The $100 Experiment: UFC 89 Results

by Carl P on Oct 19, 2008 8:59 PM EDT

UFC 89 was a pretty big disappointment for me on the gambling front. Here's how I did:

Sam Stout vs. Terry Etim, $1 on Etim @ +275, won $2.75. I decided to go with this fight based on the recommendations of many other people. I figured his long frame and good ground game could frustrate Stout. Etim came away with the decision, which made me very happy.

Akihiro Gono vs. Dan Hardy, $3.30 on Gono @ -330, lost $3.30. This was the fight that stung the most. There was little doubt in my mind that Gono would take this one with his crafty style. As far as I know, Hardy hasn't done much in his career other than knee Yoshida really hard in the groin. Its even more unfortunate that I can't seem to find the fight to watch.

Brandon Vera vs. Keith Jardine, $5.00 on Vera @ -165, lost $5.00. The minute Jardine took down Vera, I knew I was in trouble. Even though Vera didn't gas out, he was still timid and never managed to put Jardine under any pressure. I wasn't all that impressed by either fighter, as neither of them seemed willing to pull the trigger.

Michael Bisping vs. Chris Leben, $4.00 on Bisping @ -200, won $2.00. This fight went down as I expected, with Bisping using superior technique to frustrate Leben. He effectively peppered Leben with shots throughout all three round, and Leben essentially fought the same way he usually does, constantly throwing huge bombs.

On the whole, I ended down $3.55, leaving me down $8.71 in total. UFC 90 is coming up next week, and will hopefully provide an opportunity to rebound. Fights that I'm keeping an eye on are Silva vs. Cote (currently -650 on Bodog), Koscheck vs. Alves, and Leites vs. McFedries.

The FanPosts are solely the subjective opinions of Bloody Elbow readers and do not necessarily reflect the views of Bloody Elbow editors or staff.

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I'm not an expert but...

I feel as though the lower on the talent ladder you go with these bets, the more likely it is that you are going to lose out. For instance, Gono and Hardy are both decent enough fighters but obviously they are not top tier. Putting 3.30 on Gono is not very efficient considering the higher chance of an upset. A buck or two would have sufficed, and if you really wanted to play the remainder you should throw it on a “sure win” like Bisping.

As for 90, I’d throw a decent chunk behind Silva (it’s that “Sure win” thing). The question regarding the other big fights is who will be able to implement their gameplan. To me, I see Alves overpowering Koscheck and Leites wiling out on McFedries on the ground.

by KneeToTheFace on Oct 19, 2008 10:11 PM EDT reply actions

I definitely don’t think Bisping was a “sure win”. In fact, I thought Gono had a better chance to win it. I’ll probably be putting money on Silva as the fight comes closer, as long as the line stays better than -700.

MMA Sportsbetting Record: 16-15-2, -5.15u
Biggest Win: Marquardt vs. Kampmann, bet 5u on Marquardt @ -125. Won 4u.
Biggest Loss: Liddell vs. Evans, bet 9u on Liddell @ -260. Lost 9u.

by Carl P on Oct 19, 2008 10:33 PM EDT up reply actions

What's the upside?

There’s absolutely no point in betting on Silva at -700.

Are going to bet 50+ bucks to win 7 dollars?

It is a sure thing but these things are where people go broke.

I’m much more content and playing the close fights and live underdogs.

Allan's World of Music

Sport Chit Chat

by achengy on Oct 20, 2008 3:11 AM EDT up reply actions

I was gonna lay down enough money to win $1 if the line is better than -700. $7 isn’t that much to put at risk, and the fight is as close to a lock as you’ll ever see in MMA. I agree that I get more enjoyment out of close fights and live dogs, but I really think the line here should be much steeper than it already is.

MMA Sportsbetting Record: 16-15-2, -5.15u
Biggest Win: Marquardt vs. Kampmann, bet 5u on Marquardt @ -125. Won 4u.
Biggest Loss: Liddell vs. Evans, bet 9u on Liddell @ -260. Lost 9u.

by Carl P on Oct 20, 2008 3:53 AM EDT up reply actions

well you know what im going to say...

risk 7 bucks to win $1?

i would just stick to betting close matches

i find that I (as well as your posted results) lose money on favorites.

I lost huge money on Rampage. Many people lost it on Liddell. And for what upside? Not much…

Allan's World of Music

Sport Chit Chat

by achengy on Oct 20, 2008 8:20 PM EDT up reply actions

In good gambling strategy, there is nothing inherently wrong on betting on heavy favorites. Sure, the payoff is less, but the risk is less. The key is to find a fight where you think the odds posted are off, and you have an advantage over the books. Adjust your bet appropriately, depending on how large or small your perceived edge is.

In this case, I think there is quite a large edge on playing Silva (i.e., the bookies are giving Cote a much better chance than he deserves), so a bet of $7 on Silva is less risky than a bet of maybe $3 on Josh Koscheck, even though I’m wagering less money. Sure, sometimes you’ll lose on the heavy favorite, but that’s the name of the game.

MMA Sportsbetting Record: 16-15-2, -5.15u
Biggest Win: Marquardt vs. Kampmann, bet 5u on Marquardt @ -125. Won 4u.
Biggest Loss: Liddell vs. Evans, bet 9u on Liddell @ -260. Lost 9u.

by Carl P on Oct 20, 2008 9:47 PM EDT up reply actions

Well I only say it's not worth it because

of the $100 bankroll. The point of your experiment is to work with betting that fits into the range on your bankroll. – Worrying about a massive favorite I believe isn’t one of them.

Random deviations do occur.

I’m more of a value guy, while Silva is all but expected to TKO Cote within a minute, is tying $7 into Anderson better then trying up (and potentially more earning) money that could be won elsewhere?

Allan's World of Music

Sport Chit Chat

by achengy on Oct 21, 2008 12:41 AM EDT up reply actions

Nothing you said in this post is correct.

1) On the most basic of complaints, I don’t believe Carl has come close to betting $20 on an individual card, so “tying up” $7 (or roughly 7% of his bankroll) restricts him from doing anything. Plus, the fight is in a week. He’s not going to be missing out on any uber value bets between now and then.

2) He is working within his bankroll. A $7 bet on Silva is well within the $100 he has set aside.

3) “Random deviations do occur”. OK? But if Carl is thinks Anderson Silva is a 9-1 favorite over Patrick Cote, but he only needs to lay 6.5-1….that’s a lot of value. And successful gambling is all about finding value!

4) You are not a value guy as expressed above. You’re post more closely identifies with the question of the utility of a $7 to win $1 bet.

5) I don’t understand why you are defensive about reading up on the topics I suggested. I’m not the end-all, be-all, but I think I’ve done a quality job proving my ability to handicap MMA and, at the least, sharing my knowledge of gambling (which I believe I am on expert on relative to the MMA blogosphere). You’re only hurting yourself by remaining ignorant to the very core concepts I brought up if you have any interest in betting MMA (and if you don’t, why are you posting here).

by Mike Fagan on Oct 21, 2008 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions