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The $100 Experiment: WEC 36 Results

A rough night for the experiment.  I saw some pretty decent opportunities here, but the chips just didn't fall my way (seems like that's happening a lot recently...).  Here's the night's breakdown:

Jake Rosholt vs. Nissen Osterneck, $1 on Osterneck @ +260, Lost $1.  Both fighters are still new to the fight game, but I felt Osterneck had pretty good submissions and also an advantage in the standup.  Osterneck did a good job of beating up Rosholt on the feet, but Rosholt took him down with almost no effort, and Osterneck's jiu-jitsu was rendered useless by Rosholt's control.  In the second round, Osterneck landed some incredible combinations and looked to have Rosholt hurt.  Unfortunately, he threw an off-balance, telegraphed spinning back fist which left him wide open for a takedown/mount.  Rosholt showed how much he has left to learn, but he also showed some awesome potential here.

Yoshiro Maeda vs. Rani Yahya, $2.10 on Maeda @ -105, Lost $2.10.  Rani had been a huge disappointment leading up to this fight.  His takedowns looked terrible and his cardio was pretty bad too.  On the other hand, Maeda just came off a thrilling performance (albeit a defeat) against Miguel Torres, where he showed  a well-rounded and effective fight game.  All that was thrown out the window, as Maeda failed to heed the sage advice of Wu-Tang -- "protect ya neck".

I didn't do a write-up of Sengoku VI, as I'm not very familiar with a lot of the Japanese fighters, but I did put a dollar on Fabio Silva, since I wasn't entirely sold on King Mo.  Much like today's bet on a wrestling blue chip prospect, my bet was sour and lost me a dollar.  I'm in the middle of a pretty bad streak right now, but I think a lot of good events are coming up.  UFC 91 is just around the corner, and I'll definitely do a write-up leading up to fight night.  So far, I'm 20-21-3 down $10.15.

The FanPosts are solely the subjective opinions of Bloody Elbow readers and do not necessarily reflect the views of Bloody Elbow editors or staff.

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Rough night...

but I like your bet on Maeda alot. Yahya has tremendous ground work but he hasn’t been able to get it there with much gusto. Osterneck was a decent value at +260, so you can still hold your head high.

I can’t say it enough, I love watching step-by-step analysis of your experiment. Keep up the good work.

by B Money on Nov 6, 2008 2:46 AM EST reply actions  

also...

good reference…

Wu-Tang Clan ain’t nothin’ to fuck with!

by B Money on Nov 6, 2008 2:47 AM EST up reply actions  

I think you are learning that the lines are better then they seem. Its not anything you can’t recover from, but I expereinced a similar down turn after feeling great about my knowledge and confedent in my picks. I suggest you watch all the old fights you can, even if you have seen them before. Sports betting is like playing poker with a table of experts, sure you can win, but you have to work hard and be just a knowledgeable as them if not more knowledgeable. That being said, I liked your plays for WEC 36 even though they didn’t turn out. I bet Sonnen, Maeda, and Garcia. Osterneck was a good value in hindsight. I would have taken Cowboy too, but I waited to long and got held up at work and missed the deadline.

by szucconi on Nov 6, 2008 9:03 AM EST reply actions  

I made bets on Maeda, Faber, Pulver and Sonnen last night…and I thought Sonnen was the risk! Very bad night for me and many others I’m sure. I got Faber at a terrific line too (-370) compared to the -600s he was at before the fight. I guess you’ll have this though. Keep your head up and you’ll make it through the rough patch.

by ericmunley on Nov 6, 2008 3:40 PM EST reply actions  

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