The Case for Randy Couture: It's All About Instincts
by Michael Rome on Nov 14, 2008 10:11 AM EST
in MMA News
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Most expert opinion is moving in the way of Brock Lesnar now as the fight approaches. He's too big, too strong, too good of a wrestler, too athletic...and Randy is just too old.
There are so many key factors in this fight that it's impossible to address them all in one post, but I believe the deciding factor in this fight will be instincts. A great comparison is to look at how both followed up their knockdowns of Tim Sylvia and Heath Herring. Randy looked shocked at first, but immediately rushed in, landed several lefts, and took the back to try to get a choke. Brock Lesnar followed with...I don't know, a quarterback sack type maneuver. He ended up against the cage holding Herring in a headlock while he looked to his corner for advice and then figured out what to do.
The problem for Lesnar is his instincts aren't there. If Randy ends up on top in half guard, Lesnar is not going to be able to take 15 seconds, remember what to do in this situation, and then do it. He'll have to be ready to defend immediately, or he'll get pounded. I have no doubt Randy can recover and survive a bad shot, but for Brock, as soon as something goes wrong, I think it's over for him.
When Brock Lesnar trained for Frank Mir, he trained the escape to that leg submission thousands of times with great submission coaches. But in the heat of the moment, when Frank got it, Brock didn't even go for the most rudimentary of escapes. He felt the pain in his leg and just tapped. He panicked, and that is the kind of thing Randy Couture does not do.
If Randy Couture floors Brock and grabs his back, I have no doubt he'll easily grab a choke and finish, just because I don't think Brock will show the poise Tim showed that night. He will one day, but it's just too early. For Brock to win, he needs to finish early, or go a full 5 rounds without making a mistake. The latter is highly unlikely, so he needs to finish early.
I'm obviously not ruling out a Brock victory. If it turns into a pure wrestling match, it's Brock's fight. He could bust Randy's eye socket from the top and it will be over, he could catch Randy with a perfect punch...but the odds of Randy catching Brock with that punch are much higher.
In the end, Randy Couture is fighting a phenom, but the phenom is 2-1. He has never been punched in the face in a fight. He looked clueless in the clinch just 3 months ago. I believe Randy Couture will finish Brock Lesnar, and finish him early.
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Good to see a considered case laid out for Randy to win.
Gonna be a really interesting fight. And you could be right about Brock’s inability to react to situations. I know that for me, in wrestling, that was the biggest leap forward I ever made in competition. It’s one thing to know how to hit a Granby roll in practice, or even in competition when it’s obvious, but it’s quite another to hit it during a transitional maneuver at just the right moment. That’s instinct, for lack of a better word, and you seem to have correctly identified this as a weakness in Brock’s makeup.
There is no such thing as innocence, only degrees of guilt.
.....
Amen.
Brock is going to get pound out. Broken, bleeding and beaten. :P
"Men like me are like comets, destined to be consumed by lighting up their century"
- Napolean
by Kris McKillop on Nov 14, 2008 8:35 AM EST up reply actions
A big question here is going to be how much Randy’s year off hurt him, he should be able to win this fight if he can control it but he’s going to need to be on the top of his game.
the case for Brock..
Randy is 45 years old, 50+ lbs less against a guy with the same skillset, has many real life distractions, hasn’t fought in over a year, has no KO and one submission in 10 years, and so on. You’re hyping this fight more than Dana White, and it’s obvious why.
As I’ve pointed out in the past, it serves the Brockwagoners interest to talk this fight up as a big test. Keep that in mind whenever the Brock marks yap about how great Randy is and poor Brock is so inexperienced.
Now, when Brock crushes Couture, go ahead and write that “This proves Brock’s legit!” that I’m sure you already have stashed away somewhere, or re-use the one you wrote after the Herring fight.
I’m also behind the Kennedy assassination.
by Michael Rome on Nov 13, 2008 5:25 PM EST up reply actions
Now, now, Rome.
Don’t be like that..you know that was a team effort, and you need to give the rest of us the credit we so richly deserve.
There is no such thing as innocence, only degrees of guilt.
So that’s what JFK was supposed to be about.
Ever tried. Ever failed. No matter. Try Again. Fail again. Fail better. -Samuel Beckett
by Scott C. Broussard on Nov 13, 2008 5:29 PM EST up reply actions
Riiiggghhtt
You’re not a Brock mark at all. You didn’t write this, “Nobody can doubt Brock Lesnar anymore. In his third ever MMA fight, he beat the crap out of Heath Herring.” Change the name and you won’t have to waste time on Sundays article.
Right, Brock mark. I don’t think anyone can doubt Lesnar’s legitimacy as a fighter, obviously I didn’t mean nobody can ever doubt him in any fight.
I think he is very good and will be great. I don’t think he can beat Randy Couture.
by Michael Rome on Nov 13, 2008 5:39 PM EST up reply actions
You’re good for a laugh each time to bring up this conspiracy theory, mythbuster. Thanks…again ;)
There is no such thing as innocence, only degrees of guilt.
:P
I remember our ‘discussions’, when you all but called Brock a god. So yes, I find it very surprising how you went from, what was it.. Brocks amazing agility and unmatched strength, to his utter lack of experience and can’t win.
Read my posts, little one.
I’m picking Brock to win the fight. But he’s got a lot to prove, and I’m not delusional about where he is experience-wise.
He does have amazing agility, and outside of Carwin, unmatched strength in the UFC. How many times have we seen simple physical tools nullified inside the octagon? Too many to count. I still think Brock’s going to beat Randy, TKO stoppage in the 2nd. But this is such a close fight that I’m not going to be deflated or elated either way.
There is no such thing as innocence, only degrees of guilt.
I’m picking Brock to win the fight. But he’s got a lot to prove, and I’m not delusional about where he is experience-wise.
Well then, good to see. If this is true, then you’ve come a long way since our last discussions regarding Lesnar.
I dunno about that. My position is the same as it has been: that Brock is a world-class athletic freak of a human being, who has the perfect background for high-level MMA competition, and has proven that he belongs in the upper echelons of competition right now. None of that has changed.
Neither has the fact that his bottom game, chin and long-distance cardio are still unproven. That’s a lot of unproven facets to his game, at least if he’s supposed to ascend to the top of the division and sport.
So yeah, he’s still got a lot to prove. And he does need to get more experience. But he’s still going to win.
There is no such thing as innocence, only degrees of guilt.
I absolutely agree that he’s going to win. We don’t differ there. I also think he would ebat Ken Shamrock and Mark Coleman, so.. take that for what it’s worth.
Maybe where you and I differ is that I think this is a 55-45 match or at most
60-40 in Brock’s favor. And if Randy wins, I’m not going to be deflated at all about Brock’s future prospects, nor will it change my opinion of Randy. This has the potential to be a really fantastic fight, and I’m not letting my ‘homerism’ or whatever get in the way of that.
As for Shamrock and Coleman..dude, Penn would beat Shamrock right now, and Coleman would get destroyed because he never successfully answered many of the questions put to Brock, plus he’d be spotting him a decade and 50lbs.
There is no such thing as innocence, only degrees of guilt.
Skillset?
I’d say comparing their skillsets is a very loose comparison. Brock is a traditional wrestler where Randy’s game is Grecco Roman. The clinch positional control is completely different from the top control on the mat.
This fight is a big test for Brock, he’s going up against his hardest opponent yet. It’s not going to get easier. If he somehow manages to win, he’ll be doing his first title defense, going against Mir/Nogiera. One is a guy who has already beat him, the other guy is a fucking legend.
Brock will not Crush Couture. He couldn’t even crush Herring, half the fighter Randy is.
"Men like me are like comets, destined to be consumed by lighting up their century"
- Napolean
by Kris McKillop on Nov 14, 2008 8:38 AM EST up reply actions
Nice arguments for a Randy win. Unfortunately, the only real factual statement in a sea of one sided opinions is this: “He’s too big, too strong, too good of a wrestler, too athletic…and Randy is just too old.”
"The problem for Lesnar is his instincts aren’t there. " Really? Do you really know that?
" I have no doubt Randy can recover and survive a bad shot, but for Brock, as soon as something goes wrong, I think it’s over for him." Really? You really think Randy can take a punch from Lesnar but not vice versa?
