The much anticipated UFC 91 is just around the corner.  I see a lot of opportunities on this card, but I'm very nervous as to how things will play out.  I made some questionable early bets leading up to the fight, so I'm hoping the event isn't a total bust on my part.  Here are my plays for the evening:

Couture vs. Lesnar, $2.30 on Lesnar @ -115.  I made this bet very early, and as fight night draws near, I like it less and less.  Sure Lesnar has size/weight/strength/age/athleticism advantages, but he's still a rookie.  Michael Rome's post about Lesnar's lack of instincts is the best argument for Couture, and I think it is very true.  I truly believe that Herring underestimated Lesnar's skills in the standup.  Couture has seen glimpses of Lesnar's power and will not make the same mistake.  Couture is steadily becoming more and more of an underdog.  If his numbers hit +115 or better, I'm going to arb this out.

Couture vs. Lesnar goes over 2:30 of round 3, $8.10 to win $4.00.  This is another bet I placed early.  As time progressed and the odds on the over got better and better, I slowly added more money to the wager, and ended up with a wager of $8.10.  My rational was that neither Lesnar nor Couture has shown that much of an ability to finish a fight.  Couture's style doesn't lend itself to flash knockouts or submissions, and Brock certainly wasn't in any hurry to finish off Herring.  Also, I had read some interviews where Couture said his plan was to "not get hit" and step aside to avoid Brock's charge ahead mentality.  Although I still like the over here, I'm nervous that such a large portion of my bankroll is on this bet.

Mark Bocek vs. Alvin Robinson, $2.00 on Alvin Robinson @ EVEN.  I was never that impressed by Mark Bocek's wrestling, and I think Robinson is too big for him to push around for 3 rounds.  Both have excellent jiu-jitsu, but I think Robinson is just the better fighter here.  I'm not entirely sure why Bocek is a slight favorite.

Dustin Hazelett vs. Tamdan McCrory, $1.70 on Dustin Hazelett @ -170.  Hazelett is a great prospect in the welterweight division with VERY impressive jiu-jitsu.  McCrory also brings good jiu-jitsu to the table as well as an aggressive  stand-up game with a huge reach.  I was initially hoping McCrory would come into this fight as a huge dog, and I was surprised to find that Hazelett was favored by so little.  Hazelett's all around game is just a bit better than McCrory's.  My only worry is that Hazelett is very susceptible to getting hit by big shots, as shown in the Koscheck fight.  I ultimately think he'll be able to wrap up one of McCrory's lanky arms and get the submission victory.

Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Josh Hendricks, $1.85 on Gabriel Gonzaga @ -370.  People are down on Gonzaga after his losses to Couture and Werdum, but losing to the current champ and a former top contender is nothing to be ashamed of.  Hendricks doesn't have much going for him except a decent ground game, but Gonzaga is a monster on the ground himself.  Gonzaga takes this one easily.

Jorge Gurgel vs. Aaron Riley, $2.00 on Aaron Riley @ EVEN.  Again, I'm not convinced that Gurgel should be favored in this matchup.  Gurgel has a tendency to forget that his strength is his ground game.  If Gurgel wants to brawl, and its likely that he will, then Riley should win.

As you can see, I've taken quite a bit of action on this card.  Except for my early bets on the Couture vs. Lesnar fight, I feel pretty confident going into the weekend.  So far, I'm 20-21-3, down $10.15.  As always, comments and criticisms are welcome and encouraged!