Could It Be Succesful?

by Michael Rome on Dec 16, 2007 9:19 PM EST in News Comment 3 comments

Adam Swift has a nice long post about Fedor/Randy and cooperation over at MMA Payout. I think the overall gist of the column is right: The damage from letting another group do this fight is bigger than the potential damage of running the fight and Fedor winning. However, I think he assumes too much in terms of how big the fight will be if another group does it:

Couture-Fedor, with the proper television build, is the biggest fight on the horizon in the industry....Given the names rumored to be involved and the possibility of strong television support, I believe Couture-Emelianenko has a strong chance to become the first successful non-UFC pay-per-view in the history of the industry.

As of right now, television is the key. M-1 has no meaningful television. Last year, Fedor/Lindland, which had tons of internet and hardcore fan hype, did an abysmal 15,000 buys, and lost a ton of money. Randy is obviously a bigger name than Lindland, but I find it highly unlikely that the show will do any sort of big number. The highest I could imagine is something like 80,000, which would be a HUGE money loser given the money necessary to put the show together.

I think the rumors M-1 people spread about TV interest from places like ESPN are complete bullshit. As far as we know right now, M-1 "global" is Fedor and a few of his buddies. I can't be sure of the ESPN or HBO rumors, but a relative of mine that is a higher up at NBC told me they have "no interest in putting on some unknown group." I don't expect them to make it onto any major TV anytime soon. If the fight happens the hype would probably be exclusively on the internet and HDnet.

I also think that Fedor's team and M-1 are every bit as much an obstacle to co-promotion as Dana is. If Fedor came into the UFC for a fight and lost, his value would be so far diminished as to eliminate his drawing power almost entirely. He would be "just another fighter", and it would be the end of M-1. I'd be surprised if they even want the fight right now.

Another obstacle to this fight happening is the possibility that the UFC will not crown a new heavyweight champ. If that is the case, Randy will still be champ at the end of july, and the champions clause will kick in, extending his commitment by another year. I have a feeling this will be a long and protracted conflict.

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Re: Could It Be Succesful?

Unless Monte Cox was blowing steam, he confirmed that ESPN was at least talking to them in a Sherdog interview. Of course, we don't really know how far they actually got, maybe not even to a point of what events they would broadcast.

by Leland Roling on Dec 17, 2007 8:34 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Could It Be Succesful?

"Successful", Hell yeah!

Cox and the M-1 boys tried to set up a deal with Dana to put Fyodor against Couture and Dana balked at it.

Money talks and M-1 already made the first move... now it's Dana's turn to stop being a prick and let MMA be bigger than "Ultimate Fighting" for a minute in time by allowing Couture to fight Fedor in a co-promotion freakshow "non-title bout".

Are you down with the sickness?

by MMA Fever on Dec 17, 2007 10:55 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Could It Be Succesful?

Alright here goes...

Could it be a success? Sure...of course, a lot of people would love to see this fight. I for one would love to see it, with or without the UFC.

But I guess i would like to look at it from the UFC's business vantage point.

Why in the hell would the UFC want to introduce M-1 to their market (US)? Hosting this fight is the equivalent of asking Coke (market leader) to endorse a new competitor (think red bull) in their own market. M-1 asked Bodog for equal billing when fedor fought lindland and fedor's management got very upset when they were not treated equally. Dana has indicated that a portion of the sticking point involving Fedor's contract negotiations were the "co-promotion" clauses. There is no doubt that Fedor's management/M-1 Global will ask for nothing less than 50-50 co-promotion credit and frankly the risk for the UFC in the LONG RUN, not the short term is much greater.
The risk of the UFC promoting this fight and having couture lose (which in my opinion is likely, despite Dana's claims) is huge. If Couture loses in a 50-50 co-promoted bout the UFC risks introducing a player (M-1) in their market who by all accounts is largely unknown outside of the MMA community. Right now M-1 has not put on a show of their own, has not provided a substantial list of fighters, shown their production values, collaborated with anyone beyond having Fedor fight Hong man Choi (Big Whup), or even proved themselves credible. Lets assume the show happens late summer, by that point M-1 may or may not have 2-3 events under its belt and we don't know how those will do.
The Argument in the article that the UFC needs to collaborate with anyone is anything but fact at THIS point in time. The open model companies are not doing well financially (IFL and EliteXC in particular). If these companies were more successful at this point then maybe I would think that the UFC needs to look into opening themselves up to collabos, but no one else is making money and its not a slight coincidence.

If I were in the UFC's shoes I would let Randy go and have the fight in M-1 and just take the L. If Randy Wins, the UFC still wins because Randy will always be considered a UFC branded fighter even after the bitter end.