“He panicked, and that is the kind of thing Randy Couture does not do.” Really? You know this because?
“If Randy Couture floors Brock and grabs his back, I have no doubt he’ll easily grab a choke and finish, just because I don’t think Brock will show the poise Tim showed that night.” Really? You think Tim has better poise than Lesnar who has dominated every single fighter he has fought?
“For Brock to win, he needs to finish early, or go a full 5 rounds without making a mistake. The latter is highly unlikely, so he needs to finish early.” Really? Randy can make mistakes and beat Brock, but Brock has to be perfect to beat Randy?
“but the odds of Randy catching Brock with that punch are much higher.” Really? Has Brock shown anything to show that this statement is close to true?
" He has never been punched in the face in a fight. " And this is a negative because? Since he’s never been punched, is it not a testament to his ability to escape injury rather than sure proof that he will crumble at the first punch?
Biased much?
This is pure Houston Alexander logic. How can we doubt his jits? He’s never been there, he could be a black belt! I know he got knocked out bad by Brett Rogers in practice and they threw Rogers out of camp for it.
by Michael Rome on Nov 13, 2008 5:36 PM EST up reply actions
Also, all opinions are one sided. That’s kind of the point.
by Michael Rome on Nov 13, 2008 5:37 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I wasn’t really attacking your opinions. I thought you were posting an argument for why Randy will win. Had it been a fair and balanced view, with PROS and CONS for why both are dangerous, then ending with “I think Randy will win because despite all that…” your argument would be substantive. But it’s too one sided to be taken seriously.
Oh how I wish you’d take me seriously. I think Randy is going to win for this reason. If I hashed out every advantage and disadvantage for each fighter it would be a 12 page article, this is an article about the instincts and why I think they will decide the fight for Randy.
by Michael Rome on Nov 13, 2008 5:40 PM EST up reply actions
I thought that was just a Sherdog troll and completely debunked.
by Michaelthebox on Nov 13, 2008 5:45 PM EST up reply actions
I did get an email from someone in the Rogers camp saying it was true. Of course, I know Brock has been KO’ed in practice by many guys.
by Michael Rome on Nov 13, 2008 5:48 PM EST up reply actions
Do you have a source or is this from a friend of a friend of a friend? This would be something that would change the betting line so if there’s no source, why bring it up?
It wouldn’t? As far as the public knows, Brock has a solid chin. The fact that he got “KO” twice in PRACTICE of all places (what, did he pull a Kaplin?) doesn’t change the bets? If I know that Brock has a glass chin, I would change my bet toward Couture in a heart beat.
There have been reports by both Sylvia, Imes and Rothwell that Lesnar doesn’t take well to striking and had been dropped often in practice. The veracity of the charges are a matter of debate, but any competent oddsmaker should already know this.
So no new information. This rumor has been around since before the Mir fight. In the same breath, Sylvia claimed that Brock was not worth what he was getting paid and that he is a nobody in MMA. He also predicted that Mir would destroy Lesnar in the stand up. After three fights, no one has yet able to take Lesnar down let alone punch him in the face.
Considering Lesnar is at -125 vs Couture’s -105, the oddsmakers consider the “veracity” pretty thin.
'For Brock to win, he has to win early or a 5 round decision'
Why? Why not Brock by GNP in the 2nd?
by Derek Suboticki on Nov 13, 2008 6:05 PM EST reply actions
The second round is pretty early isn’t it?
by Richard Wade on Nov 13, 2008 6:11 PM EST up reply actions
Just saying those aren't the only two endings
This could easily be a TKO or cut in the third, too. But in all honesty, if Randy gets caught early like Heath did, I don’t think he gets back up.
by Derek Suboticki on Nov 13, 2008 6:16 PM EST up reply actions
I just don't see Randy getting caught like Herring did.
Maybe Brock can hit Randy like he hit Mir, with a shorter overhand right, that could put him on the floor..but Brock’s floor-shot of Heath was pretty telegraphed, at least to an agile guy like Randy. I think Brock’s quicker than Sylvia, but not leaps and bounds with his hands.
