The $100 Experiment: UFC 89

by Carl P on Oct 16, 2008 2:13 AM EDT Comment 6 comments

Lines are out for UFC 89 on Bodog. Here are my picks for the night:

Brandon Vera vs. Keith Jardine, $5 on Vera @ -165. I managed to pick up Vera when the line first opened up. Right now he's at -180. I still think there's some value on Vera at this point. Reports that he's slimmed down significantly and has a renewed focus are encouraging. I'm hoping he looks a lot less pudgy than he did against Reese Andy. He said the weight cut affected him a lot, and if he's lost body fat, it would definitely make the weight cut less intense. I like Vera over Jardine because of Jardine's loopy style and questionable chin. A muy thai striker with accuracy like Vera should be able to capitalize on that.

Michael Bisping vs. Chris Leben, $4 on Bisping @ -200. Again, I got this at the opening line. Right now, the line is at -240 for Bisping. I like Bisping for much the same reason I like Leben. Leben's wide open fighting stance leaves him vulnerable to Bisping's striking. Bisping won't have to worry much about being taken down or submitted, so if he can outpoint Leben on the feet, or take him down and work some GnP, he should come away with the victory.

Sokoudjou vs. Cane is a very interesting fight. Everyone was hoping the line would open with Cane as the underdog, but most books have it as a pick'em. Bodog lists both fighters at -115. If the line moves above even for Cane, I'll bet on him. Sokoudjou seems to rely mostly on pure athleticism and hasn't shown too much in the way of GnP or submissions. With a muy thai guy like Cane, that could be a problem.

Only other potential value I see is Akihiro Gono @ -330. Can't say much about any of the other fights, but any comments regarding them is welcome.

Over the course of 3 months, I am down $5.16.

The FanPosts are solely the subjective opinions of Bloody Elbow readers and do not necessarily reflect the views of Bloody Elbow editors or staff.

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Let us know how these go.

by Luke Thomas on Oct 16, 2008 9:50 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I have $5 on Jardine and Leben

"My job is a decision-making job, and as a result, I make a lot of decisions." --George W. Bush, The Decider, Lancaster, Pa., Oct. 3, 2007

by lovingmma25 on Oct 16, 2008 10:48 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I'd throw..

a bit on Jim Miller personally. And a good amount on Etim.

Contributing Editor - BloodyElbow.com - SBNation's mixed martial arts headquarters.

by Brent Brookhouse on Oct 16, 2008 12:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I like Jim Miller

and I put some cash down on Vera as well. I think Vera is going to catch Keith sleeping and KO him in the first. I also put down a bet on Etim to beat Stout. I think Stout is getting too much action because of his name and his fights with Spencer.

Carl, it also seems like your letting being down effect the way your betting. You started with small bets – even in relation to your bankroll – and now it seems like they’re getting progressively higher.

by B Money on Oct 17, 2008 12:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree, I have started wagering more on fights, but not necessarily because I’m down. Mostly, I’ve become a little more comfortable with the process of betting MMA. I think I’ve actually become a little more responsible with my bankroll. My very first bet was a $2 play on James Irvin in his fight against Silva. I was enticed by the huge positive number next to his name and did very little analysis. At +350, the bookies assigned Irvin a 22% chance of winning. In reality, he had “a puncher’s chance”, which is probably worth around 10%.

In this case, I genuinely believe I have enough of an edge on both the Vera and the Bisping fights to justify the $5 and $4 bets. Both Vera and Bisping are very game and talented fighters with the appropriate styles to defeat their respective opponents.

Now I’m generally more skittish about betting underdogs… if a fighter is +200 or above, I very rarely bet more than $1 on the dog.

MMA Sportsbetting Record: 16-15-2, -5.15u
Biggest Win: Marquardt vs. Kampmann, bet 5u on Marquardt @ -125. Won 4u.
Biggest Loss: Liddell vs. Evans, bet 9u on Liddell @ -260. Lost 9u.

by Carl P on Oct 17, 2008 1:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs