UFC 91, Hit or Miss?

by Kid Nate on Nov 12, 2008 9:20 AM EST Comment 53 comments

MMA Payout is reporting that ratings for the UFC 91 countdown were weak:

MMAPayout.com has learned that the premiere of Countdown to UFC 91 on Spike drew only 537,000 viewers last night. That number is 11.7% below the average of 608,083 viewers drawn by the first twelve editions of the series this year. The program aired at 11PM EST in hopes of taking advantage of WWE Raw as a lead-in.

Based on MMAPayout.com’s formula for predicting pay-per-view buys based on Countdown viewership, UFC 91 would be expected to draw only 468,801 buys. While the actual pay-per-view number is virtually certain to be well exceed that projection, the rating is a troubling early sign for the UFC’s hopes of surpassing one million buys given the past strong correlation between Countdown viewership and pay-per-view buys.

BE's own Michael Rome warned about the strange underpromotion of this event last week. Looks like he might have been on to something. Dana White is on the record saying this will be the biggest UFC PPV in history. I hope Dana's right, but the indications are ominous.

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Its not looking good

Tickets to the event are selling below face value on ticket reselling sites like stubhub which never happens.

by Day Man on Nov 11, 2008 10:13 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Not sure what to think here. I know a lot of people are talking about it, so I guess we’ll have to wait and see.

I would think that if Lesner vs Randy in UFC doesn’t go nuts, then the market for Fedor vs Randy would be even lower.

http://eliotmarshall.com/

by BJJDenver on Nov 11, 2008 10:18 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Spike is currently (9pm cst) airing a GREATEST KNOCKOUTS show and guess what the first highlight was? Chuck knocking out Randy.

I mean seriously…

by Simco on Nov 11, 2008 10:19 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

OMG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1

Burn down the station!!!!!!!!!!!

by banter on Nov 11, 2008 11:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Take marketing class then comment.

by Simco on Nov 12, 2008 12:34 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I get the point but I don’t think that the UFC has control over when their content is aired on Spike

by Day Man on Nov 12, 2008 12:36 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

They should have added Rampage/Silva. That fight right there is atleast 250k.

by steveoc24 on Nov 11, 2008 10:32 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Yea, thats why my friends and I were so excited to go. We thought it would be two amazing fights that we wanted to see. As it is now I think the fights have the potential to be really good fights they are just lacking in name and star power.

by Day Man on Nov 11, 2008 10:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Isn’t Countdown usually on Tuesdays? I believe it is, which could explain why many people missed it.

by mythbuster on Nov 11, 2008 10:49 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Hmm, I wonder if you’re on to something. I was really surprised to see it on last night, I almost missed it.

by LiuLang on Nov 11, 2008 11:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I know the game wasn’t that interesting last night, but the end was exciting, so I’m sure a lot of people were watching football.

MNF usually beats everything on Monday nights, the change in day should definitely be factored into their secret formula.

by Phildo on Nov 11, 2008 11:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Is this really an issue with DVR and Tivo? I don't know anyone that doesn't DVR shows in advance.

by lbk on Nov 11, 2008 11:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I can't - only people with the specail cable boxes can.

Ever tried. Ever failed. No matter. Try Again. Fail again. Fail better. -Samuel Beckett

by themachiavellian on Nov 11, 2008 11:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I was planning on setting the DVR on Tuesday morning like I usually do. Didn’t even know I’d missed it until I read online it happened Monday night.

by Kid Nate on Nov 12, 2008 8:07 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

just had a chance to watch it

so pumped, and wishing today was saturday. i’m starting to come around to the randy’s-been-here-before side. no matter what, i’ll be pulling for him to win it. if he does lose, i’d love to see them put together liddell/couture 4… maybe at ufc 100.

by woooburn on Nov 12, 2008 11:51 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I never want to see Randy fight Chuck again – I almost wept last time they fought

"My job is a decision-making job, and as a result, I make a lot of decisions." --George W. Bush, The Decider, Lancaster, Pa., Oct. 3, 2007

by lovingmma25 on Nov 12, 2008 12:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

LOL. I agree. do 4th fights even happen? I think 3 is the acceptable limit.

by lbk on Nov 12, 2008 1:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Three is more than enough in the case of Randy and Chuck. I will admit that I wouldn’t mind watching St. Pierre destroy Hughes again.

