FightLines: Heavyweights Vol. III
by Mike Fagan on Nov 25, 2008 9:03 AM EST
in MMA News
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Barnett <> Nogueira
Kharitonov <> Overeem
Hunt > Filipovic > Barnett > Hunt
Vera > Mir > Lesnar > Couture > Sylvia > Vera
FightLines FAQ
FightLines: Heavyweights Vol. I
FightLines: Heavyweights Vol. II
FightLines Extrapolated Power Rankings:
| Name | RatingPLUS | |
| 1 | Fedor Emelianenko | 1.856 |
| 1 | Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira | 1.856 |
| 3 | Tim Sylvia | 1.619 |
| 4 | Andrei Arlovski | 1.496 |
| 5 | Josh Barnett | 1.326 |
| 6 | Cain Velasquez | 1.205 |
| 7 | Brock Lesnar | 1.117 |
| 7 | Randy Couture | 1.117 |
| 9 | Ben Rothwell | 0.549 |
| 10 | Aleksander Emelianenko | 0.469 |
Explanation and analysis of the graph, plus an addition to the power rankings formula after the break.
The MMA world better watch out for Fedor Emelianenko and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira. These two guys might be pretty good.
The top 10 list looks A LOT more believable this month as a result of a minor tweak (that I will discuss at the end). Suffice it to say, subjectively, I might move Lesnar up and Velasquez down (or removed), but otherwise, I think the system fares pretty well for itself here.
Junior dos Santos, fresh off his surpsing KO upset of BJJ wizard Fabricio Werdum, will probably end up on the graph's next incarnation. The last meta-rankings didn't have him ranked, and he didn't fight anyone outside of Werdum in the top 25. I haven't peeked around a lot, but I know Sherdog has him at number ten currently, which I disagree with. KOing a top ten guy without any other wins of significance shouldn't vault him over guys like Gabriel Gonzaga, Ben Rothwell, or even Aleksander Emelianenko and Roy Nelson.
A ranking list should have a champion (whether he or she be crowned or just the de facto number one guy or lady) and a pecking order of challengers underneath him. If Dana White had control over every fighter in the world and offered to let you match up Fedor with either Gonzaga or dos Santos, which would be the more compelling fight to you?
As for the graph itself, we've gotten away from the visual separation of UFC and non-UFC guys, with fighters like Tim Sylvia, Mirko Filipovic and Werdum bridging the gaps. While the meat of the graph has changed, the top has not. Emelianenko and Nogueira share not only the same score, but the exact same beatwins and beatlosses. While a third fight might not prove any different than the first two (excluding the no contest), it would still be relevant. Unless Brock Lesnar usurps Nogueira, we might have a disputed heavyweight champion under the FightLines system for quite awhile.
Emelianenko's fight with Andrei Arlovski brings together some great matchmaking and what could be an interesting fight. An Arlovski win wouldn't have the same nuclear holocaust effect Forrest Griffin's victory over Quinton Jackson would, but it would certainly alter the landscape of the heavyweight division. Nogueira would sneak into the number one spot, and Emelianenko would be left only with his wins over Zuluzinho and Mark Hunt. Which, I believe, would drop him significantly in the FightLines system (which rewards consistent activity).
Power Rankings Explanation
I added in a component that penalizes a fighter for losing to someone not represented on the graph. For instance, it's unfair for Werdum to go unpunished as a result of the exclusive nature of the selection process. With that in mind, here's the updated formula:
RatingPLUS = (((Bwins -Bloss) / (Bwins + Bloss + Aloss) + 1) / 2) + ((Bwins/Fighters) - (Bloss/Fighters * 2)) + (NSloss * M)
Key
Bwins - Beatwins, the number of fighters an individual has paths to below them on the FightLines graph
Bloss - Beatlosses, the number of fighters an individual has paths to above them on the FightLines graph
Aloss - Ambiguous Losses, losses that have been looped out that leave the two fighters involved without a path to each other
Fighters - Total Fighters, the number of fighters on the graph minus the fighter in question
NSloss - Non-system Losses, losses to fighters who aren't represented in the system
M - Multiplier, currently the raw rating of the bottom-most fighter in the system which is always a negative number (subject to change)
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An actual system to determine rankings, incredible. However I do have a question? Doesn’t Fedor get an arrow over Nogueria for beating him head to head?
The FightLines system only goes back 3 years, so Fedor’s victories over Nogueira aren’t included.
That said, I’m not sure any objective system* can be used independently by itself. Because even the most active fighters at the top only fight 5-6 times max, there’s not a lot of consistent data to use. In the same vein as college football, a typical FightLines fighter will only have 5-8 recognized fights in a given 3 year period. Combining objective rankings such as these (also: MMA ELO and FightMatrix) with subjective opinions from respected sources such as Sherdog do a pretty good job of finding consensus picks.
- - Disclaimer: You can never really have a truly objective system because you have to make subjective judgements on formulas, etc. Use of the word “objective” implies the attempt at a ranking system based primarily on the data available.
Thanks for answering my question.
Your system is very good because it’s a least a mix of subjective judgments with available data. Whereas Top 10 rankings I’ve seen are subjective judgments in contrast to available data.
What did you think Yahoo mentioning that Brock Lesnar almost cracked their Top 10 P4P?
so according to this, if lesnar beats nog, he’s the top heavyweight guy?
http://weoweoweo.deviantart.com/
This is the first time I’ve seen these Fightlines, so I’m a little confused but I like the concept. Why is Mir’s win over Lesnar not included?
Not a criticism, just trying to work it out :)
Close
Me = FightMatrix rating system creator
Me = BloodyElbow Meta Rankings Calculation Creator
Oh and I just like rankings/ratings..
I understand that this ranking system is objective and logical and in that respect I support it’s authenticity. However, I cannot really agree with any rating system that puts Fedor at ~1.8, Sylvia at ~1.6, Barnett at ~1.3, Lesnar at 1.1 (for being one real guy in Herring; everybody with half a brain knew that Lesnar was going to pound Couture’s face in) and Aleks at ~.45. The disparity there is just silly.
These rankings are more about what have you done for me lately.
Aleks really hasn’t had a significant match in quite sometime.
Yeah, it’s almost like sports power rankings that try to rank based on “which team would win a head-to-head series that started today”.
"I'm AJB and I endorse this nut-puncher."
I think that’s what that guy is looking for, which is like what college sports top 25 polls give you.
This is more standings based. Aleks may be able to beat Brock, but he doesn’t have as many big wins in the last 3 years as Brock does, so Brock is ranked higher.
The last thing I’m trying to do with this is create a predictive system. It’s definitely more in line with a “what have you done for me lately” mindset.
As for the RatingsPLUS figures, these again don’t show you anything about how the fighters would stack up against each other. It’s just an amalgamation of what they have accomplished over the past 3 years. Sylvia, for instance, only has three losses: Couture, Nogueira, and Emelianenko and has beat As. Silva, Arlovski, Arlovski, Monson, and Vera. That’s a pretty good run and the system reflects that.
What the FightLines are is descriptive rather than predictive.
by Richard Wade on Nov 25, 2008 9:16 PM EST up reply actions
I’ve only had this same discussion with regard to baseball statistics about one thousand times.
by Richard Wade on Nov 25, 2008 9:52 PM EST up reply actions
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