But I agree with you, if Brock smashes Randy’s face like he did Heath’s, Randy isn’t going to take it as well as Herring did.
There is no such thing as innocence, only degrees of guilt.
Thank you
This is by far the most intelligent and reasonable defense of how Randy Couture can win this. I have been picking Lesnar so far, but this post made some great points with excellent examples.
by SanDiegoMMA.net on Nov 13, 2008 6:50 PM EST reply actions
Brock can get subbed to. People act like because Randy does’nt make a habit of winning fight that way; that he has’nt been training bjj and submission grappling for 12 years as opposed to Brock’s 2. And to the guy saying how do we not know Brock Lesnar is’nt as poised as Tim Sylvia you just made an ass of yourself. Tim’ got like 30 professional fights BROCK HAS 3! Tim’s been hurt and recovered PLENTY of times BROCK HAS NEVER BEEN HURT! Stop acting like his physical superiority is going to enable him to just steamroll Randy because NOONE EVER really has! Randy is 9-1 when he is the betting underdog! My moneys on Randy Saturday night I can’t say how he wins but he will.
In pictures, Brock wins easily.
On paper, Randy wins easily.
This is the dilemma, imo.
Size-Huge advantage Brock.
Striking technical-Huge advantage Randy.
Striking power-Advantage Brock.
Submissions-Advantage Randy.
Submission Defense-Advantage Randy.
Wrestling-I would say even, but due to the size advantage, i have to give this to Brock as well.
Intangibles-Huge advantage Randy. Experience, handling of certain situations, etc…
For Brock to win, I think he will need to land a shot such as the one that Herring took. I think Randy should be looking to outwork brock on the feet and pull out a decison, unless he happens across a submission in a scramble.
My pick: I’m not a huge fan of either guy, but a weak win over a subpar opponent, a tapout to Mir and a bashing of Herring, leaves me with a lot of questions. i would say Brock has been just as unimpressive as he has been impressive. This could be a huge stepping stone in Brock’s career or it could be a speed bump. losing to Randy is nothing to be ashamed of, and that is what I think we will see Saturday. Randy by UD.
http://eliotmarshall.com/
I don’t see how anyone could be really confident in picking either guy. The thing that worries me about Couture is the fact that he’s been out of competition for a long time at his age. I believe the reports that he looks good in training, but it’s not the same. Who knows? Brock’s inexperience may end up biting him. This should be interesting.
Wait a second Brett Rogers dropped Lenar and got thrown out of camp for it? The Minnesota camp? Can someone confim this? If thats true its not only funny but says alot. It’s not a deal breaker because Rogers is no slouch and is one of the hardest hitting HW out there but it still says something about Lesnar’s chin especially if it was with 16’s and headgear and thats how most gyms spar standup or atleast my gym does.
Or I guess it could be the 8 oz mma gloves that are designed specifically for training. Really it makes a big difference. It’s not that big of a deal if that were the case and if not, and he dropped him with 16 oz gloves on while they were wearing headgear it meens one of two things. Either Lesnar has a suspect chin, or Rogers hit him pretty much with most if not all of his power which would definitely constitute being thrown out of camp. Sparring is more technique then actually fighting and going 100 percent is both dangerous and dick! Your not supposed to try and hurt your partner it’s just to get used to getting hit, get work in, reaction times, foot work etc.
Hey! I agree with Michael Rome! Sweet!
I think this fight is going to be won or lost in the scramble – and it’s in those moments that Randy’s instincts will win it for him. Brock’s wrestling training should give him the ability to take Randy down at will or get away from Randy if he gets taken down, but in those moments as the fight goes to the ground or to the feet, Randy will know when to punch and when to go for the submission.
One of the great things from BJ’s book of knowledges is his motto: ABC – Always Be Combining. Randy is a master of this stuff – punching as he backs out of the clinch, combining a takedown with an attempt to pass the guard. Brock just isn’t going to know what to do in these moments.
Also: I can’t stand Brock and I recognize that I’m not in any way impartial about this. I hope he gets his face bashed in. Cheers!
Don't believe a word I say, I don't train BJJ. -- TangleBones
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