Gambling Spotlight: UFC 89

It seems fitting that such an unspectacular (though solid) fight card would yield such a poor opportunity for gamblers.  In fact, there's only one line I like a lot on this card.  I made a very early play on Machida/Silva (I belive Machida -280), and that fight would have really made this card a lot more interesting.  Still, it should be a good night of fights, made more exciting by plopping down money that you should be saving for food, water and other essentials necessary for when our economy finally comes crashing down.

But never mind that, let's get into the degeneracy.

Michael Bisping should enter this fight with an advantage in every aspect of MMA outside of straight KO power.  So, the biggest question surrounding this matchup is whether or not Chris Leben can hit Michael Bisping square enough to test his chin.  There's lots of reason to express doubt.  Bisping moves well, does a good job of avoiding damage, and will have a hefty size advantage.  

It's nice to hear Leben talk about how he has changed his life for the better, but I haven't seen a significant change in his game.  His composure in the cage has matured, sure, but when you boil it down, Chris still falls on a brawling style.  He has already demonstrated his ability for being able to continue fighting after being tagged repeatedly on the button, but there are concerns with his cardio.  Chris seems to possess enough heart that he can keep up his pace while gassing, but he noticably fights sloppier in the later minutes of a fight.  To be fair, Leben LOOKS to be in the best shape of his career, but how that translate to his cardio remains to be seen.

According to the UFC's countdown show, Bisping's camp is using Leben's fight with Anderson Silva as a template for their gameplan.  I expect to see a similar result, albeit spread out over three rounds.  Bisping should do a good job of avoiding Leben's striking while countering with peppering shots of his own.  As the fight wears on and Chris begins to tire, the Count should be able to open up his game with more significant blows leading to a stoppage or convincing decision win.

At -220, we'll need a break-even rate of 68.75%.  Bisping should take this a little more than that, so you can get a unit or so on him here.

In a fight between two guys desparately needing wins, it would be hard to find two guys further apart from an aesthetic standpoint.  Brandon Vera comes close to being a prototypical MMA fighter.  With a background in Greco-Roman wrestling and a strong Muay Thai pedigree, Vera looks smooth and flowing at his best.  On the other side of the cage, the "Dean of Mean" has become synonymous with Joe Rogan's use of the word "awkward."  He moves around at a tentative pace, taking steps resembling Soda Popinski.

This will be Vera's second fight at the Light Heavyweight limit and his foray in the division could best be described as "uninspired."  Vera appeared to be weighed down by the weight cut to 205.  He moved sluggishly and threw his punches and kicks without the dynamism that fueled the hype created when he fought at heavyweight.

Jardine's last fight with Wanderlei Silva cemented his reputation for having a sub-par chin.  The loss to Alexander could be brushed aside as a fluke, an underestimation of his opponent.  After the Silva fight, it's fair to say that Keith needs to focus on avoiding shots to his chin.

Assuming his weight cut improves this go around, Vera should win this fight.  Don't be fooled by his last three performances.  He broke his hand early in the Sylvia fight (not to mention fighting a much bigger opponent), he looked OK in the Werdum fight, and he still ended up with a convincing victory against Andy.  Still, bettors, prepare to do some homework.  Watch the weigh-ins on Friday.  If Vera looks to have cut successfully, hit him up for a unit or two depending on where you see the line.  Otherwise, no play.

In his fights with Machida and Glover Teixeira, Sokoudjou looked to be broken after getting hit hard in the face.  I like to call this "Bob Sapp Syndrome."  Unfortunately for "Judo Terry", Cane is a guy who strikes well and hits hard.  

There are a number of other concering things on Sokoudjou's side.  In addition to questions about his heart, he looked badly gassed at the end of the fight with Machida.  Not only breathing hard, he appeared to lay limp while Machida worked for submissions on top.  His top game did not look good with Machida, who swept him IMMEDIATELY after being put on the floor.  I also have doubts on Team Quest's ability to put together and stick to a solid gameplan.

Cane, on the other hand, is largely unkonwn to the masses who has some very good Muay Thai.  He put on one of the more brutal first round KO's in his last fight with Jason Lambert.  He's very good in the clinch, though I would expect him to try to stay away from that position in this fight.

I should point out the Sok's positives.  He clearly has KO power, knocking out two top level fighters with one punch (well, two punches).   He's extremely athletic, and if he can transition it to MMA, his judo should be very hard to deal with.

Still, I like Cane here.  I think he's good for a two unit play.  I usually don't feel confident in predicting method/round, but I see this as a 2nd round TKO for Banha.

It's hard to find tape on Kelly outside of his last fight with fellow Brit Paul Taylor.  Given the information available, I'd have to say the line is probably close to correct.  Kelly has a perfect record and looked good in the Taylor fight, but Davis has a very well rounded game and a tremendous amount more experience at the major league level.  Davis doesn't have many high level wins, but Kelly looks to be on par with the guy's he HAS beat.  If you need to bet it, hit up Kelly and hope his fight with Taylor was the beginning of a breakout.

I expect Lytle will be able to bully Taylor with his size and strength advantage.  (Side note: Taylor is listed at 6'0" but he didn't look significantly taller than the 5'9" Paul Kelly.  Not sure what that's about).  Since the Ultimate Fighter 4 Finale, all of Lytle's losses have been to big guys, dominant wrestlers, or a combination of the two.  Taylor isn't bringing either to the table.  Chris should be able to bully Taylor in the clinch, leading to a submission or TKO once the fight inevitably hits the floor.  Take Lytle for a unit here.

My Plays:

Michael Bisping -220 2.2u to win 1u *
Luiz Arthur Cane -105 2.45u to win 2.3u
Chris Lytle -350 1.17u to win .3u

* - I accidentally bet Bisping at 1.1u twice, but I'm going to let it ride instead of heding out some to Leben, unless something crazy happens in between now and fight time.

** - I'll also being putting a bet in on Vera depending on how he looks at the weigh-ins.