"My job is a decision-making job, and as a result, I make a lot of decisions." --George W. Bush, The Decider, Lancaster, Pa., Oct. 3, 2007

by lovingmma25 on Nov 12, 2008 1:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Didn’t they also show it a little earlier in the week than normal? It caught me unaware and I didn’t get to see it myself. I think the guesstimation is a little off on this one.

by Tommy7 on Nov 11, 2008 10:50 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I think it is going to underperform what Dana and the UFC claim. 850k is my guess, though I would not be shocked if it drops as low as 700k.

I think the UFC underestimated the importance of having a good undercard to drive sales through the roof. A lot of event sales is driven by good word of mouth and overall excitement, and the embarrassingly weak undercard created a negative feeling about the overall card that could have been avoided just by adding something like Gonzaga vs. Kongo.

by Michaelthebox on Nov 11, 2008 10:59 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Paying Randy and Brock as much as I’m sure they are, they probably decided against stacking the card too much. It’s always good to hedge your bets.

by Tommy7 on Nov 11, 2008 11:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe that was their thought process, but if that thought process costs them 250k buys, they’ll need to learn better.

by Michaelthebox on Nov 11, 2008 11:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

And when you say “stacking the card too much” you completely misrepresent the issue. They didn’t stack the card AT ALL. Even a little bit of stacking would have avoided the negative feeling present right now. But that undercard is hilariously weak.

by Michaelthebox on Nov 11, 2008 11:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I can’t speak for everyone, but I for one don’t have any negative feelings towards ufc 91. Sure it’s not stacked like 92, but it will have plenty of buys. The promoting has been subtle but effective. It’s on the radio, espn, ect. Then I think they have a few decent names. I’m interested in the Stevenson vs Florian fight. Maia vs Quarry should be a great fight. Hopefully we’ll see Alvin Robinson fight. And while it might not be the toughest test, I look to see how Gonzaga looks. The show has to be cost effective and still draw a large crowd. We’ll see how it does. I might not see 1.2 but it will exceed 800k. I for one would like to know what Randy’s ‘complete’ new contract gives him.

by Tommy7 on Nov 11, 2008 11:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

If we’re sitting around pretending that Alvin Robinson/Mark Bocek is PPV quality, I think we’re into the realm of just about anything under the UFC banner being such. That fight is barely a step above than what I’d expect on an average Palace Fighting Championships card.

by D.Capitated on Nov 11, 2008 11:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Dead on.

"I'm ready. It doesn't matter with who or where. On foot or on horseback. With maces or poleaxes. To fight. To first blood or to death. It doesn't matter, I'm ready to fight." -- Александр Емельяненко

by BlazinSkunk on Nov 11, 2008 11:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Bocek and Robinson are both skilled fighters who’ve never had a boring fight in the UFC and have shown flashes of brilliance. They may not ever make it to the top level in the UFC, but if you aren’t interested in watching them fight you should probably be following a different sport.

by George Lucas on Nov 11, 2008 11:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I’ll gladly watch them fight, but will the average fan who’s probably never heard of them? PPV quality also means they’re draws.

Ever tried. Ever failed. No matter. Try Again. Fail again. Fail better. -Samuel Beckett

by themachiavellian on Nov 11, 2008 11:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I doubt anyone is buying a PPV just to watch Robinson/Bocek, I was just replying to the people who were shitting on Tommy7 just because he’s excited that they might get televised.

Bocek/Robinson is a very solid undercard fight, and I’m guessing it will be a better fight than the main event.

by George Lucas on Nov 12, 2008 1:28 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

So what? You can say this about 20-25 guys that were in the IFL or an endless number of meaningless boxers toiling in PPV undercards for HBO or Top Rank. Ornelas/Rubio wasn’t such a bad fight on the Hopkins/Pavlik undercard. You mean that was a STACKED CARD~ now?

by D.Capitated on Nov 12, 2008 7:19 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I can’t see anyone on any other fight being a draw to a casual fan.
Even most “real” fans are probably only interested in half of the card.

by Simco on Nov 11, 2008 11:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It’s def missing another big name or 2. I am psyched for the night though so I don’t care what kind of #’s they do. They will be fine either way.

i think they may see some fallout from the last SUPER weak card with that horrendous Silva/Cote main event. Thinking some people are feeling burned there.

by lbk on Nov 11, 2008 11:20 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I don’t think it is going to do the 1.2 that Dana thinks, but I do think it will hit 700k or so.

by Lynchman on Nov 11, 2008 11:31 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Kid Nate: “Dana White is on the record saying this will be the biggest UFC PPV in history. I hope Dana’s right, but the indications are ominous.”

