The $100 Experiment: EliteXC and Strikeforce

by Carl P on Oct 5, 2008 3:08 PM EDT

My public picks took a pretty bad beating this weekend, but that was all made up by the 14 second sideshow that was Slice vs. Petruzelli. Here's how the events played out:

Pete Spratt vs. Donnie Liles, $1.25 on Spratt @ -125. Lost $1.25. Not much to say here. I figured Pete Spratt would have enough power to put away Liles, but instead, he showcased his mediocrity once again.

Gina Carano vs. Kelly Kobold-Gavin, $1 on Kobold-Gavin @ +525, Lost $1. Kelly put up a decent fight, hanging in with Gina's pinpoint striking and even returning some nice shots. Unfortunately, her takedown attempts were pretty easily shrugged off, and Gina did a pretty good job of messing up Kobold's face. I don't think this was a bad bet. At +525, bookmakers only gave Kobold a 16% chance of winning this fight. Even though Gina was never really in danger, I still think Kobold wasn't getting quite enough credit from the books.

Ninja Rua vs. Benji Radach, $2.65 on Rua @ -265. Lost $2.65. In retrospect, this is really the only bet I think was a mistake. Rua's "Chute Boxe" style, wide open striking leaves him open to being taken out by other brawlers. I had figured Benji would have a case of ring rust, and Rua's diverse skillset would win him this fight. Instead, Rua took a few too many to the noggin.

My other play for the night was on Kimbo vs. Shamrock. When the news broke that Shamrock was "hurt", I was pretty disappointed. Kimbo was my main play for the weekend, and I felt confident that Ken would get knocked out. When I heard Seth Petruzelli was stepping in, I expected the lines to open up closer to even, as Seth is actually not just a washed up can. Unfortunately, I didn't get on Seth on my Bodog account, which is the only account for which I publicize my picks for the purpose of the experiment, but I did manage to place a sizeable wager on him at Bookmaker @ +350, which more than made up for all my losses. This is a perfect example of how soft MMA lines are right now. Kimbo had no business being the favorite here. I'm surprised the oddsmakers here didn't pick up on that. There are 2 possible scenarios: (1) The books didn't bother to handicap this fight -- they slapped a number on and waited for money to pour in, or (2) TONS of public money poured in on the Kimbo side, and the books, wanting to hedge their risk, pushed the odds way up on Seth. Either way, anybody with a more than casual knowledge of the MMA world should have seen this as an opportunity for a huge payday.

My Bodog account is currently 16-15-2, down $5.15.

The FanPosts are solely the subjective opinions of Bloody Elbow readers and do not necessarily reflect the views of Bloody Elbow editors or staff.

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I have said this time and time again, the lines for MMA are not as soft as people make them out to be. Is there room to make money, sure, but that is the nature of sports betting. In some cases the odds makers set the line, not they way the fight is likely to go, but the way the money will come in. If the books were loseing they won’t offer MMA betting and they would be looking to hire a new expert. When the lines move its because they have done a miscalculation balancing there risk and they money is heavy on one side. If you ask a pure handicapper, they would tell you they would never move the line and let the money come in heavy because there line is the right one. It not about setting the right odds, it also about gauging public odds on where the money is going to come in. In the case of Kimbo Slice, the later played a bigger factor on such short notice and that is what produced the hole. I also cleaned up on Petruzelli. Also won on Radach and AA.

by szucconi on Oct 5, 2008 11:58 PM EDT reply actions

“If you ask a pure handicapper, they would tell you they would never move the line and let the money come in heavy because there line is the right one.”

The right line for a sportsbook is not always the most profitable one. The sportsbooks are out to make as much money as possible, and if that requires them to put out an inefficient line, then they WILL do it. This has a lot to do with public opinion, and when public opinion is not accurate, then it means soft lines.

MMA Sportsbetting Record: 16-15-2, -5.15u
Biggest Win: Marquardt vs. Kampmann, bet 5u on Marquardt @ -125. Won 4u.
Biggest Loss: Liddell vs. Evans, bet 9u on Liddell @ -260. Lost 9u.

by Carl P on Oct 6, 2008 5:25 AM EDT up reply actions