BloodyElbow.com Staff Predictions for WEC 36: Faber vs. Brown

MAIN CARD:

Urijah Faber vs. Mike Brown



Luke Thomas: Mike Brown is very well-rounded with good punching power, very good BJJ and underrated wrestling. In many ways, his skillset is similar to Faber's. But everything Brown is good at, Faber is much better. Most importantly, Faber is the better athlete of the two. Faber will force scrambles where his quick, adaptive thinking allows him to force his opponents into a defensive position to sort out the confusion. From here is where Faber will begin to pour it on. Faber's pace, physical assult and speed chess game is simply too much for Brown to match. Faber by TKO, round 3.

Kid Nate: Before his impressive triumph over Jens Pulver, I thought the way to beat Faber was via a sprawlNbrawl attack. After seeing his chin and tremendous handspeed against Pulver, I'm not so sure about that. Brown brings a BJJ based game into this fight. After seeing Jeff Curran spend a round on Faber's back and not get the choke, I think Brown has a small chance at nailing an early submission on the California Kid. A very small chance. Faber by TKO in 2.

Brent Brookhouse: When this fight was first announced I had that moment of "oh yeah, this is the prefect fight for Brown" and then I spent some time thinking about things and said "wait...no it isn't."  Unless Urijah gets sloppy and falls into a sub I can't see anything happening other than another dominant Faber win.  Faber by TKO in 3.

Nick Thomas: Brown is bigger and probably stronger but Faber is unstoppable. The WEC needs to sign Norifumi "Kid" Yamamoto stat. Faber by TKO.

Mike Fagan: Faber's proven he's on the same level of dominance as Anderson Silva, Fedor Emelianenko, Georges St. Pierre, etc.  The improved striking he showed in the Jens Pulver fight is an absolutely huge step in his advancement as a fighter.  Brown's size might come into play here, but I still don't think he'll have any sort of strength advantage in this fight.  I'm going to go Faber by decision.

Chris Nelson: I have no doubt this will be one of Faber's most stern (if not his sternest) challenge thus far, but picking anyone against the California Kid right now is like picking against Anderson Silva. He shows too much improvement in every fight for me to have any reason to believe he'll be outpointed, even by a very tough Brown. Faber via Decision.

Cannon Jacques:  Faber has proven that he's the man in his division.  I don't see Brown being the guy that can derail him.  Faber by late round TKO.


Paulo Filho vs. Chael Sonnen



Luke Thomas: This is a difficult one to call only because of the shortcomings of both fighters. Sonnen should've won easily last time, but implemented the worst gameplan imaginable. Filho has fantastic BJJ, but is physically unprepared to be fighting tonight. Sonnen is known for making all the same mistakes over and over again as evidenced by his trio of losses to Jeremy Horn. He's also particularly susceptible to the arm bar. I am unbelievably tempted to call this for Sonnen, but something tells me going back to the well for him is going to be costly...again. Filho by submission, round 2.

Kid Nate: Sonnen was whipping Filho in their first fight until he got stupid and decided to follow Filho to the ground. If he'd stuck with a sprawlNbrawl game plan, Chael would be champion today. I still like Sonnen's chances here. Filho is very short for middleweight and his standup is sloppy and leaves him vulnerable. He'll also have a hard time forcing Sonnen to the ground if Sonnen doesn't want to go. Having said all that, I'm still going to pick Filho because of Sonnen's habit of making dumb decisions in the middle of fights. Filho by submission in 1.

Brent Brookhouse:  I'd be taking Filho here if it weren't for all the distractions he has dealt with over the past few years.  Sonnen's goal here has to be "just work my game" and at no point play around with Filho on the ground.  This is a case like what we saw in boxing where Mayorga was not a better boxer than Vernon Forrest but he dominated him in two straight fights.  Filho is the better fighter, but Sonnen has the game to offset his skills.  Sonnen by decision.

Nick Thomas: I’m hoping Sonnen doesn't play around with Filho on the ground again. If he does, Filho has this. But I believe Sonnen can take this on points. Sonnen by decision.

Mike Fagan: If Sonnen fights in a way that made this rematch necessary - namely outboxing Filho on the feet - I'd feel comfortable picking him to win.  Unfortunately, I saw an interview that said he wanted to take Filho down and pound him there.  Team Quest has been notorious for not conjuring up efficient gameplans, so it wouldn't surprise me if that's the case.  Paulo should also be in a better mental state for this fight, so I'll take Filho by submission, round 3.

Chris Nelson: Filho's had a long layoff with myriad distractions since his first bout with Sonnen. Ring rust has never been an issue in the Brazilian's career, and one has to believe he'll enter this rematch re-focused and with a solid gameplan after the scare Sonnen gave him. [UPDATE: I'll still take an overweight Filho. But damn, Paulao, seven pounds!] Filho via Submission, Round 2.

Cannon Jacques:  I have a feeling that Filho is going to look much sharper this time around.  Sonnen is a great wrestler, but Filho's BJJ will be the difference.  Filho by second round submission.


Jens Pulver vs. Leonard Garcia



Luke Thomas: Pulver is going to pick Garcia apart from the outside and make him miss. Garcia is tougher than he's being given credit, but he doesn't have an answer for Jens' combination of head/trunk movement, power, south paw stance, and superior boxing technique. Pulver by decision.

Kid Nate: This is one I really wish both fighters could win. They're both rebounding from some bad luck and I hate to see either guy lose. I think Pulver has too much power and ring savvy for Garcia. Pulver by TKO in 3.

Brent Brookhouse:  Pulver's striking is tighter and that will be enough for him to take a hard fought decision here.  Pulver by decision.

Nick Thomas: This should be a great fight. Could go either way, but I'm going to give the slight edge to Garcia. Garcia by decision.

Mike Fagan: Garcia surprised me in the Takaya fight, but I don't think he'll be able to get away with the wild brawling style here.  Pulver's training up with Matt Hume for this fight, and it sounds like the new regimen is doing a lot of good.  I think Pulver's crisper striking takes this.  Pulver by TKO, round 2.

Chris Nelson: Very tough one to call. Pulver says he's overhauled his training regiment, and that makes me less inclined to pick him (old dog, etc.). I can see Garcia taking a late submission, but more likely this goes to the cards. Garcia via decision.

Cannon Jacques:  Garcia should keep up a frantic pace in this one.  I think it will be an awesome and close fight, but I see Garcia outworking Pulver.  Garcia by decision.


Jake Rosholt vs. Nissen Osterneck



Luke Thomas: Osterneck is very good, but this is not a good fight for him. Osterneck is sloppy on the feet. He chases opposition, doesn't use range well and over commits in his attacks. His jiu-jitsu is good, but it's nowhere nearly as good as Rosholt's. For all of Rosholt's green skills, what he does have is so much better than Osterneck's. Rosholt is going to take Osterneck down at will, pass his guard and earn the TKO victory. No armbars from Rosholt this time. Rosholt by TKO, round 1.

Kid Nate: Tough fight to call. Both fighters are fairly green and both are undefeated in MMA. Osterneck is highly touted for his BJJ and muy thai skills where Rosholt is a decorated wrestler who's just learning stand-up and submssions. This is a classic MMA style match-up. I think Rosholt might have more gaps in his game. I'm going to go out on a limb and pick Osterneck to win by submission.

Brent Brookhouse:  Rosholt is an absolute stud.  Osterneck is right there with him.  I still like Rosholt's explosiveness and just dominant wrestling to take this one by smothering Nissen with takedowns and GnP.  Jake Rosholt by TKO round 3.

Nick Thomas: As long as Rosholt can stay away from the submission attempts. Rosholt will use his wrestling to control the fight. Rosholt by decision.

Mike Fagan: From what I've heard about him and seen from his fights, Rosholt is a blue-chip type of prospect.  I'm going to ride that wave.  Rosholt by TKO, round 2.

Chris Nelson: Not a bad fight here, but Osterneck presents much less of a challenge to the rising Rosholt than Danillo Villefort would have. Expect much grounding and pounding. Rosholt via decision.

Cannon Jacques:  Rosholt should use his wrestling to outpoint Osterneck.  Rosholt by decision.

UNDERCARD:

Rob McCullough vs. Donald Cerrone



Luke Thomas: I would be absolutely shocked if Cerrone is able to take McCullough down. For all his faults, McCullough has extremely good takedown defense. Cerrone might be able to pull guard, but I doubt that will work either. McCullough will do everything in his power to stand and will spin out and fight off Cowboy's guard. So I suspect this fight will end up being waged on the feet. In terms of pure technique, McCullough might be the superior of the two with better combinations and excellent, nimble footwork. But McCullough is also hesitant to engage leaving Cowboy some opportunities. Still, I think McCullough's distancing and jab will win him the day. Razor by decision.

Kid Nate: After McCullough's dismal performance last time, I'm really going to be rooting for Cowboy to take him down and beat him out. Cerrone by TKO.

Brent Brookhouse:  McCullough has come back to earth a little bit as he was getting way more credit than he should have as a top level guy.  That being said this is a nice comeback fight for him.  Rob McCullough by KO round 1.

Nick Thomas: I see Razor Rob making a mistake and getting caught in something on the ground. Cerrone by submission.

Mike Fagan: Cerrone is a finisher and McCullough looked awful in his last fight.  Cerrone by submission, round 2.

Chris Nelson: Razor Rob has never been submitted in 20 professional MMA fights. That streak ends here. Cerrone via Submission, Round 1.

Cannon Jacques:  Although McCullough didn't look good at all in his last outing, I look for him to bounce back here.  McCullough by TKO, round 2.


David Avellan vs. Aaron Simpson



Luke Thomas: Avellan has very good submission skills, but Simpson hits extremely hard and has much better wrestling. Simpson by TKO.

Kid Nate: I wasn't overly impressed with Avellan's performance in the BoDog fight of his I saw. I'm taking wrestler Aaron Simpson by TKO.

Brent Brookhouse: This is actually a pretty even fight but I'll take Aaron Simpson by decision.

Michael Rome: Avellan via Submission, Round 1.

Nick Thomas: Avellan by decision.

Mike Fagan: Simpson by TKO.

Cannon Jacques:  Simpson by TKO.


Jose Aldo vs. Jonathon Brookins



Luke Thomas: Brookins isn't a pushover, but Aldo is in another league. He is an excellent athlete but fantastic, explosive striking, vicious aggression, good jiu-jitsu and enough defensive wrestling to keep Brookins in trouble the entire fight. Aldo via TKO, round 3.

Kid Nate: Aldo destroyed old school legend Alexandre Franca Nogueira in his WEC debut, Aldo is lanky and a dangerously unconventional striker (capoeira anyone?) but he's up against a damn fine wrestler with good striking and decent jiu jitsu in Brookins. I'm really looking forward to this one. Going to flip a coin and say that Aldo forgets his jiu jitsu and gets beaten on the ground. Brookins by TKO.

Brent Brookhouse:  Aldo is no joke, not that Brookins is...but Aldo poses a bit more danger as a finisher and can end the fight at almost any moment.  Aldo by KO round 1.

Nick Thomas: Aldo by experience and KO.

Mike Fagan: Aldo by TKO.

Chris Nelson: This shouldn't be much of a contest, but I can't discount Brookins, who's tough and has powerful wrestling. Aldo is for real though, and should be up for a title shot in short order. Aldo via dominating decision.

Cannon Jacques:  Brookins by decision.


Rani Yahya vs. Yoshiro Maeda



Luke Thomas: Yahya's jiu-jitsu in MMA is the sort where he needs an opponent to either over commit or have a lack of submission acumen where they can't see set-ups as they're being arranged. Maeda does tend to over commit a little, but has superb defense against guard players and is savvy enough himself to see all but the most advanced set-ups. I do worry Maeda doesn't have the base Beebe has, but I still think he's got enough. Maedea via decision.

Kid Nate: Yahya's grappling really is other-worldly, he's right up there with Shinya Aoki and Satoru Kitaoka as one of the few one-dimensional grapplers who is good enough to hang in modern MMA. Last time he fought in the WEC his conditioning let him down against Chase Beebe. I think Maeda's well-rounded and experienced enough to survive the assault on the ground and grind out a win. Maeda by decision.

Brent Brookhouse:  Maeda is tough as all hell and that is going to carry him here.  He'll lose the first round and take it over from there.  Maeda by decision.

Nick Thomas: Yahya by submission.

Mike Fagan: Maeda's performance against Miguel Torres really impressed me. I thought Yahya looked good against Kid Yamamoto as well, but I think Maeda's experience will come in handy.  Maeda by TKO round 2.

Chris Nelson: Maeda via TKO, Round 3.

Cannon Jacques:  Maeda really displayed his toughness against Torres.  Maeda by decision.


Carmelo Marrero vs. Steve Steinbeiss



Luke Thomas: Steinbeiss is more improved than he's being giving credit, but Marrero is a big, physical wrestler with a quick shot and improved guard passing. I suspect that will be enough. Marrero by decision.

Kid Nate: Speaking of one-dimensional, both of these guys define the term. Carmelo "the Mat" Marrero should patent the layNpray and Steinbeiss is a kickboxer with basically no ground-game that I've seen. Busting out my paper-scissors-rock kit, I must say that paper beats rock, ergo Marerro by decision.

Brent Brookhouse: This deserves its undercard status because it's going to be 15 minutes of Marrero laying on top and taking a boring decision.  Marerro by decision.

Nick Thomas: Steinbeiss by decision.

Mike Fagan: Marrero by boring decision.
 
Chris Nelson: Marrero via Submission, Round 2.

Cannon Jacques:  Marrero by decision.


Danny Castillo vs. Rafael Dias



Luke Thomas: Barring a major problem, Castillo is going to smother Dias and test his cardio. Under exhaustion his submission defense won't be enough. Castillo by submission, round 2.

Kid Nate: I don't have words to express my disappointment that Ed "9mm" Ratcliff had to pull out of the fight. Everyone knows I'm a sucker for TMA (traditional martial arts) guys who can make a go of it in MMA. But as it is, I've got to go with Castillo over late replacement Dias. Castillo by TKO.

Brent Brookhouse:  Dias is in a really bad spot being such a late replacement and we're all in a really bad spot missing out on a 9mm fight.  Castillo by submission.

Nick Thomas: Castillo by TKO.

Mike Fagan: Castillo by submission.

Chris Nelson: Dias via Submission, Round 1.

Cannon Jacques: Castillo via submission.