Why do you care if a completely underwhelming UFC card breaks a million buys? I hope this event tanks and they start giving me my $45 worth.

by BlazinSkunk on Nov 11, 2008 11:37 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

My theory is that this is part of Zuffa’s plan to end Randy Couture once and for all. They don’t just want Randy to lose embarrassingly to a guy who’s not a good fighter, they want him to lose in relative obscurity.

They’ve basically headed off any chance of Couture vs. Fedor already, but an unwatched, lackluster loss to Lesnar would crush any other extracurricular ambitions Couture might have.

by George Lucas on Nov 11, 2008 11:41 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Break out the tin foil caps people!

by BlazinSkunk on Nov 11, 2008 11:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

They have little to no reason to self-sabotage themselves that way. If Couture wants to be a movie star after his UFC run, why would they care? They’re not going to cost themselves millions of dollars just to put a minor dent in his post-UFC ambitions.

by Michaelthebox on Nov 11, 2008 11:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I’m sure they’d be fine with Randy’s movie ambitions. They just want to end his fight career ASAP, and score as much money with as little investment in him as possible.

by George Lucas on Nov 11, 2008 11:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

And why would they want to do that? He’s still a moneymaker for them.

by Michaelthebox on Nov 12, 2008 12:00 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Because until just a couple months ago, he was the lynchpin of their #1 competitor’s success. They don’t want to risk him going rogue again.

And if this PPV fails, they can claim that he’s not actually much of a moneymaker anymore, giving Zuffa even more leverage to keep him out of everyone’s hands.

by George Lucas on Nov 12, 2008 12:04 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

No offense, but thats silly. The UFC won. He’s under a brand new contract, and if he tries to break it, they’ll just go through the exact same icing process. At this point, even if he tries to go rogue again, it’ll be another year of waiting for him. Randy is somewhat deluded about the workings of the world, but he’s not a complete and total idiot, and at this point, going rogue right after signing a new contract would be the business equivalent of taking several million dollars and setting it on fire. He doesn’t need that, and the UFC isn’t going to burn several million dollars just to stop him from getting the opportunity.

by Michaelthebox on Nov 12, 2008 12:13 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

If they wanted that they would have put him in with Big Nog..

by lbk on Nov 12, 2008 12:03 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I agree with George Lucas

I think 91 is Dana’s way of putting Randy away forever. He hopes that Brock destroys Couture and can become a new ‘face’ of the UFC. Then he’ll challenge another legend in Nog and hopefully beat him too.

I would favour Randy more against Nog then against Lesnar.

by rainmaker6 on Nov 12, 2008 1:15 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Great post title

by Day Man on Nov 12, 2008 2:36 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed.

There is no such thing as innocence, only degrees of guilt.

by misterjonez on Nov 12, 2008 12:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Bars showing the UFC?

How do they account for this in the final ppv buys? The bar I go to has a max. occupancy of about 1,500 people. Does that count as 1500 buys?

by tanner4life on Nov 12, 2008 10:20 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

uhh…no it counts as 1 buy. I think the buys will dip a little bit, but in my circle of friends as well as many other wrestling circles out there on the streets and in the internet wrestling community can’t wait to see this fight. I wanna see if Brock can break out by pounding Randy into dust or if he’ll become just another Kimbo.

by RxHeavenFC on Nov 12, 2008 11:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It can count as a few buys, though. Some bars aren’t able to split their wiring such that one line purchased can be shared throughout the bar. Often they have complicated set-ups where the bar has to order several different times to get all of their screens filled, especially when the bar is more than one story.

by Luke Thomas on Nov 13, 2008 10:42 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

So wouldn’t that lead to very deceiving numbers? I used to watch it with just a few friends in a house because there were no bars near us that showed the fights. But as MMA continues to grow there are more spots to watch-so rather then order it ourselves we all go out and watch it in the city. I think across the country this could lead to very misleading numbers.

by tanner4life on Nov 13, 2008 11:52 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs