BloodyElbow.com Staff Predictions for "EliteXC: Heat", CBS Saturday Night Fights

MAIN CARD

Luke Thomas: My opinion on this matter is well known. There is no physical reason on earth Slice should lose this fight. Shamrock wasn’t even able to stand up to battered middleweights nearly three years ago. Despite the mediocrity of Slice’s game, there is no doubt it’s more than enough to stop Shamrock. But I am picking Shamrock, not because I think it’s likely he’ll win. Instead, I am picking him because EliteXC is trying to pass off grossly heavy-handed matchmaking to unsuspecting fans simply to stay afloat. It’s disgusting and abhorrent and I state openly I hope it backfires. Shamrock, by submission, round 1.

Kid Nate: Shamrock will get whupped again. Quickly and with little suspense or entertainment value. Slice by TKO in 1.

Brent Brookhouse: Kevin "Kimbo Slice" Ferguson vs. Ken Shamrock - With all the "we saw Kimbo exposed by James Thompson" talk people are throwing around as a reason Shamrock can pull the upset off you'd think they know something I don't.  Ken got jacked up by Buzz Berry and while Kimbo's power was proven to be a bit overstated when he couldn't put Thompson to sleep he still is a more dangerous threat on the feet than Berry.  I've also heard a lot of people point to Kimbo's cardio as a potential factor in the fight, but is anyone willing to bet on Ken's stamina?  When is the last time we saw anyone get taken down and beat on by Shamrock?  Look, if it goes to the ground Ken is going to go balls out trying to catch a leg.  However the only time it's going to the ground is when Ken goes limp after a Ferguson right hand.  "Kimbo" by TKO round 1.

Mike Rome: For all the smoke and mirrors, we all know what will really happen.  Ken is going to try to stand with Kimbo, and as soon as he gets hurt his entire gameplan will go out the window, and he will end up getting destroyed.  I'll be shocked by any other outcome.  Kimbo Slice via TKO, round 1.

Nick Thomas: Another gimme fight for Kimbo. I haven't forgotten that Buzz Berry KO'ed Ken with a glancing blow. Slice will do the same, easier and quicker. Slice by first round KO.

Chris Nelson: I can't recall another high profile fight in recent memory which made me this sad. (Maybe Sakuraba-Manhoef; at least Royce had a shot going into the Hughes fight, or so I thought.) Ken has made it all too clear in the run-up to this match that he knows he's at the end of his career, and it seems he's already lost the match in his mind. I fully expect this to go down the way everyone on the planet expects (and the way EliteXC needs) it to go. Ferguson via TKO, Round 1.

Jake Shields vs. Paul Daley

Luke Thomas: The odds I’ve read make Daley a good bet here. He has fantastic stand-up and very explosive power that should be more than enough to put Shields away provided he can land anything. That, of course, is the rub. Shields knows exactly what he needs to do to win and Daley isn’t the first striker he’s faced where the threat of knockout is real. Shields, by submission, round 1.

Kid Nate: Hoping for a good one here, but my brain tells me Shields will get the takedown and the submission pretty quick. Shields by submission.

Brent Brookhouse: Shields is on a roll and has looked fantastic in recent EXC fights.  There is something about Daley though.  He is very explosive and his striking is really sharp.  Also, Daley is a guy who was ready to retire because he just didn't have the passion any more.  I think he is a guy who needs to feel motivated...he wants to climb the mountain and in Shields he feels like there is finally a mountain worth climbing.  I'm going to take a very motivated Daley to pull off the upset here because I have such a soft spot for technical strikers.  Paul Daley by TKO in round 1. 

Mike Rome:  I like the match, but it's still a mismatch.  Shields is just too good where Daley isn't, and will only lose if he decides to try to show off his standing skills too much.  Jake is too smart, he'll get Daley down and submit him.  Shields via submission, round 2.

Nick Thomas: Grappler vs. Striker here. Sheilds is bigger, stronger, better and has never gone past the 2nd round in his last 5 fights. Shields by whatever.

Chris Nelson: The most competitive fight on the card, in my opinion. Shields' 63-second destruction of Nick Thompson on the last CBS show was phenomenal, and the fact that Daley is known for his sub-par wrestling would suggest that EXC is setting their newly-minted champ up for his first successful defense. But I've got to follow my gut on this one, which says the dynamic striking of a hungry "Semtex" will bring Shield's win streak to a halt at 10. Daley via TKO, Round 2.

Andrei Arlovski vs. Roy Nelson

Luke Thomas: Nelson is tough and a very underrated grappler, but a newly motivated Arlovski with Freddie Roach improving his best assets only makes Arlovski even that much more dangerous. Nelson is no pushover, but he’s not enough for Arlovski. Arlovski vs KO, round 2.

Kid Nate: Now we have a fun fight. Nelson is game but I expect Arlovski to dismantle and demolish him standing in 2. Arlovski by TKO.

Brent Brookhouse: I like Nelson a lot, but he just isn't at Arlovski's level.  Nelson is a guy who fits the mold of the guy Andrei was running through while champion (but with a strong chin).  This is not going to be anywhere near as close as everyone seems to think it is.  Arlovski is going to bust Nelson up for three rounds and take a decision.  Nelson will do a good job of hitting Andrei's fist with his head though.  Andrei Arlovski by decision.

Mike Rome: Poor Josh Barnett.  Affliction is paying for all the salaries in this fight so it is an expensive commercial, so to speak.  The goal is for Arlovski to look great, but I see this being a tough fight.  I would have picked Nelson if this fight was booked before the last Affliction show, but Arlovski seems motivated again, and I think he'll just be too much standing for the slower Nelson.

Nick Thomas: The IFL Champ has never fought anyone like Arlovski. Arlovski has won his last 4 fights and has proven that he's back. Arlovski + kicks, knees, speed, and accuracy = Arlovski by KO.

Chris Nelson: What must be going through Andrei's mind, swapping out his scheduled Affliction opponent Josh Barnett for the very aptly monikered "Big Country?" I hope it's not "I'm gonna take this pumpkin-bellied fool lightly," because for all his rotundity, Nelson does have a granite chin and has shown much improved wrestling since he started his run in the IFL. Still, it's hard to bet against the taller, quicker, more experienced Belarusian, who may need to eschew his Freddie Roach-honed boxing in favor of sambo for the win. Arlovski via Decision.

Gina Carano vs. Kelly Kobald

Luke Thomas: Kobald is strong and likes to bully opponets, but doesn’t have the technical tools to win. She closes the distance with no regard for her opponent’s striking and while larger than Rosi Sexton or Julie Kedzie, she won’t be able to muscle Carano around effectively. Carano by KO, round 2.

Kid Nate: Gina will kick the crap out of Kobold. Carano by TKO in 2.

Brent Brookhouse: Kobold is tough, and she'll use that toughness to manage to get off her stool at the start of the second round.  She will wake up a few minutes later.  Gina Carano by TKO round 2.

Mike Rome: Kelly has a good record, but it is mostly filled with wins over cans.  Gina actually had a full training camp for this fight, and I think she is going to win this pretty easily.  Kelly's standup is not all that great; I think Gina will beat her up badly. Carano via TKO, round 2.

Nick Thomas: This is Gina's set up match for Carano vs. Santos, maybe on PPV. Kobald is coming in with a year of ring rust. Carano will keep this standing and bang it out. Carano by TKO.

Chris Nelson: Kelly's a well-rounded fighter with powerful boxing and Minnesota MMA Academy-trained wrestling. I've always enjoyed watching her bouts and would love to pick her for the upset here... but Carano's range and vicious striking (as displayed against Kobold's training partner Kaitlin Young) is just overwhelming. Carano via Decision.

Benji Radach vs. Murilo "Ninja" Rua

Luke Thomas: This is a very good and close fight. Radach is heavy-handed good striker and a better wrestler than Rua. Rua is slightly more aggressive and has far better jiu-jitsu. The winner of this bout will be the one consistently tries to apply their strengths and gameplan from bell to bell. The one who counterfights will soon be overtaken. I respect Radach’s power, but not enough to follow through. Ninja by split decision.

Kid Nate: Should be a good one here. Ninja might be facing his last chance to be considered remotely a top fighter. Radach just might have a chance to climb the hill here. I'm picking Radach by TKO.

Brent Brookhouse: Picking Ninja fights is always tough because you're never sure which Ninja you're going to get.  I like Radach and think that at this point in time he needs the win more and seems a bit more "steady."  In a fight where it seems like somebody is probably going to sleep it goes to decision a lot of the time.  Benji Radach by close decision.

Mike Rome: Upset alert!  Both men have tremendous standing power and questionable chins, but I think Ninja's stubborn refusal to fight advantageously will cost him here.  Radach via TKO, round 2.

Nick Thomas: The most interesting fight on the card with Radach trying to get back on the winning track and Rua staying on it. Ninja should take this with experience. Rua by decision.

Chris Nelson: Both Radach and "Ninja" have explosive power in their boxing and Muay Thai, respectively, but both have shown cracks in their chins as well. After a feeling out period in the first, I see Radach taking this to the floor to try and pound it out, where the elder Rua will catch a submission from his back. Rua via Submission, Round 2.

PRELIMINARY CARD:

Luke Thomas: Takahashi is going to mauled here. She herself is an ancient journeyman who trains with nothing but other Japanese female journey…women? In any event, Cyborg’s aggression and clinch game is going to be her undoing. Cyborg by TKO, round 1.

Brent Brookhouse: Santos is a beast and will continue to look like a beast until she runs into Carano.  Cyborg by TKO round 1.

Mike Rome: Hey, what a stupid fight.  The goal is to build up a brutal monster to fight Carano, so they put her against someone incredibly hard to knock out in a fight that probably won't make TV.  Good thinking!  Anyway I think Santos wins via decision.

Nick Thomas: Santos by TKO.

Chris Nelson: Yoko has been in this a long, long time, and the woman can take a beating. But unless she catches the lady Santos with a quick submission, the Japanese veteran is in for a tough time in her return to the States. My first thought upon hearing of this match was that Yoko would grind it out and lose a decision, but yo... Cyborg hits hard. Santos via TKO, Round 1.

Edson Berto vs. Connor Heun

Luke Thomas: Heun is coming in on short notice and while tough, I don’t think his rubberguard game is going to affect the explosive Berto. Berto, by decision.

Brent Brookhouse: Heun by decision.

Mike Rome: Berto via TKO, round 1.

Nick Thomas: Berto by decision.

Chris Nelson: Heun looked impressive against the highly-touted Chute Boxe prospect Marlon Matias back in March. His decent Muay Thai combined with great submission skills should overwhelm the smaller (though more experienced) "Little Tiger." Heun via TKO, Round 2.

Seth Petruzelli vs. Aaron Rosa

Luke Thomas: What’s happened to Petruzelli? He has decent stand-up I suppose, but he’s been inactive and inconsistent. Rosa, if nothing else, has been active and is a known commodity. Rosa by unanimous decision.

Brent Brookhouse: Rosa by decision.

Mike Rome: Rosa via Decision.

Nick Thomas: Petruzelli by TKO.    

Chris Nelson: Rosa via Decision.

Lorenzo Borgomeo vs. Mikey Gomez

Luke Thomas: Borgomeo has very, very good submissions and Gomez is coming in off short notice. Borgomeo by submission, round 1.

Brent Brookhouse: Borgomeo by submission.

Mike Rome: Borgomeo via TKO, round 2.

Chris Nelson: Borgomeo via Decision.

David Gomez vs. Brett Jackowski

Luke Thomas: Jackowski is nothing to write home about yet, but Gomez is really nothing to write home about. Jackowski by TKO, round 3.

Brent Brookhouse: Jackowski by TKO.

Mike Rome: Jackowski via Submission, Round 3.

Chris Nelson: Jackowski via Submission, Round 2.

Jorge Bouchat vs. Nicolae Cury

Luke Thomas: Bouchat should have enough experience here to overcome. Bouchat by decision.

Brent Brookhouse: Cury by submission.

Mike Rome: Cury via Submission, Round 2.

Chris Nelson: Cury via Submission, Round 1.