Gambling Spotlight: UFC 91

It's been over twelve months since we've had the opportunity to bet against Randy Couture.  Fortunately, we only have a little over 48 hours to wait before we get to find out if "the Natural" still has it or if Brock Lesnar plays the role of Father Time. 

Couture/Lesnar offers numerous talking points of interest.  Is Randy over the hill?  How will the year-plus layoff affect him?  Can he scramble to his feet if/when he gets taken down?  Can Brock go five rounds?  Will he even have to?  Does experience and intangibles overcome size, strength, and athleticism?

For as many uknowns that surround Lesnar, it should be safe to say that we know what his gameplan will look like.  He should come out and try to do the exact same thing he did to Heath Herring.  Threaten standing, shoot for the takedown, and then unleash patient ground and pound.

Couture, on the other hand, will probably attempt to bully Lesnar in the clinch with the ultimate goal of putting Brock on his back.  While this should be his best method to victory, I don't believe he will have the same success he found in his most recent fights.  Gabriel Gonzaga, in addition to lacking the wrestling credentials of Lesnar, has shown that he can be made to quit mentally.  Tim Sylvia, posing his own interesting size problems, doesn't have near the athletcism of an elite wrestler and has a bodytype that just welcomes a Greco-Roman expert.

One of the best arguments in favor of Lesnar is the empirical evidence we have against Randy in the form of the Barnett and Rodriguez fights.  It's fair to note that Randy was competitive in each fight, and both Barnett and Rodriguez, presumably, have a bit more to offer on their backs.  Still, those fights show that Randy has problems when he faces bigger guys that can grapple.  We've also witnessed Randy not having the best of abilities on his back, and I have little doubt that Brock will put him there at least a few times over the course of the fight.

All things considered, I do favor Brock here.  He threw Heath Herring around like nothing, and Randy will be significantly smaller than Heath.  Lesnar landed some absolutely atomic shots in that fight, and the fact that he didn't finish says more about Herring's gameness than Lesnar's finishing ability.

For all of Lesnar's shortcomings and inexperience, Randy has just as many question marks.  He's 45, he hasn't fought in a year, and his usual strengths (speed, conditioning, wrestling) are all severely dampered with Lesnar. 

I'd feel comfortable holding a Lesnar ticket up until -130, and can see there being some marginal value up to -150.  I feel Randy has enough ways to approach this fight that make him a strong underdog.  In the end, I believe we'll see a similar fight to Lesnar/Herring with a heightened chance of Brock finishing.

At UFC 87, I picked against Kenny Florian in his fight with Roger Huerta.  I thought Roger's forward, go-for-broke style had the potential to overwhelm Florian.  Instead, Kenny came in with a smart, disciplined counter style and took a convincing three round decision.

Stevenson could be described as Huerta 2.0.  He's a little better in most areas of MMA, a touch more disciplined, and a dash more passive.  The biggest mark against Huerta entering UFC 87 was his propensity to sacrifice position while fighting aggressively.  Stevenson fares better in the regard, though he will give up his back at times and ends up on bottom too often.  He's usually able to make up for that with the constant threat of an effective guillotine choke.  Florian, however, will be well aware of that and should avoid the submission.

Florian stands right around a -185 favorite.  Needing a 65% break even rate, I don't see much value here.  Take Florian if he hits -170, though.

The Tamdan McCrory/Dustin Hazelett fight comes as close to a Mortal Kombat Mirror Match as you'll find in MMA.  Both guys are tall and lanky, have ugly but effective standup, and use their height well.  Both have also looked good in recent losses as McCrory's size gave Akihiro Gono fits and Hazelett arguably took round one before being finished by Josh Koscheck in the next frame.

I believe Hazelett, who has shown great improvement in every fight, will be the stronger, more physical fighter.  He'll use that strength advantage to bully McCrory around the Octagon.  Expect a lot of clinch work, with Hazelett dirty boxing to set up takedowns.  Hit up Dustin for a unit here.

I can find zero video on Hendricks outside of a minute KO of some bum from a couple years ago.  Suffice to say, I don't want to offer a play here.  Still, I will say this.  Gabriel Gonzaga has incredible talent.  His jiu-jitsu is outstanding (especially at heavyweight) and he hits very very hard.  Based on his build and his skills, he should be a top fighter. 

Unfortunately, it's hard to get over his lack of mental game.  Not only did he quit in the Couture and Werdum fights, but he abandoned a very easy strategy in the Werdum fight when he stopped attacking Werdum's lead leg.  There's no reason Gonzaga shouldn't take this fight walking away, but with Hendricks coming out of a camp that has already beat Gonzaga once, it wouldn't shocked me if it happened again.

Unlike Joe Rogan and Mike Goldberg handing out the term like creepy guys in vans with candy, Demian Maia is "world-class" on the ground.  Maia is a very dynamic jiu jitsu player who is constantly a threat if the fight hits the floor.  Quarry, meanwhile, relies on the big power shot.  He's slow and lumbering, and that was before back surgery.

Quarry might be able to defend Maia's takedowns, but I think Maia will be able to find a way to bring the fight to the floor.  From there, it's more or less academic.  Maia's good up to -250 here.