuing to defy mother nature the way he has done in the past. Everything eventually catches up sooner or later. And I think that day will be Nov 15.

by cyph on Nov 9, 2008 1:06 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

That’s a tad revisionist on the Randy’s fights isn’t it?

Not saying you in particular, but I love how people were creaming when Randy beat the hell out of Gonzaga and Sylvia, but now that he’s had his falling out with the UFC everyone is trying to belittle his past victories and clamoring for someone to take him out.

I for one would like to think that Randy is going to take Brock to school, if not for the sole reason that it makes the sport look a tad amateurish if a former WWE wrestler with 3 pro fights can take out one of, if not the best heavyweight in the history of the sport.

by Frank_Castle on Nov 9, 2008 2:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

…and Fedor took out Sylvia with “a flash punch”?? He drilled him with a strong combination followed by about 20 unanswered shots. That’s like saying Anderson Silva takes out his opponents with a “flash shot” when he knocks them into next week with a strike.

by Frank_Castle on Nov 9, 2008 3:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I disagree

It would be an NCAA champion taking out one of the former greats of the sport. Actually, you said it yourself – “in the history of the sport”. Key word “history”. Point being, Brock wins, if he wins, as a wrestling based MMArtist, not a former WWEntertainer.

by ununkvadrium on Nov 9, 2008 3:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

This is just pure revisionism, the same way Penn fans do.

The fight was not even before the slam, and it wasn’t a headbutt that Broke gonzaga’s nose, it was his own knee. The key technique was using his head movement to duck under punches and immediately close the gap.

Many of the knocks on Couture really don’t take reality into account. Looking back to Barnett and Rodriguez for example is a complete waste of time, he’s not the same fighter at all now, it’s like citing the Vitor fight when analyzing Wanderlei.

Why do I think Randy has a chance to control? Numerous reasons, including 2 or 3 emails from guys at Xtreme Couture a couple weeks ago wowed at the way he was “tossing Shane Carwin around like a ragdoll.”

It’s hard to even take seriously the argument that Sylvia was a lay and pray fight. It’s utterly ridiculous.

by Michael Rome on Nov 9, 2008 3:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Not to mention he totally “outboxed” a fighter who was considered to be the best striker in their HW division at the time, something Andrei Arlovski couldn’t do.

And I was just about to mention the Carwin item before you beat me to it. It’s not like Brock is completely unique, Randy is a master strategist and is obviously planning his fight around having to fight a massive HW like Brock. It’s been no secret that he’s brought in Carwin and some other “big guys” to simulate situations he’ll be facing against Brock. So for people who say, “yeah, but he’s never faced anyone like Brock, you can’t train for THAT.”, you’re wrong.

Frankly I think Carwin is probably a better, more polished version of Brock (at this point), so I’m certain Randy is well prepared for the big weight difference. And I really think people are missing the massive experience differential that’s going to be at play in this fight.

by Frank_Castle on Nov 9, 2008 3:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

This is where yours and Rome’s view of the fight differs from mine. What you two see as “outboxed” was a early punch that stunned Sylvia. From then on, there wasn’t any boxing involved other than Couture holding Sylvia down for 5 rounds. This wasn’t much different than the Lesnar/Herring fight.

The first time I watched the fight with friends, I thought Couture domininated Sylvia. However, watching it again with a critical eye, I didn’t see anything out of the ordinary other than Couture holding down a stunned Sylvia for five rounds.

by cyph on Nov 9, 2008 3:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I honestly haven’t seen the fight since I caught a replay of it quite a bit back. I do think that you’re pretty much always well informed and present well thought arguments, so I’m going to hunt down the fight and rewatch it.

I could be suffering from the “caught in the moment” effect of watching the fight, so I’ll try to give it another go and see if my persepective changes.

by Frank_Castle on Nov 9, 2008 3:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

No boxing?

Holy shit. Couture boxed Tim all night, Randy was duckin’ and weavin’ out of harms way then jumping in and tagging a stunned looking Sylvia over and over again. Tim was seriously discouraged by Randy’s boxing ability, he even said he never knew what Randy was going to do next in his immediate post-fight interview with Joe.
wth?

by dualdiagnosis on Nov 10, 2008 3:23 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

We’ll have to disagree on the Sylvia fight. The problem with Sylvia’s size is the same problem I see with Lesnar. Couture couldn’t put the big man away. And frankly, the way Couture had Sylvia’s back, had it been any other fighter, the referee would have stood them up. Watch the fight again and tell me that the fight shouldn’t have been stood up with Couture on Sylvia’s back for 5 minutes.

