UFC 106: Forrest Griffin vs. Tito Ortiz 2 Predictions
by Luke Thomas on Nov 20, 2009 4:56 PM EST
in News
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UFC 106: November 21, 2009
Mandalay Bay Events Center
Las Vegas, Nevada
Main card:
Forrest Griffin vs. Tito Ortiz
Luke Thomas: I just have no idea what to expect from Ortiz. I also expect Griffin to show the same weakness in his takedown defense that has come to be a liability he just can't shed, but I expect him to stuff Oritz's shots enough to do damage standing. Griffin by decision.
Kid Nate: Tito is a huge X factor here. Has the back surgery really had a dramatic impact? How rusty will he be? In their first fight, Tito crushed Forrest for one round, edged him in the second and faded in the third. I'm going to flip a coin and pick Tito Ortiz by decision.
Brent Brookhouse: This is just such a hard fight to come back from a layoff and surgery to. I probably would pick any dangerous striker over Griffin, but Tito isn't that. Maybe Tito shocks and is explosive in his wrestling and just pounds on Griffin from the top position, but Forrest has very overlooked BJJ should he end up on bottom. I just don't see too many risks being there for Forrest while I do for Tito. Forrest Griffin by one sided decision.
Michael Rome: I think the surgery matters, but not the way everyone else does. I think Ortiz will be stilted and slow. Even if it makes him better, I think Forrest is the better fighter. Have we all forgot how far Forrest has come since their first fight just because he got his clock cleaned by Anderson Silva? Forrest Griffin via TKO, round 2.
Mike Fagan: I think this fight looks a lot like their first one, except more of the last part of it. I'm not sure Tito is as "done" as I've seen some people suggest, but three more years on a bad back (even on a light fight schedule) is no good. And while both guys are largely the same fighters are they were at UFC 59, Forrest has matured and refined his game in the time. Forrest Griffin by decision.
Chris Nelson: I'd argue that this is almost an impossible fight to pick, given the laundry list of unknowns and intangibles. I see a determined Tito Ortiz doing everything in his power to get the "W" here, even grinding something out on the floor. Ortiz via decision.
Eugene Schelfaut: I don't know Tito Ortiz' current performance level given the surgery and the time spent out of the cage. And that is all I need to not know to pick Forrest Griffin by TKO, Round 3.
Leland Roling: Tito Ortiz's back is the major question here. Was his back actually hurt that badly in his last few fights? Did it really affect him that much? Griffin's striking should be enough to win him a decision if Ortiz can't take down Griffin, but I'm going to bank on Ortiz's training with Roach combined with a healthy back to push him through to victory here. Tito Ortiz via decision.
Nick Thomas: Ortiz said he was 60% in the last fight. If that's true... Ortiz should take this. But we have to factor in the ring rust. But that can be countered by Griffin just getting married. It'll be a close fight, but I going with Tito by decision.
Josh Koscheck vs. Anthony Johnson
Luke Thomas: I think eventually Johnson is going to get taken to the floor, but I'm betting over the long run Johnson can find a way to score enough points/land a KO bomb while defending the takedown enough. Johnson by TKO, round 2.
Kid Nate: These two have trained together in the past and word is that Koscheck had his way with Johnson. I hate relying on Josh Koscheck to fight smart, but he's got to know that Johnson is too formidable on the feet to stand and trade with. Koscheck by decision.
Brent Brookhouse: If...IF Josh fights smart and tries to turn this into a drawn out wrestling match I think he can win a decision. I don't fully trust Johnson's gas tank at his size in a really physical fight. But despite what he says Josh is in love with his striking and you just do not want to strike with Anthony Johnson. AJ will catch Josh early and that will be that. Anthony Johnson by KO, round 1.
Michael Rome: The safe bet is Kos, but I'm going with a changing of the guard. I think Kos wants to trade, and he can win standing, but the odds are against him. Johnson just has to land once, and I think he will. Anthony Johnson via KO, round 1.
Mike Fagan: I see this looking a lot like Alves/Kos, though Johnson has a couple more question marks than Thiago. And while I love superheel Josh Koscheck, Anthony Johnson makes my pants feel funny when I watch him in the cage. Anthony Johnson by KO, round 2.
Chris Nelson: Koscheck won't be brazen enough to trade with Johnson for too long, but I don't think it'll matter. Johnson's proving too much for almost anyone to handle at 170. Johnson via TKO, round one.
Eugene Schelfaut: Josh Koscheck will not go for the takedown in this fight, I think. Anthony Johnson by TKO, Round 1.
Leland Roling: If Koscheck tries to trade, he'll get busted. But if he decides that this fight is a wrestler's match in which he can control Johnson on the floor, he'll wear Johnson down quickly and gas him out. Josh Koscheck via decision.
Nick Thomas: Will Koscheck go for the takedown? I sure hope so. But he won't. Because of that I'm going with Johnson by TKO.
Amir Sadollah vs. Phil Baroni
Luke Thomas: As underwhelming as Sadollah has been, he's not the one who went from beating Amar Suloev to losing handily to Joe Riggs. Amir Sadollah by submission.
Kid Nate: It's almost as if the UFC re-signed Phil Baroni strictly to give Amir Sadollah a gimme fight. Amir should survive the early blitz and go on to tap out a gassed NYBA. Sadollah by submission.
Brent Brookhouse: Much as dislike Baroni the fact stands that Amir showed some big ol' holes in his striking game against Hendricks. I also don't know that he has the wrestling to force the fight to the ground. But, at the same time Baroni has legendarily bad cardio and looks like death from what people who have seen him have been saying as well as in any video interview shows. So it comes down to this in my mind: can Baroni catch Amir in the first couple minutes of the fight or does Amir take him to the deep waters of the two and a half minute mark? Amir by submission, round 2.
Michael Rome: Baroni is dangerous for 2 minutes, but his power is overstated these days. Amir is the more skilled fighter, and will run away with this in the second and third. Amir via submission, round 3.
Mike Fagan: For as much as I hate Mike Swick for no reason, I love Phil Baroni for even less. And I'm not particularly sold on a guy with two professional fights on his record. Early stoppage or not, Johny Hendricks was lighting him up on his feet. Plus, how does Sadollah drag Baroni to the ground? Phil Baroni by TKO, round 3.
Chris Nelson: Can't say I understand the matchmaking here at all. Is the UFC trying to bury one of their most recent Ultimate Fighter(rrrr)s? Because, aside from the cardio issues which everyone's mentioned, I don't know how Baroni loses this fight. Baroni via TKO, round one.
Eugene Schelfaut: I hate this fight in that it makes me think of Phil Baroni as the potential victor. However, against that, I'll take as my pick Sadollah, who will be submitting a gassed Baroni early in the 1st. Amir Sadollah by armbar, Round 1.
Leland Roling: The argument that Phil Baroni has only two minutes of conditioning and that he'll gas on his way to the cage has long been over. His fight with Riggs... he displayed some slightly improved cardio by lasting through the first round, and he's still a formidable force in punching your face in within the first few minutes. Sadollah will have to weather the storm, but I'm taking Phil Baroni purely based on my own fandom. THE BEST EVA!! Phil Baroni via TKO, Round 1.
Nick Thomas: Baroni is back in the UFC but has anything has changed? I'm sure Sadollah plans to test Baroni's gas tank in the later rounds so Baroni will have to end it early. Baroni by TKO.
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira vs. Luis Cane
Luke Thomas: Unless Cane makes a positional error, this is his fight to lose. I think Lil' Nog's boxing is hugely overrated and Cane's aggressive but thoughtfully tactical approach to fights will be the difference. Cane by decision.
Kid Nate: This could be an epic war, pitting the up and coming Cane against the old PRIDE warrior Little Nog. Nogueira's boxing should capitalize on Cane's mistakes standing and he'll own Cane on the ground. Nogueira by submission.
Brent Brookhouse: Wow, this is a hard fight to call. I like Cane's style but I think he fits well into the "guys Nogueira eats alive" category. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira by decision.
Michael Rome: Real interesting fight. Cane has a great chin and slick muay thai, but he has terrible head movement and tends to get hit a lot. So far he's gotten away with it, will he be able to eat Nogueira's straight lefts with no issues? I think Nog brings too much to the table. Nogueira via decision.
Mike Fagan: As others have said, this is an awesome fight. Really solid matchmaking, though Cane's camp has come out and said they don't really want to fight someone Luis looks up to. And it's gonna be a tough fight for them. Nogueira's shown what he can do to more dynamic and athletic Muay Thai guys, and Cane is way more plodding that "Shogun" Rua. I don't expect this to hit the floor, but if it does, that should be Nogueira's domain. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira by decision.
Chris Nelson: Joe Silva, forcing the Brasileiros to pick sides yet again - and with such a tough fight to call, too. Haven't looked at betting lines, but I'd guess Nogueira's coming in a slight favorite. I think "Banha" pulls the upset, with youth and aggression overcoming experience and an (almost always) iron jaw. Cane via decision.
Eugene Schelfaut: I'm ready to be convinced, as I cannot make a choice. I'll go with Antonio Rogerio Nogueira via decision split.
Leland Roling: Fans need to go back and watch Cane vs. Sokoudjou and Cane vs. Cantwell. There are some glaring problems that Cane needs to correct because he won't be able to gut out exchanges that aren't there against a in-and-out boxer like Rogerio. Rogerio will add to the laundry list of Ed Soares fighters at the top. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira via decision.
Nick Thomas: Such a great fight here. Nogueira should have the better stand up but Cane has the UFC experience. If we factor in Nog's debut jitters... I'm going with Cane by decision.
Paulo Thiago vs. Jacob Volkmann
Luke Thomas: I take seriously the wrestling ability of Volkmann and worry he might get himself in trouble going head to head with Thiago, but I suspect he can get the job done. Volkmann by decision.
Kid Nate: This is Thiago's big chance to show what he can do against someone who is NOT a top ten welterweight. Volkmann is coming in surrounded by a cloud of hype about his wrestling abilities, but IMO if Thiago can almost catch Jon Fitch, he can tap Volkmann. Thiago by submission.
Brent Brookhouse: After the Fitch fight I'm sold on Thiago being legitimately dangerous. Paulo Thiago by submission, round 2.
Michael Rome: Volkmann is talented on the ground, unfortunately for him he's going against someone better on the ground. Thiago via submission, round 2.
Mike Fagan: A year ago, Paulo Thiago was the nobody that came out of nowhere to KO Josh Koscheck. Now, Jacob Volkmann is that same guy. It's always hard to pick a fight when both guys have little experience against top competition. With that in mind, I go with the guy who's been here before. Paulo Thiago by decision.
Chris Nelson: Hard one to call, having never seen Volkmann fight, but the BJJ credentials of these two tells me this could turn into a boxing match. I'll take a flyer on the rangier Thiago handing "Christmas" his first loss. Thiago via TKO, round two.
Eugene Schelfaut: Christmas will be coming only once this year. Paulo Thiago via submission, Round 1.
Leland Roling: I have to switch my stance once again. After reviewing some footage, Volkmann's wrestling is very strong, but he also has multiple ways in which he can gain takedowns and punish his opponents. I don't think he'll be able to finish Thiago, but I think he can control him and wear him out on his way to a decision victory. Jacob Volkmann via decision.
Nick Thomas: I am buying into the hype about Volkmann. Like Rosholt, I think Volkmann can grind out a win as long as he doesn't get caught. Volkmann by decision.
0 comments | 0 recs |
Quote of the Day: Tito Ortiz Talks Anderson Silva
by Kid Nate on Nov 20, 2009 4:02 PM EST
in News
8 comments
Chad Dukes: "Anderson Silva has expressed interest in fighting you, and that's a guy that's looking for a big payday. Clearly you pull in pay-per-view numbers, people pay to watch you fight. There's a guy like that that wants to fight you, you've seen the strengths he has, you see how tough he is for people to try to fight.
Tito Ortiz: "Well... it's funny that Anderson Silva wants to fight me. I guess you know you're famous when a world champion can't get the Pay-Per-View buys and wants to fight someone who gets him more Pay-Per-View buys. That says a lot about my name, and I've got to thank him for calling me out, that's awesome."
Tito Ortiz appearing on the Chad Dukes Show on 106.7 The Fan in Washington, D.C.
8 comments | 1 recs |
UFC 106 Preview: Healthy Tito Ortiz Makes Return in Rematch with Forrest Griffin
by Leland Roling on Nov 20, 2009 3:33 PM EST
in Events
6 comments
UFC 106's main event light heavyweight tilt will feature the return of what many consider to be one of the most influential fighters among the casual fanbase the UFC has ever produced. Tito Ortiz (15-6-1, 14-6-1 UFC) will finally make his return to the ranks of the UFC following a year-and-a-half layoff due to a contract dispute, free agency talks with other promotions, an appearance on The Apprentice, and back surgery. His return match-up will be a rematch of his controversial split decision victory over Forrest Griffin (16-6, 7-4 UFC) back at UFC 59. Ortiz will not only get the opportunity to prove that he's finally back to 100% healthy for this fight, but he'll also be thrown into the mix immediately with the chance to redeem himself of his past loss.
Ortiz will enter this contest riding a 0-2-1 record in his last three appearances in the Octagon. His loss to Lyoto Machida at UFC 84 was easily his worst performance of the three encounters, but many fans still give Ortiz credit for nearly submitting Machida in a triangle choke late in the fight. Ortiz's draw with Rashad Evans, another eventual champion, was mostly blamed on the fact that Ortiz grabbed the fence at one instance during the fight while fending off a takedown. He was deducted a point, and thus the fight was ruled a draw.
Ortiz has blamed the lackluster performances on an ailing back that has bothered him for a number of years and taken the wind out of his sails in terms of explosiveness in his wrestling ability. While it's a debate among some fans whether Ortiz is simply making excuses for his losses, Ortiz did have back surgery to repair his back and has mentioned that it will be at 100% for his bout with Forrest Griffin.
He's also taken it upon himself to improve his skill-set from its mostly one-dimensional form of takedowns and ground and pound to a much more dynamic skill-set in which he can be dangerous in different areas. He trained with Cleber Luciano, a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and Judo, for this fight. You may remember Luciano as one of Christiane "Cyborg" Santos' trainers. Ortiz also employed the services of famous boxing trainer Freddie Roach to improve his techniques in the boxing department for this fight.
6 comments | 0 recs |
Matt Serra (16-6-0 MMA, 6-6 UFC) vs. Frank Trigg (19-7-0 MMA, 2-4 UFC) set for UFC 109, Feb 6th:
Rumored card so far:
- Anderson Silva vs. Vitor Belfort [in jeopardy]
- Randy Couture vs. Mark Coleman
- Matt Hughes vs. TBA
- Matt Serra vs. Frank Trigg
- Demian Maia vs. Dan Miller
- Renzo Gracie vs. TBA
- Rob Emerson vs. Phillipe Nover
- Rolles Gracie vs. Mostapha Al Turk
- Melvin Guillard vs. Ronnys Torres
USAT/SBN November Consensus MMA Rankings: Featherweight
by Luke Thomas on Nov 20, 2009 2:59 PM EST
in Rankings
12 comments
| Rank | Fighter | % | Promotion | Last Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mike Brown | 100 | WEC | 1 |
| 2 | Urijah Faber | 90 | WEC | 2 |
| 3 | Jose Aldo | 84 | WEC | 3 |
| 4 | Bibiano Fernandes | 75 | DREAM | 5 |
| 5 | Hatsu Hioki | 73 | WVR | 4 |
| 6 | Leonard Garcia | 71 | WEC | 7 |
| 7 | Rafael Assuncao | 59 | WEC | 6 |
| 8 | Marlon Sandro | 55 | WVR | 11 |
| 9 | Michihiro Omigawa | 54 | WVR | 19 |
| 10 | Mackens Semerzier | 48 | WEC | 10 |
| 11 | Hiroyuki Takaya | 46 | DREAM | 12 |
| 12 | Wagnney Fabiano | 43 | WEC | 8 |
| 12 | Josh Grispi | 43 | WEC | 13 |
| 14 | Masanori Kanehara | 39 | WVR | 17 |
| 15 | Takeshi Inoue | 37 | Vale Tudo Japan | 9 |
| 16 | Joe Soto | 34 | Tachi Palace Fights | 15 |
| 17 | Yuji Hoshino | 31 | WVR | 14 |
| 18 | Norifumi Yamamoto | 26 | DREAM | 16 |
| 19 | Takafumi Otsuka | 25 | DEEP | 18 |
| 20 | Joe Warren | 20 | DREAM | 26 |
| 21 | Jameel Massouh | 19 | WEC | 19 |
| 22 | Deividas Taurosevicius | 17 | WEC | NR |
| 23 | Chan Sung Jung | 15 | WVR | 30 |
| 24 | Luis Palomino | 15 | G-Force Fights | NR |
| 25 | Masakazu Imanari | 14 | DEEP | 22 |
| 25 | Kazuyuki Miyata | 14 | DREAM | 25 |
Old Man Strength still rules the day.
American Top Team's #1 Mike Thomas Brown may be 34 but continues to be the top-ranked fighter in MMA's featherweight division. As of the time of this writing, he is set to defend his title against #3 Jose Aldo at WEC 44 on November 18th in Las Vegas. As many have suggested, no one has truly challenged the Novia Uniao black belt, but the rising Aldo has also never faced the type of fighter that Brown is nor this level of competitor in professional MMA.
If you follow him on Twitter, then you know #2 Urijah Faber is back in the gym and training like a mad man after breaking his hand against #1 Mike Brown in their epic rematch. The Team Alpha Male leader is set to take on #7 Rafael Assuncao at WEC 46.
Making a monster leap into the top five for the second time is DREAM's Featherweight Grand Prix winner #4 Bibiano Fernandes who bested Joe Warren and #11 Hiroyuki Takaya at DREAM's October 6th show.
"The Iron Broomstick" in #5 Hatsu Hioki drops a spot after getting robbed by the judges in his loss to #9 Michihiro Omigawa at Sengoku's November 7th show. Omigawa was supposed to challenge #14 Masanori Kanehara for the title on New Year's Eve, but no word yet as to whether the bout is scrapped.
After besting #21 Jameel Massouh at WEC 42, Greg Jackson-product #6 Leonard Garcia climbs one spot to six. As of the time of this writing, he is set to take on recent featherweight convert Manny Gamburyan at WEC 44.
Landing himself back in the top ten is the Featherweight King of Pancrase #8 Marlon Sandro. After being robbed in a decision loss to Omigawa, the Brazilian rebounded at Sengoku's November show where he knocked out #17 Yuji Hoshino in the first round.
After a shocking triangle choke win, #10 Mackens Semerzier is still sitting in the top ten by besting Novia Unaio product #12 Wagnney Fabiano at WEC 43. As for Semerzier, we don't know when he'll return to action, but it's likely to be sooner rather than later as he sustained virtually no damage in his WEC debut.
12 comments | 0 recs |
Gambling Spotlight: UFC 106
by Mike Fagan on Nov 20, 2009 1:34 PM EST
in News
29 comments
Jokes on everyone else. I had Lifefail by Bacterial Infection, round 1 at +150000.
Since you poor schmucks didn't hit the sweet line, I'll let you in on the other money making opportunities for this Saturday at UFC 106.
|
Forrest Griffin #5 Light Heavyweight |
vs. |
Tito Ortiz #25 Light Heavyweight |
| -132 (Bookmaker) | Best Line | +125 (5Dimes) |
| 30 | Age | 34 |
| 6'3" | Height | 6'2" |
| 16 - 6 - 0 | Record | 15 - 6 - 1 |
| 3 / 7 | TKO / SUB | 8 / 2 |
| Xtreme Couture | Camp | Team Punishment |
| L - Silva (TKO) L - Evans (TKO) W - Jackson (UD) |
Last Three | L - Machida (UD) D - Evans L - Liddell (TKO) |
I liked this fight as a co-main with Lesnar/Carwin, but I think it's pretty bland as a standalone headliner. The redemption angle for Forrest draws interest, but the fight itself shouldn't stray too far from the first. And when you remove the name's involved, their first encounter wasn't particularly impressive.
Nothing and everything has changed since UFC 59. Following a hiccup with Keith Jardine, Griffin defeated "Shogun" Rua and Quinton "Rampage" Jackson to briefly stand atop the 205 pound division before Rashad Evans derailed his success. The superfight with Anderson Silva that followed ended with Forrest living up to his name.
Ortiz went on to beat up Ken Shamrock not once, but twice before Chuck Liddell obliterated him for a second time. He later drew Rashad Evans in a dreadful fight, followed by getting the Mexican beaten out of him by Lyoto Machida at UFC 84. Since then, Ortiz has been busy teasing Strikeforce, having trouble speaking for Affliction, and telling panhandlers to get a job (sir).
Their style and ability have gone nearly unchanged. Forrest has refined his brawling style to a more sophisticated barrage of high-volume strikes. Besides that, neither guy has made significant strides since 2005. Ortiz and Griffin still don't have KO power because they seem unable to throw from their core. Ortiz will still try to hit more doubles than Albert Pujols. And with their cardio and workrate, we should expect a pretty high-paced 205 bout.
The difference in 2009 is that both guys are three-plus years older. That means three more years of strain on Ortiz's notoriously bad back. It means Forrest has three more years of experience, confidence, and time working with Xtreme Couture. In MMA, three years makes a world of difference.
If you hopped on Griffin when the line opened. Congratulations, you've been paying attention. The line peaked at Griffin -180 before settling at the current price. I like Griffin a lot under -150 and up to just under -200. Ortiz will have to repeat the first fight to win this one, and while I think there's a significant chance that happens, it's much less likely in 2009.
29 comments | 0 recs |
Corey Hill fights tonight at Unconquered 1: November Reign
The rumored fight is Corey Hill (2-2) vs. Dave Zitnick (0-1). I hope Corey isn't rushing things.
Strikeforce Challengers V Preview: Kim Couture Battles Kerry Vera, Tyron Woodley Headlines
by Leland Roling on Nov 20, 2009 1:05 PM EST
in Events
10 comments
With UFC 106 looming on Saturday evening, many fans will be itching for some relevant MMA action to get them in the mood for the big event tomorrow. Fortunately for us, Strikeforce has come through to fill your need. The fifth installment of Strikeforce's Challengers series (ShoMMA) will take place this evening from the Memorial Hall in Kansas City, Kansas, and it will air live on Showtime at 11 PM EST (Delayed on the West Coast).
The card will be headlined by a welterweight bout between Missouri wrestling standout and two-time NCAA D-I All-American Tyron Woodley and Kansas City-native and Chinese Kenpo black belt Rudy Bears. Also featured on the card will be a women's bout featuring the same names as the main event from UFC 105. Brandon Vera's wife, Kerry Vera, will battle Randy Couture's former wife, Kim Couture, in a 135 lb. women's division contest. It will only be Vera's second fight and Couture's third fight professionally. Rafael "Feijao" Cavalcante will also make his return against Aaron Rosa on this card.
Welterweight: Tyron Woodley (5-0) vs. Rudy Bears (10-3)
Woodley's NCAA credentials should be the deciding factor in this fight. He has the ability to be a dominating force on the floor, and his submission game is good enough to get him through some of the lower-echelon fights at this stage in his career. There was some criticism of Woodley in the Zach Light fight as Light gave up some pretty bad positions in the first round, and Woodley was unable to sink in submissions that were there for the taking. Regardless of those faults, Woodley is still a rather green competitor who should hopefully show some improvement in this bout.
Bears has a solid Brazilian jiu-jitsu background coupled with the accolades of being a kickboxer who has won regional ISKA events and titles. He'll be looking to pummel Woodley with strikes early, but he should be adept enough to ward off some attempts by Woodley on the ground. The problem is that Woodley's strength and wrestling should be able overcome Bears' jiu-jitsu tactics on his way to a dominating victory. Tyron Woodley should improve his record to 6-0 in this contest.
Women's Division (135 lbs.): Kim Couture (1-1) vs. Kerry Vera (1-0)
I'm really not sure what to say about this fight. Kim Couture looked absolutely awful against both Kim Rose and Lina Kvokov in her previous professional bouts. She actually broke her jaw in half in one of those match-ups and was commended for her toughness. While she definitely showed she was a tough competitor, a jaw breakage doesn't inspire confidence in anyone thinking she'll win against an adept puncher like Vera.
Kerry's debut against Leslie Smith was quite impressive in comparison to that of Couture's debut. She was very quick with her feet, throwing quick lefts and rights and mixing overhands, some decent kicks, and good technique in her delivery. While she didn't show tremendous power, she did manage to land significantly more than her opponent.
Kerry should take this via decision and batter Kim Couture with punches. I don't see how Couture can handle Vera's speed unless she's improved substantially over the last year.
10 comments | 1 recs |
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