The $100 Experiment: UFC 90 Results

I've been incredibly busy this past week, so I didn't get the chance to do a preliminary write-up with my picks.  This event was full of some great opportunities that my bankroll only took slight advantage of.  Here's how the night went:

Anderson Silva vs. Patrick Cote, $6.50 on Anderson Silva @ -650, won $1.00.  I thought that this fight was a gimme.  Patrick Cote had absolutely nothing on Anderson Silva, and Silva showed it by clowning around for most of the fight.  It was quite a strange outcome, but it won me money, so I guess I can't complain too much.  I honestly believe that the true line for this fight was more around -800 to -900.

Josh Koscheck vs. Thiago Alves, $1.00 on Thiago Alves @ +135, won $1.35.  Going into this fight, I thought it was a toin coss between the two fighters, so either fighter at a positive number would be a good deal.  Most books had Koscheck as a slight underdog, but before I could jump on that, the line shifted very quickly to make him the favorite, so I instead laid a small bet on Alves.  After seeing Alves brutalize Koscheck for three straight rounds, I feel fortunate that I wasn't quick enough to lay a dollar down on Koscheck.

Those were the only two bets I had, but a lot of other fights had some great value, most notably, Fabricio Werdum vs. Junior Dos Santos.  The relatively unknown Junior Dos Santos was assigned a mere 14% chance to beat Werdum at +600.  After seeing Dana's vlog showcasing Dos Santos hitting some pads, people went nuts.  After seeing the weigh-ins where Werdum hardly looked like he'd been training at all, people went even more nuts.  The line on Dos Santos shifted all the way down to +400 territory.  Those lucky enough to put money on Dos Santos early were rewarded handsomely.

I came out of tonight modestly successful, going 2-0 and up $2.35.  Overall, I am 20-18-3 with my picks, down $6.06.