While I don’t doubt that Xtreme Couture told you that Couture was “tossing Shane Carwin around like a ragdoll,” what does this really prove anyway? That’s like Lesnar’s coaches saying that Lesnar jujitsu is black belt caliber.

You can accuse me of revisionism, which you’re entitled to since we saw the fight from different perspectives. However, your logic that Couture is somehow better than he was 2-3 years ago in his advanced age doesn’t make sense to me. Couture hasn’t fought in over a year and he’s aged an extra year since then. With age, ability and strength diminishes. I think it’s highly dubious that Couture could have improved much since his layoff. However, if someone tells me that Lesnar has improved leaps and bound since his last fight, I would be more than inclined to believe them.

You’ve attacked my “revisionist” analysis of Couture’s last two fights, but you haven’t really addressed why Couture will be able to beat Lesnar other than he can toss Carwin around like a rag doll. You may disagree with my analysis that Couture defeated Sylvia via lay and pray, but that doesn’t really negate my other points.

by cyph on Nov 9, 2008 3:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

At what point in the third round, when Randy outboxed tim for 5 minutes and never took him down, did he pay and pray?

Brock is not a younger and stronger version of Randy. He looks clueless outside his comfort zone, can’t put hooks in, and punches standing straight up. A lot of MMA is decided in the transitions, and I think there will be a lot of transitions in this fight. Herring’s takedown defense and wrestling are horrible, Randy will make Lesnar work. Even Herring stuffed a takedown…what if Randy stuffs a few, what will Brock do? His best chance to win is a brutal standing strike. Unfortunately for him Randy is hard to hit.

by Michael Rome on Nov 9, 2008 3:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

While beating Herring was a feather in his cap and proved he’s not all hype, the fact that people want to use “he bullied Herring” as an example of how much trouble he’ll give Randy is baffling to say the least. Shoving around Herring and shoving around Couture are worlds apart.

Herring’s wrestling is freaking dreadful…so the fact that he got tossed around by a credentialed wrestler is not a huge shock, Randy would have steamrolled him much worse given his experience – which Lesnar still lacks. Lesnar had multiple opportunities to finish him but either didn’t want to take chances and put himself in a precarious situation or is genuinely unsure of what to do in these situations.

by Frank_Castle on Nov 9, 2008 4:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I am getting sick of the talk about Brock not putting the hooks in on Herring. From what I have seen of Herring’s fights, he gives up his back so that his opponent puts in the hooks, then he reverses out of it. Fedor and Nog twice could not submit Herring, why would Brock want to even try when he could ride top control and get the easy win.

by iiowyn on Nov 9, 2008 6:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

So it’s the former and not the latter. I didn’t admonish him for not taking a risk in that fight, all I said is that it shows his lack of experience b/c either (a) he’s not comfortable in risking giving up position, in order to get “better position” to finish or (b) he just didn’t know what to do in the situation.

The point being that if you don’t finish someone when you have an opportunity to do so, you allow them to stay in the fight. That’s not something I’d advise if you were fighting Randy, because you don’t want to let a guy like him “hang around”.

by Frank_Castle on Nov 9, 2008 6:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It was called a game plan, not inexperience. Heath Herring is extremely good at reversing, especially when someone has his back. Lesnar’s camp decided that the GAME PLAN was to not take Herring’s back and risk a reversal.

One big thing I’ve not heard too much is the amount of tape on each person. Lesnar has infinitely more fight tape to look at and gameplan against Randy.

by iiowyn on Nov 9, 2008 8:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I don’t believe Randy will be able to hold him against the fence. Randy only wins during a scramble. Lesnar will dictate where the fight takes place. If Lesnar wants off the fence, he won’t have any problem pushing Randy around.

by Heenan on Nov 9, 2008 3:53 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I think Brock will win this one :)

by Cornu on Nov 9, 2008 8:10 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

two possible outcomes

brock by KO in 1st round or randy by dominant 5 round decision. only scenerios i can see…

i also have learned never ever to bet against randy.

on a more philophical level i think we all want to believe that skill will beat strength, otherwise why bother training?….on the other hand we dont know how much skill Brock really has. his chin stil hasnt been tested either, but i dont think it will happen this fight.

by Headkick on Nov 9, 2008 9:37 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Even I said it previously, but I'm beginning to doubt that Lesnar

will end this thing super-early. He couldn’t finish Herring, although he utterly dominated him for fifteen minutes, and you probably can’t finish Couture if you couldn’t finish Herring. It’s possible that either of these guys could floor the other guy with a power shot early on and end it quickly, but I’m kinda doubting it.

This is going to be a great fight.

There is no such thing as innocence, only degrees of guilt.

by misterjonez on Nov 9, 2008 9:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs