The 1.2 Million Strategy

by Michael Rome on Nov 17, 2008 7:12 PM EST in News Comment 37 comments

All week Dana White proclaimed that he thought UFC 91 would do 1.2 million buys. I was skeptical from the beginning that this show would break the million mark, and two weeks out when the hype was not there, I thought they'd come way short.

The rating that Ortiz-Shamrock drew in 2006 opened up a lot of media eyes. The numbers at that point were undeniable, they all knew they'd have to cover it. They were burned again in early 2007 by missing the media story of the year, Randy Couture coming out of retirement to beat up a giant. This time, the promise of Randy and huge success brought them in, and the presence of Brock Lesnar certainly didn't hurt.

The kind of coverage the show got this week was simply amazing. Dana White was on First Take and Jim Rome, the UFC was all over SportsCenter, and the MMA Live team covered the show on location. The coverage was also completely respectful: it focused on the fights rather than focusing on whether this was even a sport to begin with. In a word, that is progress.

The trending numbers look very good early. I expect the buys to break the 800 mark, which is the internal prediction of the show as of a few days before it. If they do 1.2 million, they'll be doing cartwheels in the street, but 800 is an incredible number and there's no reason to slam it. If I had to go out on a limb, I am going to predict 900,000 buys, and my guess is we'll know soon enough.

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just out of curiousity, what’s their record high for ppv buys?

i will agree that the espn coverage was above and beyond most people’s expectations. i dont expect they’ll make a habit of it, but hopefully they repeat the process with any future “super fights”. pretty remarkable progress for a sport so “new”.

91 got a mention on PTI today. kornheiser was his usual curmudgeonly self, but at least they didn’t claim the sport was a fraud (because of lesnar’s wwe connections) as some were fearing.

by woooburn on Nov 17, 2008 7:25 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

The record high for PPV’s is just over a million. I think it was Ortiz vs. Liddell.

by steveoc24 on Nov 17, 2008 7:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

1.06 million, if I’m not mistaken.

by Luke Thomas on Nov 17, 2008 7:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

“Of the 15 biggest PPV events of 2007 in North America, UFC had eight, four for boxing and three for World Wrestling Entertainment.”

by DirtyML on Nov 17, 2008 7:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

How will we know the number of buys 91 did when Dana keeps his PPV buy rates private? I’m sure he will say they did over 1.2, but how do we know he’s not lying? I just don’t see him coming out and saying they did only 800-900k buys.

by steveoc24 on Nov 17, 2008 7:28 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

In Nevada, he can’t. It’s public information.

by Luke Thomas on Nov 17, 2008 7:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Not only that, for a show as big as this Meltzer will have estimates within a couple weeks.

by Michael Rome on Nov 17, 2008 7:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I said 850,000 before the fight and I’m stick with that. If my memory serves me correct, that should be number two all time behind Liddell-Ortiz II and ahead of whatever 3rd is – which I think is somewhere below 700k.

by dropkick101 on Nov 17, 2008 7:36 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I lied – Ortiz v. Shamrock III is currently no. 2, should be no. 3 after the 91 figures are released.

http://mmapayout.com/2008/10/inside-the-numbers-who-draws-on-ppv/

by dropkick101 on Nov 17, 2008 7:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I’m going to predict 625,000 buys.

by DirtyML on Nov 17, 2008 7:44 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

The most important thing

Other then the number of buys is the number of casual customers that are now fans.

That card was amazing to watch and I’m sure won over quite a bit of people.

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by achengy on Nov 17, 2008 7:53 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Sometimes I wonder if ESPN covering UFC is just a glorified business relationship. Sure, they featured UFC on a bunch of their programs before the event, but the follow-up coverage seems non-existant; I don’t get ESPN, but PTI is on TSN and today I didn’t hear them talk about the fight at all. I guess the real test will be how they cover the upcoming UFC PPVs, hopefully they won’t go back to ignoring the sport like they did (for the most part) after the UFC 71 hype circus was over.

Oh, and it looks like ESPN was at least a live venue sponsor for 91:

by smoogy on Nov 17, 2008 8:02 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I wouldn’t gauge ESPN’s coverage of MMA and the UFC off of what you see on PTI. While these individual programs on ESPN are surely told to definitely cover certain topics, I’m also sure part of what you see on these shows caters to the hosts individual specialties. It’s no secret that neither Kornheiser or Wilbon are big fans of MMA and, despite their jobs as journalists, aren’t even the least bit knowledgeable. Honestly, we don’t need guys who are going to mispronounce the names of fighters or talk about Kimbo Slice as a general stereotype for what MMA fighters are.

Jim Rome, on the other hand, has done an outstanding job of giving mixed martial arts and the UFC in particular just due. Anyone who turns on ESPN, at the least, knows what the UFC is at this point. We will benefit from increased exposure out of the mouths of people who have some idea of what they’re speaking about. Wilbon and Kornheiser are both self-professed old guys who miss the glory days of boxing. They aren’t anchors but are instead opinionated analysts. The only time we need to here them talk about MMA is if ESPN ever decides to televise a boxing purist vs. knowledgeable MMA analyst debate just so we can see them get shit on.

by dropkick101 on Nov 17, 2008 8:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It was mentioned briefly at the end of PTI. The PTI guys just aren’t fans of MMA at all but they aren’t ESPN they are just one of their many opinion shows. Getting on sportscenter is what to look for.

by who me on Nov 17, 2008 8:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

People need to stop treating espn like some bastion of journalistic integrity.

Most of the things they cover are only because of business relationships. When they lost their tv deal with the NHL, NHL tonight and the hockey coverage completely disappeared. When they got Nascar back, they came out with Nascar Now, and started shoving it down everyone’s throats. When they bought a stake in the Arena Football League, they started giving it more play than the WNBA.

It’s definitely a good thing to see mma on espn, but don’t expect them to start covering every event like this unless they work out some sort of arrangement with the UFC.

by Phildo on Nov 17, 2008 8:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think you’ve got a pretty good point. I would go one step further and say that most media outlets that derive their revenue from advertising push the products under their umbrella to a greater extent than ones where they don’t have a significant (financial) interest. For example ,the major networks use their morning shows to push their prime time programs. The coverage on ESPN helps a great deal, but I only think they’ll only go so far unless they enter into to some sort of partnership with the UFC. However, if MMA gets so popular that ESPN viewers demand it, the network will have to step up their coverage to some degree.

by Cannon Jacques on Nov 17, 2008 9:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

They weren't a sponsor, thats the MMA live taping area

They kept their blinding filming lights on during the entire Gurgel-Riley fight.

by Day Man on Nov 17, 2008 8:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Oh, gotcha

by smoogy on Nov 17, 2008 10:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The floor on this event is 8 and a quarter.

The better question is how will brock v Nog/mir do… especially after the tuf exposure.

It will do very well.

by mmalogic on Nov 17, 2008 8:26 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Personally, I’m more extremely interested in Lesnar’s next potential fight against one of these BJJ guys. I’d especially like to see him against Nog. I believe the exposure for Nog on TUF has been favorable. He just seems like a guy you want to pull for.

by Cannon Jacques on Nov 17, 2008 8:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think it’s pretty clear Mir has no chance, so the question of Brock/Nog on PPV is very interesting. If UFC used footage right, especially of the Sapp fight, and really got over Nogueira as a lovable comeback guy who can’t be stopped, it can be a monster. Unfortunately they haven’t done the best job of this kind of thing with a lot of foreign fighters.

by Michael Rome on Nov 17, 2008 8:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

alot has to do with Nog’s fight against Mir…

If it’s orgasmic then the shits will hit the fan.

by mmalogic on Nov 17, 2008 9:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The only chance Brock has against Nog is on the feet and at best it’s 50-50.

He’s already the biggest star But if he wins… the first “franchise” of MMA will be born.

by mmalogic on Nov 17, 2008 9:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Seriously. If he somehow beats Nog, Brock Lesnar’s star will rise to the point where he will be the biggest star in MMA bar none.

by dropkick101 on Nov 17, 2008 9:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yup. And let’s go one step further: if he STOPS Nogueira, he would achieve a status within and outside of the hardcore community no one has likely ever received.

by Luke Thomas on Nov 17, 2008 11:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Good lord, could you imagine if he does something that Fedor couldn’t do in two attempts? I think the mere possibility just made 14 Fedor marks pee their pants at the same time.

by Day Man on Nov 17, 2008 11:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That would be rather incredible.

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by Richard Wade on Nov 17, 2008 11:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Every other MMA site would spontaneously combust, leaving just BE standing alone.

by iiowyn on Nov 17, 2008 11:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Anti Lesnars would still find a way to discredit him.

by Ubernoober on Nov 18, 2008 12:06 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Its pretty easy

Nog’s best days are unquestionably behind him.

by smoogy on Nov 18, 2008 12:11 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

and they’ll say its unfair and lesnar should be in superheavyweight. or that he beat 2 aging stars. haha.

http://weoweoweo.deviantart.com/

by weoweoweo on Nov 18, 2008 1:23 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That’s a hard argument to make. He hasn’t lost a fight in over 2 years, and he’s been facing good competition. Plus, he’s only 31 and hasn’t sustained many serious injuries.

by Carl P on Nov 18, 2008 1:37 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I’m not really convinced he’s on the decline either. He did get drilled by that Herring kick, but who else but him could survive that? I expect him to utterly smoke Mir.

by Michael Rome on Nov 18, 2008 1:50 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Listen “getting old” is translation for he was using the juice while in pride and now he isnt…

He isnt getting old he just doesnt have the secret sauce and has to make do without it.

by mmalogic on Nov 18, 2008 3:11 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs

I think in the future Brock could become a very effective sprawl and brawl type of fighter. I don’t think Nog really has the power to KO him, and certainly can’t take him down, so it would be very interesting. I just forsee Brock rushing in off a punch, failing to finish, and then getting submitted. But yeah, if he managed to finish Nogueira it would be gigantic. It’s also very possible, Tim was close and so was Heath.

I think what we saw this past Saturday was the UFC equivalent of Wanderlei Silva vs. Kazushi Sakuraba in Pride. The emotion for the fight was through the roof, but the finish was decisive in a way that really signified a changing of the guard. Lesnar needs to get through Nog, which is a tall order, but after that he is a made man.

by Michael Rome on Nov 18, 2008 1:29 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

If Lesnar does get through Nog

then the debates are pretty much over entirely. Nog is one of the top five HW’s in anyone’s book, and usually he’s #2/3. He’s the tailor-made opponent to test Lesnar, with that ridiculous chin and superb defensive ground game using his BJJ.

And yeah, I don’t see any way Mir makes it past Nog.

There is no such thing as innocence, only degrees of guilt.

by misterjonez on Nov 18, 2008 2:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs