Will Followers of Professional Wrestling and Other Casual Fans Buy UFC 91?

Dana White estimated that UFC 91, headlined by Brock Lesnar and Randy Couture, will do approximately 1.2 million buys.  That's a pretty ambitious forecast, even from a gentlemen that never seems to undersell any aspect of his organization.  It's obvious that the battle between two of the promotion's most popular fighters will have to induce people that generally don't buy UFC events to buy Lesnar vs. Couture.  Within this group are enthusiasts of the sports entertainment genre - professional wrestling fans.  Lesnar, once a superstar of the WWE, has been touted as a bridge to these very fans since coming to the UFC. 

Kevin Eck, a pro wrestling blogger, contemplates the upcoming UFC event and its appeal: 

A growing number of wrestling Web sites are also covering MMA. In fact, just yesterday I received an e-mail from the Web master for marylandwrestling.com inviting me to take part in a new feature on the site – predicting the winners of UFC pay-per-views, beginning with tomorrow night’s UFC 91.

Speaking of which, the main event on that show is former WWE champion Brock Lesnar against Randy Couture. Lesnar and fellow ex-WWE superstar Bobby Lashley – who is scheduled to make his MMA debut next month – are the most recent examples of pro wrestlers who have ventured into MMA. Over the past 10 years, there also have been a number of fighters who have gone into wrestling.

I have never once considered checking out a UFC pay-per-view, but I have to admit that Lesnar-Couture has piqued my interest. Even someone as out of the MMA loop as I am knows who Couture is, and I am curious to see Lesnar compete in a legitimate fight against a strong opponent. I’m probably not going to watch the show, but I am at least thinking about it.

Thinking about buying an event for $44.95 is much different that actually pulling the trigger and buying it.  Certainly, the UFC is counting on these people to go beyond just pondering the purchase. 

I once thought that the UFC hype machine would fire on all cylinders in promoting Lesnar vs. Couture, but White and company really didn't exert much marketing effort between the main event's announcement and the week leading up to the affair.  Because of this and a less than stellar undercard, Ben Fowlkes and others are convinced that White's estimate will fall well short:

In other words, it's an outrageous claim. As with most such claims, it succeeds in getting attention for the man who makes it, but it isn't likely to come true.

White is betting on this fight's crossover appeal among pro wrestling fans, as well as among the existing MMA fans who have been eagerly awaiting Couture's return to action. With the intersecting storylines in this bout -- the ageless, prodigal champion against the flashy, beastly newcomer -- there's reason for optimism.

But the UFC's mistake is in pinning all its hopes on the main event, hoping fans won't notice the lackluster undercard. It's more like something you'd see on a boxing pay-per-view: one big fight, and the rest mostly filler. That's simply not the UFC at its best. It's the opposite of the strategy that got the organization to this point, one of stacking cards with compelling bouts like they've done with December's UFC 92 card.

That's why if UFC 91 doesn't live up to White's expectations (and it almost certainly won't) he can't blame Lesnar and Couture, but rather the mediocre lineup he's backing them with.

Many experts are of the belief that the main event sells the entire card.  This logic seems to shape events in the boxing industry.  While part of me would like to think that a significant number of consumers make buying decisions of this nature based on the total value of a product, it seems unlikely in this case.  What "hardcore" fan isn't going to tune into see Randy Couture, a legend of MMA, make his long awaited return against the physical anomaly that is Brock Lesnar?  How many people that don't normally tune into the UFC know many fighters beyond big names like Couture, Lesnar, or Liddell?

Success or failure, in terms of reaching the 1.2 million buy plateau, will have more to do with the effectiveness of the UFC's marketing for the event and the effect of macroeconomics on PPV purchases.  ESPN's increased coverage should give UFC 91 a lift, even if the UFC's own marketing hasn't been terribly aggressive.  But judging by the mediocre numbers posted by recent boxing efforts, a floundering economy may provide a headwind that deters many non-hardcore fans from purchasing UFC 91.  The actual event will have to deviate from the normal relationship with its preview show in order to achieve the buyrate that White is expecting, based on the ratings for UFC 91 Countdown.

Much like the main event, forecasting the number of buys for UFC 91 is complicated by a myriad of unanswered questions surrounding it.  At least some of the questions regarding the event and its participants should be answered at the conclusion of tonight's fights.