Early UFC Betting Lines

by Brent Brookhouse on Dec 31, 2007 12:17 PM EST in News Comment 4 comments

Courtesy of Bodoglife.com

UFC 80 - Jan. 19

Gabriel Gonzaga -280
Fabricio Werdum +220

Kendall Grove -500
Jorge Rivera +300

BJ Penn -285
Joe Stevenson +225

UFC Fight Night - Jan. 23

Patrick Cote -120
Drew McFedries -110

Nate Diaz -150
Alvin Robinson +120

Mike Swick -175
Josh Burkman +135

UFC 81 - Feb. 2

Thales Leites +115
Nate Marquardt -145

Brock Lesnar -175
Frank Mir +145

0 recs | Comment 4 comments

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Re: Early UFC Betting Lines

Wow, Werdum is a no brainer at those odds. and if Alvin Robinson gets to +200 I'll put some money there as well. He's got the perfect skill set to beat Diaz.

by Kid Nate on Dec 31, 2007 2:08 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Early UFC Betting Lines

I put money on Werdum already. And I'm waiting for the Robinson odds to keep going up. So we're on the same page.

by Brent Brookhouse on Dec 31, 2007 5:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Why Werdum? Their first fight was basically just an exercise in showing how gassing out can cost you a fight. Gonzaga's just levels above and beyond Werdum at this point. He's got better striking, better ground control, and he's not going to get subbed or put on his back by Werdum. In addition, if the fight gets to the ground, Werdum's going to get introduced to elbows, which may mess up his game as it has to many other Pride ex-pats who love to hold their opponents wrists as defense against GnP.

by ilostmydog on Dec 31, 2007 6:26 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Early UFC Betting Lines

What I look for when gambling is value. I think the odds are too far in Gonzaga's direction. If you're asking me right now who I think will win the fight I'd probably say Gonzaga. But Werdum's odds are out of whack with what I think they should be...so I see value there. The reason why I always preach only betting if you can afford to lose is because I gamble based on value not only on "fighter a is better than fighter b." This means that I do lose, but I also come out of 95% of MMA events I gamble on with more money than I had going in.

by Brent Brookhouse on Dec 31, 2007 8:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs