Bloody Elbow October MMA Meta-Rankings: Heavyweight

by Kid Nate on Oct 27, 2008 2:58 PM EDT in MMA Rankings

Fighter	Points	Promotion	Last Rank
1. Fedor Emelianenko	450	Affliction/M-1	1
2. Antonio Rodrigo Noguiera	431	UFC	2
3. Andrei Arlovski	392	Affliction	3
4. Josh Barnett	389	Affliction/WVR	4
5. Fabricio Werdum	362	UFC	5
6. Tim Sylvia	350	Affliction/Adrenaline	6
7. Randy Couture	303	UFC	7
8. Gabriel Gonzaga	298	UFC	8
9. Mirko Filipovic	238	DREAM	9
10. Aleksander Emelianenko	201	Affliction	11
11. Ben Rothwell	174	Affliction/Adrenaline	10
11. Frank Mir	174	UFC	12
13. Alistair Overeem	163	DREAM	13
14. Sergei Kharitonov	139	DREAM	15
15. Cheick Kongo	113	UFC	14
16. Brock Lesnar	98	UFC	17
17. Roy Nelson	96	Affliction	16
18. Antonio Silva	83	EliteXC	19
18. Cain Velasquez	83	UFC	20
18. Jeff Monson	83	???	20
21. Heath Herring	82	UFC	18
22. Pedro Rizzo	77	Affliction	22
23. Marcio Cruz	72	WVR	23
24. Jake O'Brien	57	UFC	24
25. Mark Hunt	53	DREAM	25

Here are the October Meta-rankings. Please be aware that they were compiled before the most recent UFCs. So #6 Fabricio Werdum's high-ranking represents the consensus of the MMA online community before he got whupped by Junior dos Santos.

Obviously the fates of the EliteXC fighters are up in the air. Its looking like legal matters will keep them all off the free agent market for some time. This is another bad outcome of the EliteXC debacle.

The heavyweights are easily the thinnest of all the divisions. If you take a gander at the full charts in the full entry you'll see just how easy it is to get at least one site to rank you in the top 25. Ricco Rodriguez, Kevin Ferguson, and numerous other non-contenders find their way onto the listings. As did light heavyweight cum middleweight Gorjan Reljic.

Almost two years after they bought out PRIDE, the UFC is finally beginning to put together a top-notch HW division. The upcoming four man mini-tournament of #2 Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, # 11 Frank Mir, #7 Randy Couture and #16 Brock Lesnar should culminate in a clear-cut champ.

And with the emergence of #18 Cain Velasquez, Shane Carwin and Junior dos Santos, plus established vets #8 Gabriel Gonzaga, #15 Cheick Kongo, #21 Heath Herring and #24 Jake O'Brien the UFC can now be said to have a legit world-class heavyweight division.

Of course its highly unlikely that that the UFC champ will dislodge Fedor Emelianenko from the top of the rankings any time before late 2009.

And that's where the rest of the division is hanging on the fortunes of Affliction and DREAM/K-1 now that EliteXC is done for. Hopefully Affliction will at least get to put on the Fedor/Andrei Arlovski dream fight before going under.

We'll also have to wait and see what becomes of the EliteXC fighters. Maybe they'll re-emerge on CBS/Showtime. Maybe champ Antonio Silva will get to sit out his steroid suspension in contract limbo.

NOTE: The Meta-Rankings are not the subjective opinion of the BloodyElbow team, but rather a compilation of the rankings of over twenty leading MMA web sites. It is our opinion that these are the most informative MMA rankings anywhere.

Thanks to Richard for the charts above and his help in compiling this month's Meta-rankings.

Based on the premise that opinions are like assholes, everybody has one and they all stink. instead of putting up our own subjective fighter rankings, we compile and average the rankings of every source we could find online.

The goal is to show how the MMA community rates the fighters, not to bore you with our opinions.

Be sure and look at the points, they're a much more telling number than the ranking. There's clearly a huge gulf between the top 9 fighters and those that follow.

A total of 46 fighters were ranked in the top 25 by one source or another, for reasons of sanity I only track the top 25 (26 due to a tie) most highly rated fighters.

25 points are awarded for a first place ranking, 16 for a 10th place ranking, 1 for a 25th place ranking. A formula is used to "normalize" the data so all fighters are awarded points from those lists that do not include a full 25 fighters. Fuller explanation below.

Rankings were compiled from the following sites: WAMMA, Fighters.com, MMA Ratings, Fight Magazine, Total-MMA, Houston Chronicle Brawl Sports, MMA/VT, HDNet/Inside MMA, MMA Playground, FightMatrix, CagePotato, Sherdog, MMA Weekly, 411 Mania, TAGG Radio, FCFighter, MMA-ELO, and MMAFighting.com.

The normalization scheme as explained by JCS of FightMatrix is here:

The "normalization number" (new name) would be:

120
divided by
(Total Fighters Found in Any List minus 10)

Every fighter found somewhere else, but on a Top 10 list would be assigned this number.

The "normalization" number would not apply to a fighter not found on a Top 25 list. They would simply get 0.

So the process would be:

Do all of the Top 25 lists first, #1 = 25, #2 = 24…. #24 = 2, #25 = 1
Do all of the Top 10 lists, same scoring structure.. stops at #10 = 16

Figure out that normalization variable.

Fill in the normalization variable to all fighters not found in the Top 10 lists, but found elsewhere.

Do your totals and rank.

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Comments

Nice. I wonder how long it takes Richard to compile all of this.

Wow…someone ranked Mir #6?

That’s..um…odd.

by Tonley on Oct 27, 2008 12:45 PM EDT reply actions

OK, so technically these aren’t meta-rankings. The prefix “meta” refers to “one step above”, or of a higher, recursive class in epistemology, as in “the x of x”. Metahistory is the history of history (historiography). Metalogic is the logic of logic. A Top-10 list of Top-10 lists is a meta-list. Meta-rankings, then, would be the ranking of rankings, like 1)Sherdog, 2) MMA Weekly, etc. This is an amalgamation or synthesis of rankings. (Grammar Nazi, Achtung!)

Whatever the name, it is the single best ranking system out there. I wonder how far Werdum will fall.

Ever tried. Ever failed. No matter. Try Again. Fail again. Fail better. -Samuel Beckett

by Scott C. Broussard on Oct 27, 2008 1:18 PM EDT reply actions

that's the problem with having an educated readership

I knew sooner or later one of you wisenheimers would point that out.
And thanks for the compliment amidst the nitpickery.

by Kid Nate on Oct 27, 2008 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions

I Study Language and Philosophy

Meaning I’m supremely unemployable, but at least I can rationalize why.

It’s always fun to see the more absurd rankings – If Kevin Ferguson is #25, where is Petruzelli? How did Semmy Schilt make it when he’s fought twice in four years? Silly media and their “gotcha” rankings.

Ever tried. Ever failed. No matter. Try Again. Fail again. Fail better. -Samuel Beckett

by Scott C. Broussard on Oct 27, 2008 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions

Sylvia-lost 3 straight and yet remains highly ranked.
CC-Hasn’t done anything impressive in some time yet still in the top 10.
Jake OB and Mark Hunt-You see my point.

Not a statement about the Meta’s, just the ranking system as a whole. I think the problems are, a complete unwillingness to realize when a fighters long past performances carry no weight and the lack of depth at HW.

http://eliotmarshall.com/

by BJJDenver on Oct 27, 2008 2:34 PM EDT reply actions

I'd have to agree

The other factor that distorts the rankings is the influence the promotions have over the rankers’ minds — other than being included in the UFC mini-tournament, what’s Frank Mir done to merit being ranked?

by Kid Nate on Oct 27, 2008 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions

That is so funny you bring that up. I like Mir, but I was going to say I was surprised he didn’t come in the top 10, considering the hype around the upcoming UFC HW “tournament”. For some reason I didn’t include it??

Ditto for Brock.

http://eliotmarshall.com/

by BJJDenver on Oct 27, 2008 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions

one thing

Sylvia’s 1-3 in his last four fights with only two losses in a row. He beat Brandon Vera remember?

by Kid Nate on Oct 27, 2008 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions

For some reason I was thinking that was before Randy, my bad. Although considering what Vera has turned out to be, that isn’t much of a win.

http://eliotmarshall.com/

by BJJDenver on Oct 27, 2008 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions

Actually...

Sylvia has lost 3 of 4, Lost to Randy, Beat Vera, Lost to Nog. And Lost to Fedor. I realize your point…he lost to all bums and should be out of the top 20…GET IT THROUGH YOUR HEAD THAT JUST CUZ SYLVIA FIGHTS BORING DOESN’T MAKE HIM A WIMP! I’m so sick of all the Sylvia bashing on here. Nobody gives him respect for fighting top shelf guys, he may not be number one, but he deserves his spot on the list until he gets beat by a nobody.

by ANance on Oct 27, 2008 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions

Good points. Sylvia beats the guys he is supposed to beat. Losing to top five guys doesn’t mean you’re not top ten. It just means you’re not top five.

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by Richard Wade on Oct 27, 2008 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions

Sylvia’s losses: Randy Couture, Big Nog and Fedor.

If you’re gonna lose three straight, there are worse guys to do it to.

by Derek Suboticki on Oct 27, 2008 6:22 PM EDT up reply actions

Mir at 11 is a testament to the persuasive powers of the UFC Marketing Machine™

by smoogy on Oct 27, 2008 3:42 PM EDT reply actions

This division is stupid weak

You got fedor, then a drop off, then Nog, and then a HUGE drop off to AA

Everyone talks about how the MW division is weak, when this division is just awful.

Alex E is #10… who has he beaten that is worth a shit? Everyone good he has faced (werdum, barnett, crocop) has beaten him. He beat sergei..a nd thats makes him top 10?

Crocop is #9… he lost to gonzaga, and freaking kongo. And looked bad against overeem.

Gonzaga’s one kick lands him in the top 10… because he has done nothing before and after

Werdum gets the shit knocked out of him by someone not even ranked

HW’s are boring

by dbcb on Oct 27, 2008 3:46 PM EDT reply actions

I think its more a matter of no one having a compelling HW division right now

Although the UFC is moving in that direction and Affliction could potentially be there.
Remember it hasn’t been that long ago since the PRIDE heavyweight division was the marquee division in the sport: Fedor the Last Emperor at the top, Big Nog trying to climb the mountain again, Cro Cop looking like a monster, Barnett, Werdum, Sergei, Mark Hunt and Aleks all battling for contention.

by Kid Nate on Oct 27, 2008 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions

OK, instead of just whining, I decided to put my top 20 together:
1-Fedor
2-Nog
3-Barnett
4-Couture
5-Arlovski
6-Werdum
7-Overeem
8-Gonzaga
9-Kharitonov
10-Aleksander
11-Mir
12-Kongo
13-Rothwell
14-CC
15-Silva
16-Brock
17-Velasquez
18-Nelson
19-Herman
20-Monson

Notes:
It was really hard to put some of the guys as top ten, but there just is no depth at HW, so I had to.
I may have a man-crush on Overeem, but he has looked great recently and that is what matters to me.
I gave some consideration to who I think would win head to head, who they have beat, where they are in their careers and so on.
I will admit, putting together a list of HWs is very difficult and beyond the top 5, you could pretty much interchange a lot of these guys.

http://eliotmarshall.com/

by BJJDenver on Oct 27, 2008 4:32 PM EDT reply actions

We give you a top 25 and you insult us with a top 20?

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by Richard Wade on Oct 27, 2008 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions

Scratch that. Nate gave you a top 25, I provided a top 43.

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by Richard Wade on Oct 27, 2008 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions

You know, it got to be so ridiculous after about 15, that I was thinking I could have put about anyone in there. It is truly difficult to rank guys at that point. Respek to those that can!

http://eliotmarshall.com/

by BJJDenver on Oct 28, 2008 12:44 AM EDT up reply actions

I know what you mean. The heavyweight division (in particular) is painfully difficult to rank.

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by Richard Wade on Oct 28, 2008 2:09 AM EDT up reply actions

I got 25 for you

1. F. Emilianenko
2. Nogueira
3. Couture
4. Sylvia
5. Arlovski
6. dos Santos
7.Werdum
8. Gonzaga
9. Mir
10. Lesnar
11. Velasquez
12. O’Brien
13. Herring
14. Kongo
15. CroCop
16. Barnett
17. A. Emilianenko
18. Kharitanov
19. Overeem
20. Rizzo
21. Monson
22. Hunt
23. Rothwell
24. Nelson
25. A. Silva

by klown on Oct 28, 2008 2:18 AM EDT up reply actions

Barnett at #16?

esplane

by Kid Nate on Oct 28, 2008 9:39 AM EDT up reply actions

Second that.

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by Richard Wade on Oct 28, 2008 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions

And Overeem at 19 (damn my mancrush, lol)
And Dos Santos at 6??
Obrien at 12 with Cain at 11?

http://eliotmarshall.com/

by BJJDenver on Oct 28, 2008 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, there was sort of a lot of crazy in there.

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by Richard Wade on Oct 28, 2008 6:01 PM EDT up reply actions

good shot at it

for my dollar, FightMatrix has the best HW rankings.

by Kid Nate on Oct 27, 2008 5:13 PM EDT up reply actions

Dos Santos at six seems a little on the crazy side, but overall FM’s rankings are pretty good.

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by Richard Wade on Oct 27, 2008 5:27 PM EDT up reply actions

Sylvia doesn’t even make the top 20, eh? I’m not a fan of his — almost a Sylvia hater, in fact — but I’m not sure I’d still put CroCop in the top 15 Heavyweights given recent performances, and as much of a fan of Monson’s as I am I’m not sure he can beat Sylvia head to head. Good thoughts, though, while the rest of us just sit here and whine. ;-)

by Kierkegaard on Oct 27, 2008 5:31 PM EDT up reply actions

As someone that has seen Monson fight Sylvia, I’m pretty confident he can’t beat him.

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by Richard Wade on Oct 27, 2008 5:32 PM EDT up reply actions

My bad, that was an oversight on my part.

I would have him at around 10ish.

I also struggled to keep Silva on there, as it completely goes against my thoughts to rank a suspended fighter. Inevitably, the lack of depth made me keep him. I sold out, lol.

http://eliotmarshall.com/

by BJJDenver on Oct 28, 2008 12:46 AM EDT up reply actions

I agree about Monson, but this raises another point.

Lets say we have 2 fighters, A and B. Now A has a record of 20-7 and B has a record of 18-8, pretty comparable and let’s imagine they were against similar level competition. Now fighter A beat B in their only fight against each other, lets say a unanimous decision 2 years ago. Since that time, fighter A has gone 2-3 and fighter B has gone 4-1 with 3 straight wins, again versus comparable competition. Who do rank higher?

I would say fighter B, even though fighter A has beaten him. This is a problem with college football as well. You see a team like BYU, South Florida, Troy, etc get ranked pretty high sometimes, but you know that many of teh teams ranked behind them could beat them. I tries to figure this into my rankings, but as I said, it is actually pretty difficult.

http://eliotmarshall.com/

by BJJDenver on Oct 28, 2008 1:00 AM EDT up reply actions

College football doesn’t have that problem (or at least shouldn’t) since it’s all part of the same season. I think the best way to handle rankings in MMA is to similarly limit the fights you look at to a self-defined “season” or by weighting recent fights more heavily.

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by Richard Wade on Oct 28, 2008 2:11 AM EDT up reply actions