FightLines: Heavyweights Vol. III

Hwnov_medium

Barnett <> Nogueira
Kharitonov <> Overeem
Hunt > Filipovic > Barnett > Hunt
Vera > Mir > Lesnar > Couture > Sylvia > Vera

FightLines FAQ
FightLines: Heavyweights Vol. I
FightLines: Heavyweights Vol. II

FightLines Extrapolated Power Rankings:

Name RatingPLUS
1 Fedor Emelianenko 1.856
1 Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira 1.856
3 Tim Sylvia 1.619
4 Andrei Arlovski 1.496
5 Josh Barnett 1.326
6 Cain Velasquez 1.205
7 Brock Lesnar 1.117
7 Randy Couture 1.117
9 Ben Rothwell 0.549
10 Aleksander Emelianenko 0.469

Explanation and analysis of the graph, plus an addition to the power rankings formula after the break.

The MMA world better watch out for Fedor Emelianenko and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira.  These two guys might be pretty good.

The top 10 list looks A LOT more believable this month as a result of a minor tweak (that I will discuss at the end).  Suffice it to say, subjectively, I might move Lesnar up and Velasquez down (or removed), but otherwise, I think the system fares pretty well for itself here.

Junior dos Santos, fresh off his surpsing KO upset of BJJ wizard Fabricio Werdum, will probably end up on the graph's next incarnation.  The last meta-rankings didn't have him ranked, and he didn't fight anyone outside of Werdum in the top 25.  I haven't peeked around a lot, but I know Sherdog has him at number ten currently, which I disagree with.  KOing a top ten guy without any other wins of significance shouldn't vault him over guys like Gabriel Gonzaga, Ben Rothwell, or even Aleksander Emelianenko and  Roy Nelson

A ranking list should have a champion (whether he or she be crowned or just the de facto number one guy or lady) and a pecking order of challengers underneath him.  If Dana White had control over every fighter in the world and offered to let you match up Fedor with either Gonzaga or dos Santos, which would be the more compelling fight to you?

As for the graph itself, we've gotten away from the visual separation of UFC and non-UFC guys, with fighters like Tim Sylvia, Mirko Filipovic and Werdum bridging the gaps.  While the meat of the graph has changed, the top has not.  Emelianenko and Nogueira share not only the same score, but the exact same beatwins and beatlosses.  While a third fight might not prove any different than the first two (excluding the no contest), it would still be relevant. Unless Brock Lesnar usurps Nogueira, we might have a disputed heavyweight champion under the FightLines system for quite awhile.

Emelianenko's fight with Andrei Arlovski brings together some great matchmaking and what could be an interesting fight.  An Arlovski win wouldn't have the same nuclear holocaust effect Forrest Griffin's victory over Quinton Jackson would, but it would certainly alter the landscape of the heavyweight division.  Nogueira would sneak into the number one spot, and Emelianenko would be left only with his wins over Zuluzinho and Mark Hunt.  Which, I believe, would drop him significantly in the FightLines system (which rewards consistent activity).

Power Rankings Explanation

I added in a component that penalizes a fighter for losing to someone not represented on the graph.  For instance, it's unfair for Werdum to go unpunished as a result of the exclusive nature of the selection process.  With that in mind, here's the updated formula:

RatingPLUS = (((Bwins -Bloss) / (Bwins + Bloss + Aloss) + 1) / 2) + ((Bwins/Fighters) - (Bloss/Fighters * 2)) + (NSloss * M)

Key

Bwins - Beatwins, the number of fighters an individual has paths to below them on the FightLines graph

Bloss - Beatlosses, the number of fighters an individual has paths to above them on the FightLines graph

Aloss - Ambiguous Losses, losses that have been looped out that leave the two fighters involved without a path to each other

Fighters - Total Fighters, the number of fighters on the graph minus the fighter in question

NSloss - Non-system Losses, losses to fighters who aren't represented in the system

M - Multiplier, currently the raw rating of the bottom-most fighter in the system which is always a negative number (subject to change)

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