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FightLines: Lightweights Vol. II

Lwvol2_medium

Gomi <> Aurelio
Hansen <> Aoki
Guida > Thomson > Melendez > Guida
Hansen > Boku > Mitsuoka > Hansen

FightLines: FAQ
FightLines: Lightweights Vol. I

A new champion has been crowned, but did the results of the Dream Lightweight Grand Prix bring any changes to FightLines?  How badly does Roger Huerta's loss to Kenny Florian hurt him?  Who's the number one contender for B.J. Penn's UFC title?  The Fightlines power rankings have been tweaked, but does it do you any good?

Star-divide

- Joachim Hansen entered Dream 5 with little more than a preliminary fight with a very beatable opponent.  He left Japan the winner of a grand prix tournament and Dream's inaugural 70 kg champion.  Yet, he finds himself stuck on the FightLines graph.  The finals victory over Shinya Aoki ends up being washed out by Aoki's gogoplata victory over Hansen at Pride's Shockwave 2006.  This leaves us with a champion who could conceivably defend his belt against a wide array of challengers.  However, the two most fitting matchups involve a rematch with rising star Eddie Alvarez and a trilogy with Aoki. 

- Alvarez, meanwhile, looks to be set for a fight with Nick Diaz for the recently vacated EliteXC Lightweight Championship.  While an intriguing fight for a few different reasons, it's a fight I expect Alvarez to win convincingly.  A much more relevant fight would be with Strikeforce Champion Josh Thomson.  Thomson is currently riding an 8 fight win streak including a victory over the former darling of non-UFC American lightweights, Gilbert Melendez.  An Alvarez-Thomson fight would bring greater clarity to the muddled division outside of the UFC and Dream.

- Over in the UFC, current champ B.J. Penn looks to be shelved from 155 action with a showdown involving Georges St. Pierre on the horizon.  This gives Joe Silva and Dana White ample time to sort out the pecking order for the title.  They have put together a nice little pseudo-tournament pitting Sean Sherk and Tyson Griffin together at UFC 90, while Joe Stevenson and Kenny Florian battle at UFC 91.  I assume a Florian win locks him into a fight with Penn.  A Griffin victory and Florian defeat, however, might catapult Griffin into the spotlight.  And in the case of Joe Stevenson and Sean Sherk emerging victorious, one can only guess how the division pans out from there.

- Roger Huerta, once one of the most heavily pushed fighters in the UFC, now appears to be in the doghouse following his loss to Florian and recent comments about fighter pay.  The UFC will be making a huge mistake if they give Huerta the Andrei Arlovski treatment.  Whatever problems exist between fighter and organization, Huerta still provides enormous value to the UFC.  He's young, he's exciting, he's arguably the most handsome fighter in the company, and he potentially brings in a demographic sorely missing from the regular audience.  I would like to see him matched up with "Mr. 209" Nate Diaz.  This is an example of picture perfect matchmaking.  You have two guys in the same tier of the division (though with one on the rise and the other have fallen a bit), both have fairly big names, they have heart, they're exciting, and they both love to fight.  It's a fight that could headline a Fight Night or be a supporting fight on a pay-per-vew main card.

Experimental Power Rankings

Name RatingPLUS
1 Shinya Aoki 1.522
2 Gesias Cavalcante 1.415
3 Eddie Alvarez 1.413
4 Takanori Gomi 1.391
5 B.J. Penn 1.261
6 Gray Maynard 1.239
7 Andre Amade 1.118
8 Frank Edgar 1.083
9 Sean Sherk 0.984
10 Caol Uno 0.974

RatingPLUS = (((Bwins -Bloss) / (Bwins + Bloss + Aloss) + 1) / 2) + ((Bwins/Fighters) - (Bloss/Fighters * 2))

Key

Bwins - Beatwins, the number of fighters an individual has paths to below them on the FightLines graph

Bloss - Beatlosses, the number of fighters an individual has paths to above them on the FightLines graph

Aloss - Ambiguous Losses, losses that have been looped out that leaves two fighters without a path to each other

Fighters - Total Fighters, the number of fighters on the graph minus the fighter in question

Comment 12 comments  |  1 recs  | 

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ooo fun

I love these.
Interesting that Penn is ranked so low in the power rankings.

by Kid Nate on Oct 12, 2008 11:54 PM EDT reply actions  

Do the calculations only apply to fights in the weight class? Penn may be fifth in the power rankings, but I don’t see him losing to anyone above him, nor do I think that they could have held their own against larger fighters like GSP. (Hugs BJ’s nuts tighter)

What measurements are we looking at in the Power Rankings, anyway? There’s a .548 spread between 1 & 10 – is that a lot? Practically even?

Ever tried. Ever failed. No matter. Try Again. Fail again. Fail better. -Samuel Beckett

by Scott C. Broussard on Oct 13, 2008 12:25 AM EDT reply actions  

The power rankings are based entirely off the graph, which only involve fights in the weight class.

Penn is hurt by a couple things. Namely, only two fights in the division over the 3 year time frame. Second, for whatever reason, there are more fighters on the “Japanese” side of the graph (appropriately on the east). Once guys like Danzig, Tavares, etc. get more fights with the upper tier, the guys at the top will benefit.

I’ll show a range of top to bottom when I get a chance.

by Mike Fagan on Oct 13, 2008 12:34 AM EDT reply actions  

Good points

In the UFC’s lightweight division, many of them haven’t fought each other in #1-Contender style matches like in other weights, so the lines are probably simpler. One of Penn’s wins, too, was over Pulver, who is now at 145, so he wouldn’t apply, right?

Ever tried. Ever failed. No matter. Try Again. Fail again. Fail better. -Samuel Beckett

by Scott C. Broussard on Oct 13, 2008 1:07 AM EDT up reply actions  

Pulver’s record in the time period considered:

W – Arai
W – Escovedo
L – Lauzon
L – Penn
W – Swanson
L – Pulver

Pulver isn’t ranked in the top 25 and he only beat one fighter in the top 25, hence he doesn’t appear on the graph.

by Mike Fagan on Oct 13, 2008 1:35 AM EDT up reply actions  

Damn – every time I ask a question, you immediately have the facts & figures to answer it. Do you bet on MMA with this knowledge, and are you profitable? See, I have college loans to pay…

Ever tried. Ever failed. No matter. Try Again. Fail again. Fail better. -Samuel Beckett

by Scott C. Broussard on Oct 13, 2008 4:01 AM EDT up reply actions  

I bet on MMA (in fact, I do gambling articles on this very site!), but I don’t use FightLines data for it. I don’t think it has much application for that.

by Mike Fagan on Oct 13, 2008 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

HUH?

Pulver lost to Pulver? Faber? And let me apologize for correcting you, you’re obviously very informed, and add much more to the content and quality of this sight

by DUGASWARRIOR on Oct 13, 2008 4:40 AM EDT reply actions  

He meant Faber.

http://mma4real.net/

by Tha Realness on Oct 13, 2008 9:37 AM EDT reply actions  

FIGURED AS MUCH

Didnt want anyone else to be confused

by DUGASWARRIOR on Oct 13, 2008 9:50 AM EDT reply actions  

Thanks Realness. He lost to Faber, obv.

by Mike Fagan on Oct 13, 2008 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

Damnit Mike!!

BJ #5?? Now I’m not going to be able to sleep tonight!!!

Seriously, excellent work, as always. much appreciated!

http://eliotmarshall.com/

by BJJDenver on Oct 14, 2008 12:26 AM EDT reply actions  

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