First off, I want to apologize if this article comes off as rushed or forced.  With back-to-back cards like this plus dealing with my "real" life, it's hard to find enough time to watch all the tape, figure out my picks, write analysis, etc.  As a result, I'm also just skipping the Santos/Werdum fight, but suffice it to say, I don't see any value on either side there.

On to the gambles...

Nate Marquardt couldn't figure it out.  Dan Henderson couldn't figure it out.  Rich Franklin couldn't figure it out twice.

Patrick Cote says he has it figured out.  I'm going to go out on a limb and question that statement.

This fight pits a largely one dimensional striker, who hits hard and has a solid chin, against one of the most versatile finishers in MMA.  If this doesn't sound familiar to you, I recommend checking out Anderson Silva's fights with James Irvin and Chris Leben. 

The fact of the matter is that Patrick Cote offers nothing that Anderson Silva hasn't seen and dealt with before.  To defeat a fighter of Silva's caliber, an opponent must be equally as dangerous in multiple aspects of the game.   Cote has heavy hands and better striking than either Irvin or Leben, but trading with Silva on the outside borders on insane.  He lacks the size, clinch game, wrestling, and offensive jiu jitsu to make this fight competitive.

The only scenarios that result in a Cote win include Anderson breaking his shin kicking Cote's face, Cote cutting him (I don't believe I've ever seen Silva cut), or Cote being wrapped in a cocoon since the Almeida fight and emerging as a beautiful fighting butterfly.

With Silva's chin, footwork, speed, and head movement, Cote will have to cross a moat, mount a brick wall, and storm a castle all by himself.  I don't like his odds.

Silva at -650 is a very very easy bet.  In fact, I bet this fight at odds upwards of -800 or so.  A more interesting wager would be whether or not this fight gets out of round 1 (I don't think it does).

With Diego Sanchez pulling out due to injury, Josh Koscheck steps in for what should be a steeper challenge for Thiago Alves.  Koscheck offers a much different dynamic to the fight, most notably his size and explosive wrestling. 

The best piece of video for either fighter is Alves' fight with fellow AKA fighter Jon Fitch.  Fitch controlled a largely one-sided fight with his wrestling and ground 'n' pound before putting away Alves with an upkick in round 2.  Fitch and Koscheck aren't clones of each other, but it's a good comparison regardless.

Alves, on the other hand, should look to take away Koscheck's base with leg kicks.  He has to set up his kicks with punches as to avoid Koscheck timing him and taking him down.  Alves' BJJ off his back is fine, but he should be doing whatever it takes to avoid being put there.

Koscheck will be able to do a better job with takedowns than Alves' last opponent, Matt Hughes.  Koscheck's striking is by no means outstanding, but it's miles ahead of the ineffectiveness Hughes brings on the feet.

And that's the crux of the fight right there.  If Alves can keep the fight standing and batter Koscheck with leg kicks, he will eventually find an opening and hit Koscheck with a clean enough shot to put him down.  However, if he gets stuck pressed up against the cage or on his back, Koscheck will take a decision.

This is one of the few fights where I can't confidentally go one way or another.  I'm leaning towards a play on Alves for a couple reasons.  1)  This looks like a pick 'em fight, so getting either fighter at a "+" number should be fine (and that goes fora play on Koscheck if you got him at a "+" number).  2)  I've stressed that MMA favors guys who finish, and Alves not only is a better finisher, but has more ways of finishing this fight. 

At +135, Alves needs to win roughly 42.5% of the time, and I think that's good enough for a one unit play.

Sherk comes off a humbling defeat to Lightweight champ B.J. Penn.  In that fight, Sherk used a puzzling gameplan of abandoning his wrestling base and allowing the fight to remain standing.  Penn picked Sherk apart before finally putting him away at the end of round three.

I expect Sherk to return to his bread and butter in this fight.  Use his solid, if rehearsed, boxing to set up his takedowns.  From there, exert a positional dominance while riding to a decision victory.  All while doing this at a breakneck pace.

Tyson Griffin is no slouch, of course.  He can handle the breakneck pace and has a four fight win streak over the solid mid-tear of the division.  He also claims to be the only man to have beaten 145 wunderkid Urijah Faber. 

However, I think Griffin falls just behind Sherk in all aspects of the game.  Most importantly, I think Sherk will be a bit bigger, a bit more explosive, and have a fairly big advantage in his positional jiu jitsu/top game.  In addition, Griffin has struggled with fellow wrestlers Clay Guida and Frank Edgar.

Needing an approximate break-even rate of 71%, I think you can lay a half or full unit here.  I might wait to see if the line dips back towards -200, however.

My initial recollection of the Maynard/Edgar fight was 15 minutes dominated by Maynard's size and wrestling.  However, after going back and rewatching the tape, Maynard really only controls the last round of the fight.  The fight was fairly even entering the final round, and Edgar looked to be getting the better of Maynard standing.

Maynard shouldn't have a size advantage in this fight (Maynard is listed at 5'8", Clementi at 5'9") as Clementi has fought at 170 where he recently defeated large prospect Anthony Johnson.  I think Maynard has a very bright future in the sport, but at these odds, there's too much room for the very veteran Clementi to exploit a weakness or capitalize on a mistake and end the fight.  Take Clementi for a half to full unit.

My Plays:

Anderson Silva -650 4.3u to win .67u
Thiago Alves +135 1u to win 1.35u
Rich Clementi +190 .5u to win .95u